All this talk about Porsche has made me go look up some facts and figures. Here's their 2018 annual report summary:
https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/ann...performance/brief-overview-fy-2018-17172.html
(I note that their investor relations web page is basically empty... it took me a while to find it.)
Firstly, they've been growing more than I realized. I thought they were relatively static, but in four years total deliveries went from ~190k to ~256k, 7.9% CAGR.
However:
Macan: 17.8% CAGR (smaller, cheaper crossover form factor; their biggest seller)
Cayenne: 2% CAGR (could be considered a competitor to the Model X?, second biggest seller)
Panamera: 11.5% CAGR (actually was declining for 2014-2017, when a refresh came out and significantly boosted the numbers)
911: 3.9% CAGR
All else: flat or declining.
61% of their deliveries are SUVs (Macan/Cayenne).
Now, the way I see it, the Taycan is internal competition for both the Panamera and the 911. Suppose 1/4 of upgrading customers from those two marques switch to Taycan, that's about 18k customers, but it takes away from their existing customer base at the same time. With margins presumably lower on the Taycan (even with the higher price, that's to be expected for the first year or two), those people are neutral to the bottom line. To get to 40k (as someone suggested) Porsche would have to bring in 22k NEW customers in that part of the market, which is about 30% of their total Panamera/911/Taycan sales in 2018, again over and above their existing loyal customer base. And with very rare exceptions (looking at you, Jay Leno), none of those new customers will come from Tesla.
I don't see that happening. Even at Model S competitive pricing, which it isn't, I still don't see it.
I'll be interested to hear whether Porsche dealers are selling the Taycan the same way other dealers typically sell their electric vehicles, which is: "Wouldn't you rather have this smelly noisemaker? It's cheaper!". Or if they will actually try to sell it?
A successful Taycan furthers Tesla's goal of sustainable transport. In the meantime, Porsche's advertising and market validation (whether successful or not) adds to Tesla's market. Tesla is the winner here.
