Tslynk67
Well-Known Member
Basically -
- Current run rate is 300k/yr
- After Y, 3 rate will be 200k/yr and Y will be 300k/yr = 500k/yr
I'd say this is 2021. No idea what the real "long term" rate is.
You forgot to factor in 150k from GF3
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Basically -
- Current run rate is 300k/yr
- After Y, 3 rate will be 200k/yr and Y will be 300k/yr = 500k/yr
I'd say this is 2021. No idea what the real "long term" rate is.
Or launch a satellite network to facilitate wireless energy transfer from the the sun side of earth or directly from the sun to the dark side, and send wireless energy to mars transport ships and/or to mars base station.
You forgot to factor in 150k from GF3
NL+NO+ES Model 3 deliveries in the past few days have been unusually low, even by the standards of a new quarter. 34 total, despite it being on weekdays. Q3 was 74, and Q2 was 234. Their European delivery network seems to be maturing, to have so little inventory left. But it's also a sign that they didn't send enough to Europe.
UK reportedly had too few vehicles, so I doubt the remaining inventory is there. Seems like most of it was US, mainly east coast. Sounds like Australia also had some delivery issues. I don't know about New Zealand, Taiwan, or Japan. And of course, whoever knows about China?
Overall, though, maintaining a roughly even match between Model 3s produced and delivered, despite expanding to several new markets, is a job pretty well done.
about this, @KarenRei ... what are your opinions regarding GF3, and the whole new "space" it will provide for Tesla international logistics?
I mean, with GF3 operating, there will be several free ROROs annually that could go elsewhere: Europe, for example.
Tesla could even try to stop sending any ship in Asia from the start, and just use GF3 cars. (not sure if the Chinese would allow that though).
Do you think there will be significant savings/upsides there?
I just know it's a good thing, can't really put it in numbers.
When has Elon mocked socio-political issues?
He is a strong supporter of UBI
All of his companies are working directly on solutions which will reduce poverty and increase equality of opportunity.
Tesla
OpenAI
SpaceX
Starlink
The Boring Company
Neuralink
I think your ~500k prediction for long term combined 3 & Y demand is way way too low. 3 is already above 300k as EVs are still a minuscule percentage of new car sales. Also ignores the steady decrease in entry level pricing combined with better featured cars that Tesla has been producing.
Primarily the only direct effect a profit is going to have, is that the markets will lose one of their big sticks to beat them with, and the increased financial stability would lead to an stock price bump. Why should any super-bull or long term investors care about the short-term SP?
A profit is nice, however I think it is easy to underestimate just how much of a slowdown in growth may be required to reach consistent profitability.I disagree with the sentiment that tesla should not be aiming for consecutive profitable quarters and instead be continuing to plough all money back into R&D and expansion. Although I fully understand the philosophy of 'get big fast', I would argue that the company should concentrate a bit harder on showing some profit from here on (not a huge profit...but just not a loss).
Primarily the only direct effect a profit is going to have, is that the markets will lose one of their big sticks to beat them with, and the increased financial stability would lead to an stock price bump. Why should any super-bull or long term investors care about the short-term SP?
1) Many top-level and highly skilled employees will have remuneration tied to the SP. I'd guess a lot of them are motivated by the eventual value of stock & stock options. The longer they work with a flat SP, the less likely they are to stay / more tempted they can be by rivals, or the more expensive their compensating salary will have to be
2) There is a non-zero percentage of the population who believe tesla is always in financial trouble. cars are a big long-term expense and people do not want to be stuck with a car that's not supported ESPECIALLY a cutting-edge tech one which no other company knows how to service or support. This is a very real concern.
If I ran Tesla, I'd always be aiming to be profitable every quarter from here on, even if only trivially, and even if that slightly slowed expansion.
Tesla Model S hailed as the new 'Dream Car' of America
Tesla getting traction in some of the midwestern states. When will Michigan succumb?
"Tesla Silo Foundation". "Core, Shell and MEP". "Solar Roof Test Structure".... Why have I got building up a base on Command & Conquer in my head? Also, "Underground Fire Supply" sounds dangerous.
Sure it's not an audio upgrade you're after??
All Musk's initiatives that you mentionned do not address socio-political issues (although they offer side benefits). They were not meant to help the lower class specifically. Make no mistake: the guy is a great engineer and industrialists but he just doesn't care (or have enough time to) about the widenning inequeality gap.
He's right to want to save the climate and make mankind a multiplanetary species but if society is being increasingly torned apart (big money in politics, wealth inequality, oligopoly, etc) then I bet the nice things he wants will be disrupted by more immediate concerns (like being opposed by all those who thinks Musk is like any billionaire - trying to make money and increase his power).
This thread, for a start. Elon Musk on Twitter
Milton Friedman, in the form of a negative income tax. UBI will not reduce inequality significantly, that's not what it's for.
Equality of opportunity you say? I'd love to read a description of a typical TSLA holder. For some reasons, most of the ones I know were quite affluent _before_ going long (I can vouch for myself). If the shareholders who'll get richer were already rich enough, then il n’y a rien de nouveau sous le soleil.
This thread, for a start. Elon Musk on Twitter
All Musk's initiatives that you mentionned do not address socio-political issues (although they offer side benefits). They were not meant to help the lower class specifically. Make no mistake: the guy is a great engineer and industrialists but he just doesn't care (or have enough time to) about the widenning inequeality gap.
He's right to want to save the climate and make mankind a multiplanetary species but if society is being increasingly torned apart (big money in politics, wealth inequality, oligopoly, etc) then I bet the nice things he wants will be disrupted by more immediate concerns (like being opposed by all those who thinks Musk is like any billionaire - trying to make money and increase his power).
This thread, for a start. Elon Musk on Twitter