Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Some other crazy predictions for the Pickup Truck reveal:

• The CyberTruck will pull a Falcon 9 first stage.

Falcon9's empty weight (without propellant) is 22,200 kg (48,900 lb). Model X has already demonstrated pulling a Semi truck (~80K lbs), so why bother? And there's no chance they could do that safely while Falcon9 is loaded with propellant.

I guess it comes down to if Elon thinks he needs Cybertruck to move Starship around on the surface of Mars? So maybe a Boring TBM instead?

• The CyberTruck will debut the SpaceX Option Package and will enter (or exit) flying - or might demo hovering.

Hoho, do you realize how dangerously LOUD that would be? Not to mention flying debris kicked up at rocket nozzle speeds? It'd be unsafe and illegal. FAA fighting with NHTSA over who gets to be lead investigative agency for the 'incident'.

• Theres still a chance for an amphibious version, like good APCs.

That'd be cool! Again, if there's water on Mars, I'd say for sure.

Thanks for the ideas!

Cheers!

 

[dc_h]

Can you elaborate on what this is? Is this some sort of announcement from Tesla China ?

Shanghai is supposed to go live on November 11 - which is related to CATL battery agreement announced today as well.

also noteworthy: Cybertruck reveal is November 21.

 

[hobbes]

No car length limit additions to exclude Tesla were announced.

Must have missed something here - was there a discussion about length limit? Never heard of that...

Other than that all of these changes are positives, in particular the new €65,000 upper limit should now include a fully maxed out Model 3 Performance as well, which costs €64,720 currently. Most Model Y trims should be covered as well.

The limits up to now were for the base model of a car. You still get it if you buy a more expensive trim. I have not heard anything to suggest that will change. When the 60,000 EUR limit was introduced, Tesla quickly made up a Model S without anything (no navigation system for example) to get the base price below the limit).

 

[woodisgood]

My point of view:
1. I'm an Apple fanboy
2. I used to hold $AAPL (until I sold it to feed my $TSLA addiction)
3. I've switched most of my household from linux-based products to Apple products
4. I see plenty of parallels between Apple and Tesla

I don't see how there is any mutually beneficial arrangement. While it is conceivable to me that Apple could benefit (primarily through app sales, apple music licensing) it is less clear how Tesla could.

What could Apple bring to the table? They have iOS and the user facing code could be ported to it. This would bring a better music experience, but Tesla's UI is a whole is fine. The porting cost would be greater than fixing the issues with music playback and interface.

And that would yield any appstore commerce to Apple. It would kill off the current gaming efforts.

What else could Apple bring? I got nothing.

Um... unlike the rest of silicon valley, Apple takes security seriously*. But Tesla isn't too bad in this regard. While they may not take it seriously they consider it to be important and they act on it. IMO the original remote unlock ability was an embarrassment and betrayed the "move fast/break things/make it ship" mentality that is so prevalent in tech. But they fixed it and have since not had any other embarrassments. In other words, to date Tesla has shown adequate security.

* to fully explain this would take some verbosity that is really off topic. If you don't agree, then security isn't something Apple could bring and leave it at that. I don't think they have anything meaningful to offer there so the positions don't differ materially. If you disagree that Apple could bring better security posture to Tesla then it is, at best, an incremental improvement as Tesla is already better than most tech companies.

edited to add: okay, @jerry33 is right, that would be a mutual benefit (unless Apple distracted too much from Tesla). There you have it, that's it

I grew up an Apple fanboy as well.

In terms of the benefits Apple could provide, my perspective is they are good at literally everything Tesla struggles with. Apple could probably fix Tesla's logistics and customer service issues quite promptly. Apple could probably put together a seamless robotaxi app and experience much more easily than Tesla will. Apple already has a very successful App Store, and it remains to be seen if/when Tesla gets into that and how well they can execute it. Apple is quite good at providing subscription services and Tesla doesn't have the time to even put those together (see: premium connectivity).

I think we all see HUGE software opportunities for Tesla down the road, but at what point will they have the resources to focus on them?

 

[EVNow]

The changes to the German EV incentives program were announced after a 4 hour meeting between Merkel and the VDA (German car industry organization) this Monday.

Press release was distributed via the DPA news agency, which isn't public AFAICS, here's a few secondary sources:

• "Autogipfel: Kaufprämie für Elektroautos steigt" (Handelsblatt)
  
• "Höhere Kaufprämie für E-Autos kommt" (Tagesschau)
  
• "Autogipfel im Kanzleramt: Wohl höhere Kaufprämie für E-Autos" (ZDF)
• "Autogipfel": Länger und mehr Fördergeld für Elektroautos | DW | 05.11.2019

The changes that were reported:

• Incentives extended from "end of 2020" to "end of 2025"
• Incentives up to €40,000 get raised from €4,000 to €6,000.
• The former incentives limit of €60,000 gets raised to €65,000.
• Incentives between €40,000 and €65,000 get raised from €4,000 to €5,000.

No car length limit additions to exclude Tesla were announced. Note that since this is an extension of the existing incentives program, I believe any new substantial restrictions would have been announced. (But this is not 100% certain.)

So in principle it's possible that they have agreed on other changes as well, I believe it's very probable that they'd have announced any such changes.

The main anti Tesla move here is the €40,000 limit of the €6,000 incentives: just below the €44,000 of the base SR+.

Other than that all of these changes are positives, in particular the new €65,000 upper limit should now include a fully maxed out Model 3 Performance as well, which costs €64,720 currently. Most Model Y trims should be covered as well.

According to press reports the new incentives package will be finalized and announced in November, I.e. within the next few weeks.

At this point I don't mind their protectionism. As a Tesla investor it is annoying, but if it helps the legacy makers produce and sell more EVs I'm okay with that.

I think the main problem with all these incentives etc is that all these don't amount to a credible plan to tackle Climate Change.

What we really need is a work-back plan. Lets say the goal in by 2030 CO2 emissions should be reduced by X % so that we can keep below Y deg centigrade. Given this goal, each country needs to come up with the basket of policies to achieve those emission reductions. If that means 80% EVs by 2030 - then they need to structure the regulation/incentives to achieve that market share for EVs.

AFAIK, none of the countries are doing this rigorously, use models that tell them what regulation/incentives are needed instead of deciding on regulations/incentives based on lobbying.

 

[hobbes]

Falcon9's empty weight (without propellant) is 22,200 kg (48,900 lb). Model X has already demonstrated pulling a Semi truck (~80K lbs), so why bother? And there's no chance they could do that safely while Falcon9 is loaded with propellant.

And also remember this

Dreamliner empty weight is 264,500 lb / 119,950 kg according to Boeing 787 Dreamliner - Wikipedia

 

[Electrifying]

I grew up an Apple fanboy as well.

In terms of the benefits Apple could provide, my perspective is they are good at literally everything Tesla struggles with. Apple could probably fix Tesla's logistics and customer service issues quite promptly. Apple could probably put together a seamless robotaxi app and experience much more easily than Tesla will. Apple already has a very successful App Store, and it remains to be seen if/when Tesla gets into that and how well they can execute it. Apple is quite good at providing subscription services and Tesla doesn't have the time to even put those together (see: premium connectivity).

I think we all see HUGE software opportunities for Tesla down the road, but at what point will they have the resources to focus on them?

Apple will equip Model 3 with hexagonal wheels and charge $1000 for charging cable. and bundle in the idiotic Siri. It's much cheaper to hire away Apple top talents

 

[aubreymcfato]

Lombardia is in Green Bay, Wisconsin

Lombardia is in Italy ;-P

You just call it Lombardy:
Lombardy - Wikipedia

 

[woodisgood]

Apple will equip Model 3 with hexagonal wheels and charge $1000 fir a charging cable.

Right, only one of the myriad of reasons why an actual buyout would be terrible.

I'm wondering more specifically about a partnership, and what it could entail without adversely affecting what is great about Tesla. I think Tesla would have a lot of leverage in any negotiations to structure agreements in a beneficial way - what could that ideally look like?

 

[Fact Checking]

In terms of the benefits Apple could provide, my perspective is they are good at literally everything Tesla struggles with. Apple could probably fix Tesla's logistics and customer service issues quite promptly.

I'm not so sure: Apple now has a decade long institutional memory of obscene profit margins on their core products. They can fix service and other halo characteristics of their products by simply spending more. I believe Apple has become somewhat lazy in terms of capex and opex efficiency - because most of their products leverage up in volume so incredibly.

Tesla is in the cut-throat, high-capital-cost, low-margin, zero-sum game auto business, where 90% of the neutral observers are amazed that after 10 years Tesla is still kicking and alive. Post-2016 Tesla is solving most of their problems by spending and doing differently.

An Apple-Tesla combo would probably result in the worst of both worlds - with the notable exception if Elon becomes the CEO of Apple - which takeover plan I don't see Tim Cook and the Apple board subscribing to anytime soon.

 

[JustMe]

NL sales only started taking off on 1 November. We are the first in line when a shipment arrives in Zeebrugge (which is geographically close). And now we even have ships going directly to Amsterdam. NO simply didn’t get any cars yet because they are at the end of the line, about a week later. That is, if there are any crumbs left after NL and UK finished eating. .

I have just learned today that the ship trackers are also following smaller ships within Europe. It looks like there will soon be a shipment from Zee to NO.
Morten Grove on Twitter

This obsessive stalking of Tesla shipments is in itself fascinating and almost unsettling. Yesterday I posted something about one of these ships on the TMC forum and my post was tweeted by a Tesla Q follower to the world within just a few minutes.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Pretty much the only collaboration I see between Apple and Tesla nowadays is Apple getting to build and maintain the multimedia functions and the app store since that will become more important over time with FSD...…..in exchange for a handsome payment or on-going payments to Tesla of course

Not saying I actually think it's going to happen or that Tesla needs it at this point. Just the only possible thing I could see happening.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I believe human species should continue to exist

How many have you met?

 

[woodisgood]

I'm not so sure: Apple now has a decade long institutional memory of obscene profit margins on their core products. They can fix service and other halo characteristics of their products by simply spending more. I believe Apple has become somewhat lazy in terms of capex and opex efficiency - because most of their products leverage up in volume so incredibly.

Tesla is in the cut-throat, high-capital-cost, low-margin, zero-sum game auto business, where 90% of the neutral observers are amazed that after 10 years Tesla is still kicking and alive. Tesla is solving most of their problems by spending and doing differently.

An Apple-Tesla combo would probably result in the worst of both worlds - with the notable exception if Elon becomes the CEO of Apple - which takeover plan I don't see Tim Cook and the Apple board subscribing to anytime soon.

I think what you are saying is true, but Apple always had a relentless focus on customer "experience" even before they had the obscene profit margins. It was a cultural driver for them.

I think it's easy to focus on Tim and Elon - truth is, they have a lot to offer each other, and neither has to take over the other's operation. Apple's play is to compete with Google, and Tesla offers them a way to continue to do that. Meanwhile Apple's involvement would probably increase demand for Tesla vehicles in a manner Tesla isn't ready to handle [yet].

 

[JusRelax]

I believe human species should continue to exist.

"I believe you're biased, filthy human." - KarenRei AKA KukaBot

 

[Cherry Wine]

My point of view:
1. I'm an Apple fanboy
2. I used to hold $AAPL (until I sold it to feed my $TSLA addiction)
3. I've switched most of my household from linux-based products to Apple products
4. I see plenty of parallels between Apple and Tesla

I don't see how there is any mutually beneficial arrangement. While it is conceivable to me that Apple could benefit (primarily through app sales, apple music licensing) it is less clear how Tesla could.

What could Apple bring to the table? They have iOS and the user facing code could be ported to it. This would bring a better music experience, but Tesla's UI is a whole is fine. The porting cost would be greater than fixing the issues with music playback and interface.

And that would yield any appstore commerce to Apple. It would kill off the current gaming efforts.

What else could Apple bring? I got nothing.

Um... unlike the rest of silicon valley, Apple takes security seriously*. But Tesla isn't too bad in this regard. While they may not take it seriously they consider it to be important and they act on it. IMO the original remote unlock ability was an embarrassment and betrayed the "move fast/break things/make it ship" mentality that is so prevalent in tech. But they fixed it and have since not had any other embarrassments. In other words, to date Tesla has shown adequate security.

* to fully explain this would take some verbosity that is really off topic. If you don't agree, then security isn't something Apple could bring and leave it at that. I don't think they have anything meaningful to offer there so the positions don't differ materially. If you disagree that Apple could bring better security posture to Tesla then it is, at best, an incremental improvement as Tesla is already better than most tech companies.

edited to add: okay, @jerry33 is right, that would be a mutual benefit (unless Apple distracted too much from Tesla). There you have it, that's it

The only thing that comes to mind for me as a potential partnership benefit is Apple's experience in dealing with high volumes of customer interactions -- repairs, etc. I agree that Apple has extensive knowledge in supply chain logistics, etc., but it's unclear to me whether those would sufficiently translate from the consumer electronics space to automobiles, energy products, etc.

 

[mrdoubleb]

Must have missed something here - was there a discussion about length limit? Never heard of that...



The limits up to now were for the base model of a car. You still get it if you buy a more expensive trim. I have not heard anything to suggest that will change. When the 60,000 EUR limit was introduced, Tesla quickly made up a Model S without anything (no navigation system for example) to get the base price below the limit).

Must have missed something here - was there a discussion about length limit? Never heard of that...



The limits up to now were for the base model of a car. You still get it if you buy a more expensive trim. I have not heard anything to suggest that will change. When the 60,000 EUR limit was introduced, Tesla quickly made up a Model S without anything (no navigation system for example) to get the base price below the limit).

VW wanted to push through an amendment that would have limited the incentive to €2k above 4.65m I think. Can't recall the exact number but was like 4cm above the ID3 length and a few below Model 3. "Nice try".

Update: yeah it was 4.65 meters which is 4 cm below the Model 3's length.

VW drängt auf Änderungen bei der E-Auto-Förderung

 

[Artful Dodger]

It was very hard to see also. Terrible lighting.

Given that US production for Model 3 seems to be sold out through Q1 (backlog in order book), perhaps we'll see more of the Model Y on display in proper lighting (not blue light).

Also remember that Tesla changed their Reservations/Orders policy last month. So now its a $100 non-refundable deposit to place an order or to get on the waiting list.

Both Cybertruck and Model Y could pile up some big $$ for Tesla's Q4 financials, and those'd be unrestricted funds, which Tesla can declare as revenue. $25-50M seems about right.

 

[M3Rider]

Colorado "Freedom to Drive Coalition" challenges ZEV regulations adoption by CO, because gas car prices will go up by $2.5k
Chase Woodruff on Twitter

"Freedom to pollute for free" coalition.
Haven't seen this number before, but it's nice to know. Helps narrowing the price gap between gas cars and EVs.

 

[printf42]

What else could Apple bring? I got nothing.

How about using some of those 200B cash to build GFs around the world 10x faster than Tesla planed?

My take is Apple could work with Tesla same way as how they work with their other suppliers, they pay for and own the factories, use supplier IP with their own design, then brand the product. This actually doesn’t conflict with Tesla’s mission.