Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

You wouldn't know it from the headline:
"After $5 Billion in Losses, China’s Tesla Fights to Survive"

Congratulations everyone. Tesla is the Kleenex of the EV world.

Spoiler: Elaboration

If you don't get the reference, Kleenex is a brand name for tissues that is so prolific that it is often used as a generic term for the type of product.
If you need this connection spelled out further, notice that the headline refers to "China's Tesla". Much like China's Kleenex. Tissues = EVs.
If you're still reading this and you still don't get it, go take a walk and come back when refreshed.

 

[elasalle]

GE’s Largest Battery Deal Yet Will Support a 200MW Australian Solar Plant

 

[JusRelax]

Congratulations everyone. Tesla is the Kleenex of the EV world.

Tesla is also the Kleenex of the ICE world.

 

[Runarbt]

Finally, last week of September, Norway sales are rocketing. 165 as of now, we'll probably close >200 today.
If rate continues for the week (and it should) we'll have a much better September than 2018, but QoQ will be disappointing.
Silver lining is that we still haven't seen a lot of SR+ in Norway, so ASP will be higher than expected.

I have a LR scheduled for home delivery (!?) on friday 11:30 am. Drammen, Norway.

Delivery was delayed a week, but now its soo here. still 4 days away.. So assume they will deliver 200+/day all week.

Only problem, I am supposed to be at work..Will have to call and ask if I can pick up the car instead.

 

[mongo]

I have a LR scheduled for home delivery (!?) on friday 11:30 am. Drammen, Norway.

Delivery was delayed a week, but now its soo here. still 4 days away.. So assume they will deliver 200+/day all week.

Only problem, I am supposed to be at work..Will have to call and ask if I can pick up the car instead.

Or have it delivered to work?

 

[M3Rider]

For global demand? This is just silly.

Steady state demand will eventually be at least 800k Model 3s per year plus 1.5m Model Y per year.

Model S and Model X eventual steady state demand is at least 100k combined per year. They just need product differentiation. Comparable interiors and cabin noise to vehicles in class. Significantly longer real world ranges,faster charging, and/or superior tech to Gen III(3 & Y). Gen II has been stuck on 100 kWh for quite a while now.

I do not think that range is an appropriate parameter for S/X and 3/Y differentiation. Range is a necessity, not a luxury. Gas cars don't differentiate on it. Add your falcon wings, dynamic suspension, bioweapon defense air filters, noise isolation, fancy handles etc.
Hopefully, batteries will become cheaper and this type of differentiation will become unnecessary some time.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tesla is also the Kleenex of the ICE world.

Because we're wiping away their boogers?

 

[Diederik]

Finally, last week of September, Norway sales are rocketing. 165 as of now, we'll probably close >200 today.
If rate continues for the week (and it should) we'll have a much better September than 2018, but QoQ will be disappointing.
Silver lining is that we still haven't seen a lot of SR+ in Norway, so ASP will be higher than expected.

I think you should focus less on Norway specifically and look at the Europe-wide statistics. QoQ is above the trend for NO+NL+SP, even without considering the additional UK demand in Q3. EV tax incentives will further phase out in the Netherlands at the end of 2019 while demand is currently through the roof. Meanwhile, tax incentives in Norway will not change until the end of 2020. Looking at the numbers, it would not surprise me if Tesla is sending the majority of their Model 3 production to the Netherlands for now.

 

[Runarbt]

Or have it delivered to work?

I commute to Oslo, so might not be feasible for them.. 1+hour round trip.

 

[dc_h]

Fully agreed; I wasn't meaning to imply a sudden jump to 3k. But even with a couple hundred per week, you'll be seeing delivery trucks at some of the docks at any given point in time in the drone and satellite footage. You'll also see them before you actually see cars start appearing outside. Delivery trucks at the loading docks should be the first visible clue that they're doing more than just trial stamping / fitting / painting.

Early completed cars are likely to go out in covered containers. They could hit the street driven by Tesla staff without any differentiation from California cars. Hopefully they feel like they can burn a couple hundred test vehicles.
Based on power constraint, they can probably only run part of the factory at any time. Test the press, test BIW, test paint, ... Sort of what you'd want to do to start anyhow. Hopefully the first round of tuning is complete when the substation is turned up.
October 1st was cited as a day Tesla would want to hit as important in China.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I don't understand this green opening, CNBC told me that Tesla was deeply in the red pre-market due to looming legal troubles. How is this possible!?@!?

 

[Todd Burch]

This recent pattern of an inverted MMD has me puzzled...it's a Mandatory Morning Spike. MMS. A text message, so to speak.

 

[JusRelax]

Tesla is also the Kleenex of the ICE world.

Because we're wiping away their boogers?

Yes, exactly - Tesla is wiping away the mess that ICE vehicles have made.

 

[Bobfitz1]

There will be some cannibalisation from y on 3 I agree. However too early to tell how much considering market for EVs is constantly growing, and the model 3 will still remain significantly cheaper than the Y for quite some time. Also it’s possible the $35k SR is profitable enough at that point to roll out internationally which will significantly boost demand for 3 (not to mention lack of tariffs on China produced cars, and eventually EU produced vehicles.)

IMO we have reached the point where cannibalization is just the wrong word to use when discussing what introduction of MY will mean for M3 sales. Customer preferences will determine the split of Gen III production between the two. In the U.S. it's a given that a greater percentage of customers will prefer EV CUVs over sedans. The greater that split % favors MY the better for Tesla since cost to build Y will be less, it will be the latest offering (until pickup) and people are fine with paying a few thousand more for a CUV than an the equivalent sedan. That greater margin will mean more profit from the combined Gen III revenue. Cannibalization was of concern when the 'eaten' had much higher price and better margin than the cannibal. This is not the situation as MY nears production and why 'cannibalize' ought be retired from M3/MY discussions.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

You wouldn't know it from the headline:
"After $5 Billion in Losses, China’s Tesla Fights to Survive"

This is even worse.

"NIO Inc., the company known as China’s Tesla...."

Really? Said who? Bloomberg? I think Nio is known as Nio to anyone not trying to get a cheap click.

China's Tesla Battles for Survival

This headline literally makes it sound as if Tesla in China is about to collapse - as if they can't get the factory built or something.

I'm really getting sick of the entire news media. No one can report outside their agenda.

 

[pnungesser]

You know what else can be mistaken for a Model 3? Another Model 3.

I was helping out at our UU church yesterday evening, and when I was done I walked up to my blue TM3, spent a minute or two finishing a text by the driver’s door, went to reach for the handle, then spent another 10 seconds wondering what kind of person would peel the wrap off of a door handle (I have black chrome delete) in a church parking lot, before finally realizing my car was actually 2 cars over. There were only about 10 cars in the lot, so I’m liking that percentage.

And I hope they had Sentry Mode on!

Yeh, but that was at a UU church (IMAUU2). I'll be more excited when we see this at a primitive Baptist parking lot.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Wow, so YTD EV+PHEV combined sales were just 186 units in a country of 25 million?! And in a country that has the 10th highest GDP per capita in the world (per wikipedia). Super disappointing.

Now on the other hand, if Tesla delivers 2200 Model 3s in September... that will have a huge impact and trigger future growth.

It's even worse than that, we also have one of the best solar resources on the planet - a gigantic desert relatively close to the equator for all year energy.

Utter madness that there isn't more EV market share.

 

[Fred42]

IMO we have reached the point where cannibalization is just the wrong word to use when discussing what introduction of MY will mean for M3 sales. Customer preferences will determine the split of Gen III production between the two. In the U.S. it's a given that a greater percentage of customers will prefer EV CUVs over sedans. The greater that split % favors MY the better for Tesla since cost to build Y will be less, it will be the latest offering (until pickup) and people are fine with paying a few thousand more for a CUV than an the equivalent sedan. That greater margin will mean more profit from the combined Gen III revenue. Cannibalization was of concern when the 'eaten' had much higher price and better margin than the cannibal. This is not the situation as MY nears production and why 'cannibalize' ought be retired from M3/MY discussions.

The purchase price of the 3 is much higher than most similar sized gas cars. Buyers are willing to pay the extra amount to get a Tesla. After the initial purchase wave, time will tell whether will buyers of the Y will be willing to also pay the traditional CUV/car differential in addition to the today's price of the 3.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeh, but that was at a UU church (IMAUU2). I'll be more excited when we see this at a primitive Baptist parking lot.

Q: How many Unitarians does it take to change a light bulb?
A: We choose not to make a statement either in favour of or against the need for a light bulb. However, if in your own journey, you have found that light bulbs work for you, that is wonderful. You are invited to write a poem or compose a modern dance about your personal relationship with your light bulb. Present it next month at our annual Light Bulb Sunday Service, in which we will explore a number of light bulb traditions, including incandescent, fluorescent, LED, HPS, and HID, all of which are equally valid paths to luminescence...

 

[Tslynk67]

Looks like Norway got a batch of LRs. 165 registered today so far. It is good to see some uptick there but also the high number of LRs.

Has been 90%+ LR's all September