Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Carl Raymond]

Which is why you need more Powerwalls. Other than the Cybertruck, EVs don't charge themselves.

You only need powerwall to time shift energy. Unless you are very limited in your available car charging time slots, charge it when your energy flow is positive and avoid the time shift.

 

[dl003]

Fredneck is right. You are neglecting the fact that any cash (and debt) must be included in the market cap. Spending money on a share buyback reduces the amount of cash, and therefore the market cap by an equivalent amount.

Imagine, for the sake of simplicity, a company holds $100 million in cash. The company has no debt and no operations - a cash-holding company, so to speak. Clearly, the company should be valued at exactly $100 million. The company has a million shares outstanding. Each share is worth $100.

Now the company decides to buy back half its shares, for $50 million. It now has $50 million in cash, it's market value is $50 million, and there are 500,000 shares outstanding. So each share is still worth $100, but the market cap is halved, as it should.

This is exactly the reverse of raising capital: The next year, the company might raise $950 million in capital by selling 9,500,000 shares at $100 each. Now the cash hoard is $1 billion, the company is worth $1 billion, but with 10 million shares outstanding, so the stock price is still $100/share.

Yes, but what about the number of floats? Assuming the company retains its ability to generate income, share buybacks reduce the floats while keeping earnings the same. Same earnings, less shares = higher eps, no?

 

[Snapdragon III]

Lol, I had those exact same thought myself, and they are nonsense! They only work if you are valuing a company via its share price. Don't do that! Value Tesla by its growth rate, its gross margin, its total addressable market. Tels is moving into a $100T+ global market and it OWNS it, with insurmountable technology and unmatched execution.

Now I don't own any ARK funds, but do any of the (for example) biotech holdings have proprietary, proven assets that will CHANGE THE WORLD? Cure cancer? Turn cancer into bio-fuel? Feed the multitudes?

No I didn't think so. But ARK is selling TSLA to buy more of them. Makes zero sense for a fund that claims to have a 5 year investment horizon, and they are actually frickin' swing trading.

I attribute this to inexperience on the part of their CEO. She's not a Wall St. veteran, and doesn't appear to have any background in large wealth management (think GPF or PIF type money). At the rate they're going, they're not going to have that wealth any time soon, either.

Want to waste some time this afternoon? Sum up all the sales ARK did on Tesla in Q3/4 and price those gains against TSLA at today's bear-bottom. Then price those sales against ARK's bull/bear cases.

They're talking the talk, but not walkin' the walk. Cathie should go talk to Ron Baron. He's rich for a reason.

Cheers!

All the trash talk about ARK's performance on this thread is crazy. Over the last 5 years their flagship ARKK is up 175%, vs. Tesla up 165%, vs. S&P 500 up 65%. That is great performance for an ETF. A 10% position in a single company is a huge percentage for a fund like this. You can make the argument that actively managed funds are bad, but to try and say ARK doesn't have enough conviction on TSLA is crazy.

 

[humbaba]

Elon should get ahead of this situation and say something like:

“If they could do it for 85 then you should absolutely do both - Ours and theirs - we won’t interfere with each other and we’ll pay 100% for the joint entry exit platforms. If we don’t produce a working service you get your money back and you’ll have a trolley system in place.”

The result is a shared entry/exit and the consumer can vote. An awesome public experiment. If the Austrian service shuts down 5 years after opening then it would totally validate the Boring Co.

Edit: typo

Only problem is Las Vegas is only paying ~$52M for Boring Company. Why should they pay an extra ~$85M for extra capacity that isn't needed?

The other company (whose name I forget) was trying to sell the lowered price as "but we have experience milking customers so we are worth the 50% premium over Boring Company."

Which, again, speaks to Musk's penchant for disruption. This is rather like how SpaceX's legacy competitors complain about SpaceX making a nice profit -- all while doing it for less than the cost of service for the legacy companies.

Although Tesla is different because it sells to consumers rather than governments, its basic disruptive effect is the same. Tesla is able to do what the competitors cannot: offer good service/product for less money than the cost of the others doing so while still making a profit.

Make no mistake, this is the problem for Polestar, Id.3, etc. Not only do they need to get within spitting distance of Tesla's stats, they have to do it for approximately the same amount of money and somehow still turn a profit.

 

[avoigt]

Dusaniwsky says that since 2016, Tesla short sellers are down $11.1 billion.

Electric Burn: Those Who Bet Against Elon Musk And Tesla Are Paying A Big Price

 

[Nocturnal]

You guys might enjoy this - I posted an updated model of my TSLA price targets thru 2028 in Reddit’s r/investing subreddit and some of the replies I’m getting are pretty fun! I even got a DM from an awesome user stating their appreciation of the post and the cognitive dissonance in the comments.

Fair warning - I’m estimating a $17.5k price target by 2028

My revised (again) model of TSLA through 2028 (Price Target of $17,600 in 2028) : investing

I glanced at it. Your assumptions are reasonable, haven't looked at the model yet.

One thing I haven't seen anyone address, which I think is likely is Tesla licensing their tech. Say Tesla can gain 17% of the EV market through direct sales, it seems very unlikely that if their tech lead remains the same or grows, that other makers (at least 1) wouldn't want to license that tech. 17% direct sales and another X% of the EV market being cars where Tesla is collection a licensing fee of 1k? I have no idea how to fairly value that tech but I'm sure we could find ICE examples.

Oddly enough, I can wrap my head around Tesla SP hitting 6k or even far higher, but what I can't grasp is what that would mean for Elon or others who own a ton of shares. That would skyrocket Elon to the wealthiest man on the planet by far.

Dusaniwsky says that since 2016, Tesla short sellers are down $11.1 billion.

Electric Burn: Those Who Bet Against Elon Musk And Tesla Are Paying A Big Price

I don't see how you can look at that number and come to any conclusion other than the fact that there are huge money interests that are fine losing money to try take Tesla down. ​

 

[sparcs]

You have to admit TSLA is a stock that you can make money on either by betting it goes up or by betting it goes down. Like in many aspects of life it's all in the timing. I sold my shares that were into long term capital gains. Got $520 for them. I bet I can buy them back cheaper at some point. I mean significantly cheaper. Don't know what the quarter financials will show, but the stock is very inflated and anything remotely like bad news will make it drop a bunch. Then I'll get back in and wait for the next good news.

so when do you get back in? $350?

 

[ZsoZso]

People who say that Adam Jonas is

- stupid / idiot,
- "does not know what he is talking about",
- "bad at his job"

are all wrong.

If you think his job is to make realistic modeling and company valuation; write an "analysis" about it with probable outcomes and price targets, you are sadly mistaken.

His real job is to convince gullible investors to make certain moves (sell/buy/hold) that will benefit his employer.
In other words, he is a tool for market manipulation, and so is mass media with their reporting that is strong on sensationalism, but very weak on facts.

The price movement this morning proves that he is quite good at his job -- unfortunately.

 

[Nocturnal]

Can anyone confirm that it's possible to order FSD on the app without confirming/entering your password? The shorts are all in a tizzy (fwaud!) about a couple of people who claimed to have purchased it via butt dial. I'd check but I already own it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Pretty close. Bullish af price action today

I made some serious bank on put credit spreads today. Easiest dip I've ever done that on. Maybe I should knock on wood since the spreads are still open, lol...

 

[jerry33]

You only need powerwall to time shift energy. Unless you are very limited in your available car charging time slots, charge it when your energy flow is positive and avoid the time shift.

That's mostly true if you are combining Powerwalls with Solar. If you are using Powerwalls as your backup electricity source (because you can't use solar for one reason or another), it's different. in either case you need enough Poweralls to charge your cars and in the non-solar case enough to last for several days.

 

[Cherry Wine]

People who say that Adam Jonas is

are all wrong.

If you think his job is to make realistic modeling and company valuation; write an "analysis" about it with probable outcomes and price targets, you are sadly mistaken.

His real job is to convince gullible investors to make certain moves (sell/buy/hold) that will benefit his employer.
In other words, he is a tool for market manipulation, and so is mass media with their reporting that is strong on sensationalism, but very weak on facts.

The price movement this morning proves that he is quite good at his job -- unfortunately.

Do you think he may work in concert with others to amplify his attempts at manipulation? If not explicitly, maybe with a wink and a nod? Would be all too easy.

 

[sparcs]

Dusaniwsky says that since 2016, Tesla short sellers are down $11.1 billion.

Electric Burn: Those Who Bet Against Elon Musk And Tesla Are Paying A Big Price

not that i care much about TSLAQ, but i couldn't resist pulling out these choice quotes.

"We've lost a lot of money," says Mark Spiegel, the head of a small hedge fund that placed a very large bet against Tesla.

Spiegel's fund lost more than $1 million from shorting Tesla, which he started doing back in 2014. This week, he began cutting back.

"[It was] at 20% of the fund, sometimes a third of the fund, and I slashed it back today because [the stock price] is just so decoupled from reality," he said on Monday.

"I am the world's worst predictor of Tesla's stock price," he said.

Edit: I didn't realize there was even more crazy at the end of the article.

Even Spiegel, who has reduced the size of his position, hasn't changed his mind about the company's future.

He still says the stock prices will collapse — eventually.

Just like he's been saying for years.

"Obviously we've been way too early on the timing," Spiegel says. "But you never know that in advance."

 

[StealthP3D]

Any thoughts around this?

Tesla just became the most-shorted stock in the US, again (TSLA) | Markets Insider

Music to my ears, if true.

Unfortunately, the information comes straight from S3 Partners (Ihor's firm). It's an estimate which is subject to be distorted for other's financial gain.

 

[Pezpunk]

Dusaniwsky says that since 2016, Tesla short sellers are down $11.1 billion.

Electric Burn: Those Who Bet Against Elon Musk And Tesla Are Paying A Big Price

Mark Spiegel has an extremely insightful quote in that article:

"I am the world's worst predictor of Tesla's stock price"

 

[anthonyj]

You have to admit TSLA is a stock that you can make money on either by betting it goes up or by betting it goes down. Like in many aspects of life it's all in the timing. I sold my shares that were into long term capital gains. Got $520 for them. I bet I can buy them back cheaper at some point. I mean significantly cheaper. Don't know what the quarter financials will show, but the stock is very inflated and anything remotely like bad news will make it drop a bunch. Then I'll get back in and wait for the next good news.

ty for your sacrifice to the market gods

 

[kengchang]

Mark Spiegel has an extremely insightful quote in that article:

Spiegel's fund lost more than $1 million from shorting Tesla, which he started doing back in 2014. This week, he began cutting back.

"[It was] at 20% of the fund, sometimes a third of the fund, and I slashed it back today because [the stock price] is just so decoupled from reality," he said on Monday.

 

[Buckminster]

You guys might enjoy this - I posted an updated model of my TSLA price targets thru 2028 in Reddit’s r/investing subreddit and some of the replies I’m getting are pretty fun! I even got a DM from an awesome user stating their appreciation of the post and the cognitive dissonance in the comments.

Fair warning - I’m estimating a $17.5k price target by 2028

My revised (again) model of TSLA through 2028 (Price Target of $17,600 in 2028) : investing

I haven't started a hyperbull thread yet. Come back in a year when this is just a 10 bagger and I'll hook you up.

Interestingly, hyperbull is altered to hyperbole by spellcheck....

 

[willow_hiller]

Can anyone confirm that it's possible to order FSD on the app without confirming/entering your password? The shorts are all in a tizzy (fwaud!) about a couple of people who claimed to have purchased it via butt dial. I'd check but I already own it.

Three taps necessary to purchase FSD, two taps if you already have the Tesla app open.

1. Open Tesla app
2. Tap "Upgrades" (eligible upgrades are automatically checked)
3. Tap "Pay with Credit Card"

I don't know the odds of tapping all three in procession, but why are all these people keeping their phones unlocked in their pockets?

I think it's more likely people are deliberately pressing the "Pay with Credit Card" button without realizing it's final. I will admit that occasionally I visit the upgrades page just to stare wistfully at FSD. This is despite the fact that under the button it says "Upgrades are not refundable."

 

[Artful Dodger]

New Short Stats Speak Volumes. That's It | WSJ Sep 17, 2009 12:01 am ET

FTFY. I would't trust the Wall St. Urinal with my cat's litter box (nevermind data analysis and inferential statistics).