Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ReflexFunds]

This is Edward Niedermeyer. Possibly the longest serving TSLAQ veteran and FUD publisher.

He doesn't have any expertise or understanding of battery technology, EV technology or just innovation generally.

Prismatic/pouch cells are most often used for R&D purposes, but this does not mean it is impossible for the chemistry to work in a cylindrical cell.

Yes, building new cell lines will be capital intensive (but we are yet to know how much capex saving Tesla has achieved with its in-house new cell manufacturing designs). But replacing 80 million annual ICE sales is capital intensive and Tesla have strong cash flow and are committed to it.

It's worth noting that while Tesla and Dahn did not invent single crystal (micrometer size scale) NMC 532 cathodes, Dahn's group has been very focussed on researching their properties for several years now. Dahn has published many papers on how to optimise cell properties to get the most from the advantages of the single crystal cathode structure. The key results of Dahn's research are that 1) Single crystal cathode structure can be superior, 2) Ti-based surface coating on the cathode can be helpful - IF 3), they are combined with carefully chosen electrolyte additives.

Dahn and Tesla filed their first patent on choosing electrolyte additives for single crystal NMC532 cells back in July 2017. US20190036171 NOVEL BATTERY SYSTEMS BASED ON TWO-ADDITIVE ELECTROLYTE SYSTEMS

This is not new research for Tesla, they have been on the right track for over two years now and I'm sure behind the scenes they have been working towards commercialisation of this technology. In particular, the biggest obstacle to commercialisation could be affordably manufacturing single crystal NMC or NCA cathode (and ideally for a cylindrical cell format).
I think single crystal cathodes will be most dependent on the cathode powder manufacturing process used (Panasonic/Tesla's cathode powder is largely supplied by Sumitomo), but I would guess the electrode manufacturing process (currently done by Panasonic at GF1) also plays an important role in the formation of a single crystal structure.
I would guess Maxwell's dry electrode manufacturing technology may be helpful here and may be part of the rational for the acquisition (together with the cost reductions of Maxwell's process), but hopefully Tesla has also been working on an in-house cathode powder manufacturing process, or has been partnering with someone like Sumitomo, Umicore or NanoOne on R&D.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Non-affluent people will begin buying Teslas en mass when charging stations become ubiquitous at apartment complexes and not one second sooner. It is by far the number one reason all the young people I know have declined to buy one after riding in mine, and in many cases the ONLY thing stopping them. But it IS a deal breaker for almost all of them. Tesla really ought to be making some kind of huge push to electrify apartment parking spaces.

The model 3 is firmly aimed at that demographic, but the vast majority absolutely will not buy one if they can’t charge it at home. I’m speaking from dozens of first-hand conversations here.

They wouldn’t have to be superchargers - simple 240v chargers would be fine.

And/or, workplace charging, which has the added benefit of aligning charging with the daily solar peak.

 

[Causalien]

Does Tesla Have A Brand-New World-Beating Battery?

The article states Tesla may have to move to a new battery form to take advantage of this breakthrough. Maybe this is EM's 1 million mile battery tech.

Does Tesla Have A Brand-New World-Beating Battery?
"Anyone familiar with Lambert and Electrek's long history of overhyping Tesla has come to expect this kind of hyperbole, but Lambert's reporting leaves out some incredibly important information about the cells that Dahn describes in his recent paper. It's not just that the path from research to industrial-scale manufacturing is long and fraught: Lambert fails to mention that the cells Dahn describes aren't Tesla's unique intellectual property or that Tesla would need to completely re-engineer its entire battery pack architecture to use them. It doesn't take a battery expert to understand these realities and their implications, leaving the reader to wonder why Lambert might have left these details out of his reporting."

This guy lights up Fred Lambert from Electrek........

The Truth Behind Electrek's Shady Alliance with Tesla

"But like the company that it covers so closely, Electrek’s meteoric rise has been dogged by controversy. Though some of these controversies are simply the product of the website’s consistently and aggressively positive position on Tesla, much of the criticism comes from pro-Tesla (and pro-electric vehicle) corners and focuses on independent issues like journalistic ethics, EV fan culture, and personal decorum. Even as Electrek turns every news story into a referendum on Tesla and divides the world into fans and haters, its brazen style is opening new divisions that cut across its black and white worldview."

LOL. Noodlemaker at it again. Be careful, he's going to rile up his TSLAQ twitter followers to help un-blowup SA's oil field.

 

[anthonyj]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^THIS^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

EXACTLY.

Anyone buying a new Lexus/BMW/MBZ, etc., without a very specific use case (such as living in a very remote yurt with no electricity), is PART OF THE PROBLEM.

There are very nice people that don’t live on the internet and know nothing about Tesla... so they go ahead and buy what they already know. Believe me, not everyone uses Twitter and knows what an Elon Musk is. How are they part of the problem? They will buy an EV when their neighbors buy one though

 

[MarcusMaximus]

There are very nice people that don’t live on the internet and know nothing about Tesla... so they go ahead and buy what they already know. Believe me, not everyone uses Twitter and knows what an Elon Musk is. How are they part of the problem? They will buy an EV when their neighbors buy one though

I don’t think that’s who’s meant. Rather, look at all the new Mercedes/Audi’s/BMWs/Porsche’s/etc you still see in, say, Silicon Valley. Those people have no excuse.

 

[Pezpunk]

The investment there is all on the landlord to retain tenants. Not on Tesla. Tesla isn't going to install 240v chargers for one or two customers on private property that isn't available to the public.

Those tenants should be in contact with the landlords and ask them to install chargers or they will move. People who can afford $40k+ EVs are desirable tenants. You should tell every one of those people riding in your car that they should contact their landlord. I have seen plenty of people who rent homes that are willing to install chargers for all those reasons. Don't see why it would be any different for apartments.

This is sure-to-fail nonsense. Tenants are not going to harangue their landlords to install chargers for cars they don’t own yet. 99% of people are simply going to buy a car that works for their situation.

It’s Tesla’s fundamental responsibility to make sure their product fits their target demographic’s situation.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

This is sure-to-fail nonsense. Tenants are not going to harangue their landlords to install chargers for cars they don’t own yet. 99% of people are simply going to buy a car that works for their situation.

It’s Tesla’s fundamental responsibility to make sure their product fits their target demographic’s situation.

It seems like it’s actually the utility companies that are making the most progress on this so far. Lots of lobbying against that by oil companies, but that’s not doing much so far

 

[abasile]

Not entirely sure how true that is. Maybe not the same elsewhere, but I know ‘round these parts, only the rich can live close to their work. The poor generally have to commute hours from places like Hollister to get to jobs in the Bay Area.

That is a problem in US regions with very expensive real estate, but I still think it is the well-to-do who are responsible for the largest carbon emissions. One California family of four flying roundtrip to Europe just once (at least 10,000 miles) at 70+ mpg per passenger is very roughly equivalent to burning 550 gallons of gasoline, equivalent to close to a year's worth of driving (14k miles) in a 25 mpg vehicle. However, affluent families tend to do much more flying than just a single trip to Europe in a year. Their flying alone is likely to overshadow the long commutes done by poorer people. I do believe it's best to avoid flying when possible, and when we do fly, to really make it count. Switching from an ICE to an EV can't compensate for tens of thousands of miles of flying, but it will contribute to necessary structural changes. Of course, affluent people first need to be educated that an EV is a viable option!

There are very nice people that don’t live on the internet and know nothing about Tesla... so they go ahead and buy what they already know. Believe me, not everyone uses Twitter and knows what an Elon Musk is. How are they part of the problem? They will buy an EV when their neighbors buy one though

Yes, it's true that many, many nice people don't acknowledge that there is a problem or know what they can do to help. Many people are victims of disinformation campaigns designed to preserve the status quo, lazy journalism, etc. Hence the importance of being that neighbor driving an EV! And what better EV than a Tesla?

 

[Prunesquallor]

It seems like it’s actually the utility companies that are making the most progress on this so far. Lots of lobbying against that by oil companies, but that’s not doing much so far

This is new business for utilities. I would think that power companies would be big boosters of BEVs. As I understand it, energy consumption in the US has been flat. DC Fast Charging and home charging should represent new revenue.

 

[deffu]

Agree. Rich ppl/nations are doing more damage to environment than the poor. as for the air travel, I wonder if switching to high speed train will reduce emission. ppl fly or drive between SF/LA currently, if the bullet trains are up running, would it save us a lot of carbon emissions?

That is a problem in US regions with very expensive real estate, but I still think it is the well-to-do who are responsible for the largest carbon emissions. One California family of four flying roundtrip to Europe just once (at least 10,000 miles) at 70+ mpg per passenger is very roughly equivalent to burning 550 gallons of gasoline, equivalent to close to a year's worth of driving (14k miles) in a 25 mpg vehicle. However, affluent families tend to do much more flying than just a single trip to Europe in a year. Their flying alone is likely to overshadow the long commutes done by poorer people. I do believe it's best to avoid flying when possible, and when we do fly, to really make it count. Switching from an ICE to an EV can't compensate for tens of thousands of miles of flying, but it will contribute to necessary structural changes. Of course, affluent people first need to be educated that an EV is a viable option!


Yes, it's true that many, many nice people don't acknowledge that there is a problem or know what they can do to help. Many people are victims of disinformation campaigns designed to preserve the status quo, lazy journalism, etc. Hence the importance of being that neighbor driving an EV! And what better EV than a Tesla?

 

[kengchang]

Agree. Rich ppl/nations are doing more damage to environment than the poor. as for the air travel, I wonder if switching to high speed train will reduce emission. ppl fly or drive between SF/LA currently, if the bullet trains are up running, would it save us a lot of carbon emissions?

High Speed Rail is pretty much dead in California, very sad

 

[sparcs]

This is sure-to-fail nonsense. Tenants are not going to harangue their landlords to install chargers for cars they don’t own yet. 99% of people are simply going to buy a car that works for their situation.

It’s Tesla’s fundamental responsibility to make sure their product fits their target demographic’s situation.

What's the incentive for any apartment complex to offer any amenities at all? Why have a pool or a fitness center or the million other amenities that aren't absolutely necessary?

If a landlord wants good tenants, they should install amenities that target their demographic's situation.

Maybe states should just enact legislation requiring it for new apartment complex construction.

 

[dgodfrey]

The investment there is all on the landlord to retain tenants. Not on Tesla. Tesla isn't going to install 240v chargers for one or two customers on private property that isn't available to the public.

Those tenants should be in contact with the landlords and ask them to install chargers or they will move. People who can afford $40k+ EVs are desirable tenants. You should tell every one of those people riding in your car that they should contact their landlord. I have seen plenty of people who rent homes that are willing to install chargers for all those reasons. Don't see why it would be any different for apartments.

And/or, workplace charging, which has the added benefit of aligning charging with the daily solar peak.

This is new business for utilities. I would think that power companies would be big boosters of BEVs. As I understand it, energy consumption in the US has been flat. DC Fast Charging and home charging should represent new revenue.

Here in New York, we have a number of programs that facilitate all of the above. NYSERDA is promoting the Charge Ready NY rebate for charging stations that focus on 3 scenarios:

1. Workplace
2. Multi-unit dwelling
3. Public

Charge Ready NY - NYSERDA
This particular rebate will cover up to $4,000 per portal with a minimum of 2 portals.

In addition, if you're electrical service is provided by National Grid, they are winding down a program that will cover 100% of the costs of approved projects. I think that one though expires by the end of the month.

Electric Vehicle Charging Station Program | National Grid
(this is the Massachusetts link but NY was similar)

The funding is finite so first come first serve but I've recently applied to add 6 more portals at my office which will effectively be free. That is even including the 4 years of networked connectivity that is required for a workplace install. The multi-unit dwelling category does not require that which saves about $1,000 per portal for the 4 years required otherwise.

Why every apartment manager doesn't take advantage of this is unfortunate. If I was a tenant, I would do all the legwork and present the paperwork where all they need to do is sign the forms and earmark the funds. You have 180 days to complete the install to release the rebate.
If anybody on this forum that lives in NY and needs assistance if filling out the paperwork, drop me a PM and I will help however I can.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Agree. Rich ppl/nations are doing more damage to environment than the poor. as for the air travel, I wonder if switching to high speed train will reduce emission. ppl fly or drive between SF/LA currently, if the bullet trains are up running, would it save us a lot of carbon emissions?

Probably, if you can actually get it built. In CA, the “high speed rail” is now going to be just between Bakersfield and Fresno(a short stretch out in farm country in the Central Valley), so practically worthless, and for an order of magnitude more money than was promised for LA->SF.

 

[mrmage]

Agree. Rich ppl/nations are doing more damage to environment than the poor. as for the air travel, I wonder if switching to high speed train will reduce emission. ppl fly or drive between SF/LA currently, if the bullet trains are up running, would it save us a lot of carbon emissions?

Rich countries no longer do the most damage on an absolute basis. China generates the most CO2 annually, followed by the USA which emits less than half, then India which emits half of that. Per capita, the top offenders are Middle East and island nations.

This does not excuse the USA, which is a laggard among developed nations. Reducing climate change requires contributions from everyone, not just one demographic. Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet.

 

[MC3OZ]

This is sure-to-fail nonsense. Tenants are not going to harangue their landlords to install chargers for cars they don’t own yet. 99% of people are simply going to buy a car that works for their situation.

It’s Tesla’s fundamental responsibility to make sure their product fits their target demographic’s situation.

Urban Superchargers are the intended solution, the best solution is for Tesla to install more Urban Superchargers...

A single Urban Supercharger site with say 15-20 stalls, may be able to service 50-200 Tesla owners in say 5-20 apartment blocks nearby.
With this kind of scale there is efficiency, especially in terms of project management...
Customers should be paying for Urban Supercharging and Tesla should be paying the site for the electrcity used.. this is cheaper than gas so everyone wins in the end.

What customers need is 1-2 30 minute blocks per week when they can leave their car charging at a convenient location.

The "ultimate solution" for Supercharging is, that Supercharging pays for the expansion of Supercharging,.

In terms of individual apartment block, that is an issue for the apartment owners when > 50% of tenants are driving EVs it will happen naturally.

A tenant who drives an EV will be attracted to an apartment block with a charging option and perhaps be prepared to pay extra rent for the convenience. All the tenant needs to do is shop around, and perhaps tell the old landlord why they decided to rent elsewhere.

 

[dano-oly]

Unfortunately, there is no silver bullet.

Even farther OT, this reminds me that I haven't heard anything about the hyperloop lately....

 

[keydiver]

I drive I-80 pretty regularly in the Nebraska / Iowa region and on a typical 100 mile stretch traveling West I will see 1, maybe 2 trucks fully loaded with new Teslas heading east, but yesterday I noticed 5 trucks packed with (mostly white) Teslas heading east. I know it is only anecdotal, but it looks to me like the wave is still in full effect here in North America and if I am seeing that many cars in the middle of the country I would think EOQ deliveries are stacking up to look pretty good.

My personal experience: I ordered a Long Range AWD Model 3 last night, got a call this afternoon, and take delivery at 1 PM tomorrow.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'm getting nervous about delivery numbers this quarter as Tesla is now giving a free option as well as 2 years free supercharging to sell Model 3s.

I keep hearing how Tesla sells all they can build - but they have to discount them heavily to sell them it seems. I've never seen a company discount a product they had people in line waiting to buy.

But then I read about people who ordered months ago and still haven't gotten their car. What gives?

 

[Todd Burch]

I'm getting nervous about delivery numbers this quarter as Tesla is now giving a free option as well as 2 years free supercharging to sell Model 3s.

I keep hearing how Tesla sells all they can build - but they have to discount them heavily to sell them it seems. I've never seen a company discount a product they had people in line waiting to buy.

But then I read about people who ordered months ago and still haven't gotten their car. What gives?

Elon addressed this in a Tweet a few days ago.

Elon Musk on Twitter