Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZsoZso]

Btw Lexus and others can be defeated the same way so be sure to remind him they should at least be consistent and call out all other automakers with similar systems.

Edit: It seems he likes YouTube videos so send him links like this for the same trick from other manufacturers.

How about all the other cars that don't even have driver assist features and people fall asleep while driving causing accidents frequently. Note: the Tesla in his example was driving for 14miles without incident. When drivers fall asleep in other cars an accident happens right away. So all cars without self driving features should be immediately disabled and banned from the roads.

 

[Earlian]

This day's price action looks like a copy of last Wednesday. And then we'll probably end up red somewhere around 349-351.

 

[KarenRei]

He reiterated those comments in July where he made clear statements about demand and yet still reiterated that Q1 would be weaker. Here's the post i made earlier:

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable

I would be skeptical to conclude that their Q1 2020 sentiment has changed much since the end of July.

I have trouble seeing how Q1 could be weak, given how much demand has been deferred in China (for GF3 - they can sell basically however many cars they can make there), in Europe (continent-wide backlogged demand is getting just plain ridiculous), the improved German credit (and enhanced attention thanks to the siting of GF4 - world's 5th largest automarket), new markets opening, unlikely that new markets this quarter (like South Korea) get their backlog fully filled, etc. Even accounting for the (small) reduction in the US credit and NL sales switching to being predominantly (significantly lower volume) non-corporate cars, I can't see how demand would be "weak". Start with Q3 numbers, subtract 80% of NL deliveries, maybe a small amount of US deliveries (only maybe - you add half a year's growth in overall EV demand between Q1 and Q3), and then add in "all of the positives on the list at the start of this paragraph".

And even if it were to be "weak"? Tesla could boost it just with some price cuts. Margins are certainly more than sufficient to support it, and COGS is only going to go down in the coming quarters.

 

[ggr]

I understand it's inconsiderate and OT to reply here so I apologize in advance, but to what guidelines are you referring? This thread is a stream of consciousness catch-all collection of every topic in the universe every day.

Children like structure and rules.

What you quoted was a guideline. The stuff moderators post in color are guidelines.

 

[Menifeer]

A bit OT, but interesting...

Today I bought Ford Jan 2022 $5 Call options for $3.75. At the time of the trade the shares bid/ask were $8.70/8.71. That's about 4 or 5 cents of time value over the next two years. Amazing.

 

[mongo]

I have trouble seeing how Q1 could be weak, given how much demand has been deferred in China (for GF3 - they can sell basically however many cars they can make there), in Europe (continent-wide backlogged demand is getting just plain ridiculous), the improved German credit (and enhanced attention thanks to the siting of GF4), new markets opening, etc. Even accounting for the (small) reduction in the US credit and NL sales switching to being predominantly (significantly lower volume) non-corporate cars, I can't see how demand would be "weak". Start with Q3 numbers, subtract 80% of NL deliveries, maybe a small amount of US deliveries (only maybe), and then add in "everything on the list above".

And even if it were to be "weak"? Tesla could boost it just with some price cuts. Margins are certainly more than sufficient to support it, and COGS is only going to go down in the coming quarters.

@sparcs
Looking at it from the Q2 call: if GF3 were delayed late into Q1 and Fremont were near the top of the production curve in Q4, it could be difficult for Q1 to exceed Q4 in deliveries.

Given GF3 is starting shortly, I agree that Q1 should be happy.

 

[KarenRei]

Idea: Do we have any DC Tesla owners here? Call Markey (617-565-8519) and extend an offer to let him experience Autopilot in person to learn more about it. While it's probably unlikely you'd get taken up on your offer, but it may encourage him to try it regardless.

 

[Mike Smith]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Ihor says 30.37M shares shorted. Now down $1.33B in 2019. I'm pretty sure over time Tesla shorts have lost more money than Tesla which is pretty incredible.

 

[sparcs]

I have trouble seeing how Q1 could be weak, given how much demand has been deferred in China (for GF3 - they can sell basically however many cars they can make there), in Europe (continent-wide backlogged demand is getting just plain ridiculous), the improved German credit (and enhanced attention thanks to the siting of GF4 - world's 5th largest automarket), new markets opening, unlikely that new markets this quarter (like South Korea) get their backlog fully filled, etc. Even accounting for the (small) reduction in the US credit and NL sales switching to being predominantly (significantly lower volume) non-corporate cars, I can't see how demand would be "weak". Start with Q3 numbers, subtract 80% of NL deliveries, maybe a small amount of US deliveries (only maybe - you add half a year's growth in overall EV demand between Q1 and Q3), and then add in "all of the positives on the list at the start of this paragraph".

And even if it were to be "weak"? Tesla could boost it just with some price cuts. Margins are certainly more than sufficient to support it, and COGS is only going to go down in the coming quarters.

Exactly, you state pretty well all these different factors that we will likely be discussing up until the Q4 conference call.

In my mind, this is the most important question in the Q4 call and we should probably try to get it on say.com.

Basically a question along the lines as to whether Elon's sentiment about Q1 being harder is still an accurate picture due to seasonality, some pull forward demand, etc.

 

[Nocturnal]

This day's price action looks like a copy of last Wednesday. And then we'll probably end up red somewhere around 349-351.

Considering the drops after previous product reveals I'm ok with it not running up beforehand.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Whoa.. these numbers are mind boggling. I see a free Berlin GF there and the investment timeline aligns really well with the bounty coming in.

Thanks for updating the model.

While I think the bounty may be higher than 50%, the outer years probably will see some decline as they will start pumping hybrids or start making more compliance cars based some a platform like MEB. VW is being smart here trying to sell a platform when all the automakers need one. That might be the android to Tesla's apple.

That said, your table stops at 240k, and I think Tesla can go past that in 2021, as Shanghai hits it's stride and Fremont continues to ramp with model Y alongside GF1. And may be a trickle from Berlin as well.

Can't wait for Q1 to see how much detail we'll start getting here. Also good news on the union approvals from the PSA side.

Yes, if PSA is added to the pool, and if FCA-PSA can’t produce a significant number of EVs on their own, then getting Berlin up and cranking out cars in 2021 looks like it could be very lucrative. Until then, Tesla should funnel all the export capability that WAS going to China to the EU if demand allows.

Please feel free to spot-check the calculations. I tried to be transparent about how I did them.

 

[elasalle]

Bought a small lotto play for Dec 1st week ...

 

[FreqFlyer]

Why Tesla investors are not scared of Ford's Mach E. Watch the video.

Consumers Will Continue to Buy Tesla Cars Because of the 'Brand'

 

[AlexS]

A bit OT, but interesting...

Today I bought Ford Jan 2022 $5 Call options for $3.75. At the time of the trade the shares bid/ask were $8.70/8.71. That's about 4 or 5 cents of time value over the next two years. Amazing.

You think Elon will be sleeping on Ford factory floor to make sure MachE mass production running smooth before Jan 2022?

 

[Chenkers]

I did a Fremont factory tour on Monday night. They have a large area hoarded off to the left of where the tour starts off, near the area that the model 3 comes off the production line. The guide pointed it out briefly but noted he couldn't talk much about whY. I couldn't see a lot so can't confirm but it did appear that there were robots and other equipment being installed in the area. It wouldn't surprise me if things were a little more advanced with the Y production area than has been indicated to date.

 

[Lessmog]

Up next. Disabling cruise control until we can keep people from holding the steering wheel with their knees.

I just love that our laws are created by people with an average age IQ of like 65. Really helps the US stay competitive in tech.​

​

FTFY

 

[StealthP3D]

FUD-Time News
"Musk forces employees to live in trailers, squalor."

After Musk vows to take care of the problem:

FUD-Time News:

Elitist Musk Says Trailer Parks Not Good Enough For Tesla Employees.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I did a Fremont factory tour on Monday night. They have a large area hoarded off to the left of where the tour starts off, near the area that the model 3 comes off the production line. The guide pointed it out briefly but noted he couldn't talk much about whY. I couldn't see a lot so can't confirm but it did appear that there were robots and other equipment being installed in the area. It wouldn't surprise me if things were a little more advanced with the Y production area than has been indicated to date.

I'm thinking Q1 gets that hit mentioned because of retooling for Y. Maybe a bit of demand lull from ended incentives Q1, but not much.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

I did a Fremont factory tour on Monday night. They have a large area hoarded off to the left of where the tour starts off, near the area that the model 3 comes off the production line. The guide pointed it out briefly but noted he couldn't talk much about whY. I couldn't see a lot so can't confirm but it did appear that there were robots and other equipment being installed in the area. It wouldn't surprise me if things were a little more advanced with the Y production area than has been indicated to date.

I suspect we will here and see more on the Y tomorrow night.

 

[Pezpunk]

Idea: Do we have any DC Tesla owners here? Call Markey (617-565-8519) and extend an offer to let him experience Autopilot in person to learn more about it. While it's probably unlikely you'd get taken up on your offer, but it may encourage him to try it regardless.

i'm in the area, but my P100D only has 1.0 hardware.