Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

WSJ - yesterday: Americans Show Scant Interest in Electric Vehicles, Subaru CEO Says

Excerpt:

Subaru Corp.’s chief executive said he didn’t see much evidence Americans want electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids and expressed frustration at navigating between environmental regulations and consumer demand.

“The only EVs that are selling well are from Tesla,” said Subaru’s Tomomi Nakamura at a briefing for journalists.

What the hell does he even mean? It’s like he’s saying “Here’s my thesis: Americans don’t want electric cars. The only thing that throws my thesis off are these Tesla thingys. But if you exclude those, no one wants electric cars.”

??????????????????????

 

[Green Pete]

I apologize if this was already posted. There have been way too many posts to catch up with in the last 24 hours. It appears Tesla had removed the "later this year" for FSD on model y orders. The speculation is that model y with launch with FC FSD. And as others have speculated here model y launch appears potentially early February.

 

[AlexS]

Proving once again his predictive abilities.

It is very hard to keep cool head when you have such a big bets, with such a high risks. I think he did a right thing to buy back before earnings. But he is crazy gambler.

 

[ammulder]

I apologize if this was already posted. There have been way too many posts to catch up with in the last 24 hours. It appears Tesla had removed the "later this year" for FSD on model y orders. The speculation is that model y with launch with FC FSD. And as others have speculated here model y launch appears potentially early February.

When I go to the Model Y order page it still says (along the bottom) "Production is expected to begin late next year"

 

[StealthP3D]

What the hell does he even mean? It’s like he’s saying “Here’s my thesis: Americans don’t want electric cars. The only thing that throws my thesis off are these Tesla thingys. But if you exclude those, no one wants electric cars.”

??????????????????????

Tesla sells SEV's (Superior Electric Vehicles).

Everyone knows about America's love of SEV's.

 

[shootformoon]

I think other OEMs are winning the race to bottom: being the Nokia in car business. At least VW's waking up. Its role model could be Samsung.

Which reminds me... I wrote an article about this earlier this week and used the Die Welt (not Auto Motor & Sport) version of the speech for that. Big response form the readers, 4x the average views, lots of comments (in the hundreds) and many arguing either with me, or each other about how wrong this article is and how stupid it is to suggest VW could become the next Nokia. The punch line: I did give some context, but 2/3 of the writing was word for word quotes from Diess, highlighted as such.

It is amazing how married some people are to the tropes of their camp even when their "leader" says otherwise. It`s like they refuse to accept reality.

 

[aubreymcfato]

It is very hard to keep cool head when you have such a big bets, with such a high risks. I think he did a right thing to buy back before earnings. But he is crazy gambler.

I'd love to know the net result of all his gamblings (buy, sell, options, with taxes and acapital gain). Not sure is positive... yet.
But probably just one big positive gamble will pay for them all, with dividends.

 

[woodisgood]

When I go to the Model Y order page it still says (along the bottom) "Production is expected to begin late next year"

Right alongside Cybertruck. Should be an excellent 2021/22!

 

[Pezpunk]

When I go to the Model Y order page it still says (along the bottom) "Production is expected to begin late next year"

i would advise taking Tesla at their word on these kinds of things, instead of relying on conspiracy theories that hypothesize that Tesla is wildly ahead of schedule on something. we seem to get burned over and over whenever we expect Tesla to outperform its own schedule or guidance.

maybe i'm wrong, but i think history is on my side here.

(clarification, i think we all understand "late next year" is a mistake, and refers to "late 2020")

 

[aubreymcfato]

OT:
The Wikipedia page for OEMs describe them as "suppliers"¹, not as the big automotive companies as we use the term here on TMC. Is it wrong or are we?


¹ Original equipment manufacturer - Wikipedia

 

[copyhacker]

WSJ - yesterday: Americans Show Scant Interest in Electric Vehicles, Subaru CEO Says

Excerpt:

Subaru Corp.’s chief executive said he didn’t see much evidence Americans want electric vehicles or plug-in hybrids and expressed frustration at navigating between environmental regulations and consumer demand.

“The only EVs that are selling well are from Tesla,” said Subaru’s Tomomi Nakamura at a briefing for journalists.

This is still the prevailing viewpoint at Big Auto. Check out this exchange on the latest Autoline After Hours (starting about 19:10):

Host: 600K Cybertrucks, I mean, that's an extreme number.
Munro: How many F150s were sold last year?
Host: 740K?
Munro: And how many did Ram throw out?
Host: Ram was in the 640K range, something like that? Number two.
Munro: So 600K is not [extreme]
Host: Well, yeah, for pickup trucks, yes, I understand that. But for electric vehicles...

They're going to keep right on putting Tesla in the tiny little box labeled electric vehicles--not realizing that the vast majority of people buy them because they're better cars.

 

[Todd Burch]

When I go to the Model Y order page it still says (along the bottom) "Production is expected to begin late next year"

Underpromise, overdeliver?

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

The 543 area we've been in for over an hour now is really almost ATH. The 547 lasted for like 2 minutes and doesn't even show on the weekly/monthly graphs. The last 90 minutes is stronger than even the best hour on Jan 14.

 

[woodisgood]

i would advise taking Tesla at their word on these kinds of things, instead of relying on conspiracy theories that hypothesize that Tesla is wildly ahead of schedule on something. we seem to get burned over and over whenever we expect Tesla to outperform its own schedule or guidance.

maybe i'm wrong, but i think history is on my side here.

(clarification, i think we all understand "next year" is a mistake, and refers to 2020)

If it hasn't been used already, this could be a new short tactic. Risky in the short-term since it runs up the SP but pays off long-term. Sandbagging to counter sandbagging, so to speak.

 

[jeewee3000]

When I go to the Model Y order page it still says (along the bottom) "Production is expected to begin late next year"

Yes, but they are talking about FSD.

I checked the Model Y order page for Belgium (Dutch language), and indeed where it shows "Volledig zelfrijdende besturing" (=FSD) it does NOT seperate recognition of stop signs/traffic lights and city driving as in "expected later on".

The rumours could be valid, especially since FSD feature complete was expected for december 2019.

 

[Pezpunk]

This is still the prevailing viewpoint at Big Auto. Check out this exchange on the latest Autoline After Hours (starting about 19:10):

Host: 600K Cybertrucks, I mean, that's an extreme number.
Munro: How many F150s were sold last year?
Host: 740K?
Munro: And how many did Ram throw out?
Host: Ram was in the 640K range, something like that? Number two.
Munro: So 600K is not [extreme]
Host: Well, yeah, for pickup trucks, yes, I understand that. But for electric vehicles...

They're going to keep right on putting Tesla in the tiny little box labeled electric vehicles--not realizing that the vast majority of people buy them because they're better cars.

Exactly. I keep seeing CEOs and analysts say things like "people don't want to pay extra money to be inconvenienced," but if they just asked Tesla owners, they will almost all say an electric vehicle with adequate range is MORE convenient than an ICE vehicle by a large margin.

 

[StealthP3D]

OT:
The Wikipedia page for OEMs describe them as "suppliers"¹, not as the big automotive companies as we use the term here on TMC. Is it wrong or are we?


¹ Original equipment manufacturer - Wikipedia

Previously, I always used the term in the strict sense but have recently given in because it's commonly used in a much more general sense (for lack of a better short word).

 

[jeewee3000]

Exactly. I keep seeing CEOs and analysts say things like "people don't want to pay extra money to be inconvenienced," but if they just asked Tesla owners, they will almost all say an electric vehicle with adequate range is MORE convenient than an ICE vehicle by a large margin.

I love hearing/reading misconceptions like this because the more the penny has yet to drop, the higher the stock has room to run in the coming years.

 

[StealthP3D]

The 543 area we've been in for over an hour now is really almost ATH. The 547 lasted for like 2 minutes and doesn't even show on the weekly/monthly graphs. The last 90 minutes is stronger than even the best hour on Jan 14.

It looks to me like we will break through $550 within the hour.

 

[X Fan]

Been out flying this morning but clearly happy to see that the shorts attempt to derail the stock has backfired.

FWIW: the FUD attack is damaging (my 80 yr old Mother-in-law told me yesterday that she saw/heard Teslas were dangerous due to unintended acceleration....I told her pure nonsense but....) and I wish they could be legally penalized.