Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cosmacelf]

Yep, that's my interpretation as well.

One thing many still have not realized I think is how much the metal casting machine magic is going to help Fremont production capacity: the chassis lines used a lot of expensive welding robots to weld together 70+ stamped pieces of the Model 3 underbody...

With the casting machine that's just ~4 pieces which are shipped in from the foundry.

Much lower capex footprint plus better utilization of factory footprint, less workload for the stamping lines plus significantly lower cost of goods ...

I was surprised when there was no [edit] mention made of this in the CC. I mean they included an obvious picture of a cast part for friggin sake. I’m not surprised none of the analysts saw it, understood the implications, etc. they are useless. But I was expecting Elon to talk about it. Instead, we are going to get Elon eventually chortling about how they hid an Easter egg in the quarterly report.

Obviously they didn’t need to gild the lilly. The stock price action AH was all the indication they needed to realize they could wait until later to deliver this piece of good news that WE all know about. I am pretty sure they have lined up a bunch of little surprises like this for the Q1 earnings report since as the CFO said, that will be a challenging quarter.

 

[Mokuzai]

but still holding 5

Any idea what price you're thinking of unloading those 5? I have a GTC order in at $140 but at $120 part of me is screaming "take the money and run!".

 

[SMAlset]

Cramer just teased "today on Mad Money, I'm going to talk about the greatest technology stock you've ever seen, and it's on wheels"!

thanks for the heads up. I was thinking yesterday he would say more than the little he did. Don’t think they tape in advance so guessing he wsnted to make it more inclusive with comments and do as his lead.

 

[Nocturnal]

I believe that was what Adam Jonas was trying to do when asking about starlink.

It's a shame he didn't ask a broader question about how Tesla could leverage SpaceEx and Boring Co tech.

 

[RobStark]

@ZachShahan

Just a reminder from a couple of years ago.

This is the year both Cadillac and Tesla aim to cross 500k sales.

Cadillac 2019 390k vehicles sold.

 

[jerry33]

When they released the CT, I think even Elon had doubts that it would be accepted by general truck-loving customers. He has been taken by surprise on how well it was accepted and the shear volume of reservations. Plus most reservations were for the higher priced models! So I would think the numbers are well above 3 and Y

Me too. But few want a 200 mile truck--even if the 200 miles is fully loaded pulling the maximum, which I don't think it is.

 

[Remus]

Key Notes from Tesla Q4:

• 2020 deliveries guidance lower bound of 500k. I've seen many people mischaracterize 500k as Tesla's 2020 guidance. It is not, it is a lower bound that they expect to hit even if they encounter huge issues with the Model Y and GF3 production ramps. Given their comments on production plans, I think the undisclosed upper bound is likely ~650k.
• Production capacity of 590k in Fremont and at least 150k in China by the end of June. They also plan to take the GF3 Model 3 line beyond 150k and the Model Y GF3 factory is under construction. I still expect Tesla to take Fremont 3 + Y beyond 500k capacity later this year. 500k can be achieved quickly with low capex and mostly existing staff. Body Shop capacity is very likely going to be significantly above 500k at June, but taking all sub lines beyond 500k will likely require a Paint shop upgrade and possibly a change to stamping. General assembly capacity is unclear - it is low capex and low opex but footprint availability is the only question.
• Tesla appears to be much further with its plans to move to end to end machine learning on video from 8 camera feeds than I expected. This is likely using their new Project Dojo server chip for neural net training. This is likely to be game changing not only for Tesla's Autopilot accuracy/disengagement rates, but for the Artificial Intelligence field generally.
• The team appears to be getting even more excited about their huge battery cell breakthroughs and this should be revealed in April.
• Model Y is in production already and to some extent production capacity will be flexible between 3 & Y ( i think this means battery supply, Paintshop and general assembly while casting shop and body shop will be separate). Tesla will be incentivised to divert as much capacity to Model Y as possible (and this could lead to Model 3 price rises). Even without price rises, this is likely to significantly improve ASP mix and margins for Fremont in 2020 given Model Y gross profit per car will be ~$3k higher than an equivalent Model 3 and that initial orders will be limited to the extremely high ASP and margin AWD and P models.

Debbie Downer here.

It appears that the new battery manufacturing methods are still under development and not ready for fast expansion yet. I listened to the call and it might be my hallucinations but Elon seems not happy about it. It would limit all the product expansion plan especially the energy side.

For Tesla this might be a bump on the road to be the biggest car and energy company in the world. Hope this bump be ironed out soon.

 

[Nocturnal]

Read through Mark B. Spiegel's Twitter feed. You'll find that the arguments from TSLAQ on Twitter are now pretty much exclusively centered around fraud. What other bear argument is left?

It's hilarious and sad. Yesterday they shared a repair receipt for a Tesla, windshield wiper blades, key fob battery, air filter, and then made hay of the fact that it was written off as goodwill. Uhh, yeah you idiots. Warranties don't cover consumables.

They also believe that based on a couple people "but buying" FSD from their apps that thousands of customers had those charges and that's why Q4 was profitable.

Debbie Downer here.

It appears that the new battery manufacturing methods are still under development and not ready for fast expansion yet. I listened to the call and it might be my hallucinations but Elon seems not happy about it. It would limit all the product expansion plan especially the energy side.

For Tesla this might be a bump on the road to be the biggest car and energy company in the world. Hope this bump be ironed out soon.

I didn't take it that way. I think he sees where he wants to go, and then is understanding about the magnitude of effort required to make enough batteries to get there. If even Tesla can't scale batteries fast enough, competitors are doubly hosed. ​

 

[AudubonB]

Well my account is up by almost my yearly salary even before I am out of bed this morning. It is a sweet feeling of vindication for having to listen to all the snide comments from colleagues for last 6 years!

Slacker.
You should be a small-time lodge owner in Alaska. Takes a lot less time than getting out of bed to slam past that benchmark...it's closer to the decadal mark

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I wonder whether the guy who shorted at $180 is still short.

Afterall, I had bought some at $370 and was still long at $180 !

ps : My 401k & IRA stock has much higher avg cost.

At $180, you had a little less than 50% of your original investment. At $645, the guy who shorted at $180 has $-258% of his original “investment”

 

[Prunesquallor]

Lol, I have that book in paperback, read it back in '84... real question is "when did ELON read it?"

View attachment 505945

Cheers!

As I recall, that novel was also the origination of Heinlein's “It’s raining soup and we have no bowls".

 

[SMAlset]

I was surprised when there was mention made of this in the CC. I mean they included an obvious picture of a cast part for friggin sake. I’m not surprised none of the analysts saw it, understood the implications, etc. they are useless. But I was expecting Elon to talk about it. Instead, we are going to get Elon eventually chortling about how they hid an Easter egg in the quarterly report.

Obviously they didn’t need to gild the lilly. The stock price action AH was all the indication they needed to realize they could wait until later to deliver this piece of good news that WE all know about. I am pretty sure they have lined up a bunch of little surprises like this for the Q1 earnings report since as the CFO said, that will be a challenging quarter.

Elon did say something recently when asked about Model Y that Sandy Munro would probably be happy with some of the production changes. No doubt this would be one of them.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It's hilarious and sad. Yesterday they shared a repair receipt for a Tesla, windshield wiper blades, key fob battery, air filter, and then made hay of the fact that it was written off as goodwill. Uhh, yeah you idiots. Warranties don't cover consumables.

They also believe that based on a couple people "but buying" FSD from their apps that thousands of customers had those charges and that's why Q4 was profitable.

One of them told me ~a week ago on twitter that it wasn’t just a couple, it was “a lot”. I asked them to define “a lot” but they immediately stopped responding for some reason...

 

[AudubonB]

I imagine we'll get to the point where the stock is only up $10 in a day and start worrying that something is wrong.

So you think it's headed to $16,000 too, then?

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes we have. I was waiting for someone to rub some salt in.

No problem though, I already bailed. Thank god for that dip just now. Saved me about 30-40k.

Wasn't trying to be mean, I also made a poor decision to sell some options way too early, not in your league though.

I take it as a learning experience and I keep reading the advice of the smarter cookies that post here in the hope that next time I'll guide myself to better judgement.

 

[BriansTesla]

I was reflecting back to 2013 sitting at a table with Dana Hull at Teslive. She quoted me in her article about that event. “Fifty years from now,” Steel said, “people will look back at Tesla and this event and say, ‘This is when the world changed.’ “

I guess she wasn't listening.

Teslive

Thanks to all the contributors here for the great information and discussion.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

I do think Starlink is a natural fit for providing wifi at Supercharger locations.

But it baffles me that you think people will be watching movies (much) while charging. Our Model 3's charge so fast there is simply not time to pick a movie to watch, let alone watch it. Our Model 3's don't need a charge until we have been driving for hours on the Interstate and by then we need to relieve our bladders and get a quick snack. By the time we are able to do that, the car is charged and ready to go on the next leg of our journey.

When are people going to find time to watch movies while Supercharging?

Totally agree. When we have traveled with our Model 3 we scheduled charging around meal stops mostly. It's damn inconvenient to have to go out and move your car because it's done charging when you haven't even gotten your order yet!

Dan

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes. But then there is cost. Starlink, like all satellite services WILL have bandwidth constraints, and thus probably either data caps or expensive plans.

It's silly to conclude data plans will be expensive simply because it "will have bandwidth constraints". Every technology used to deliver data has bandwidth constraints. Starlink is designed to bring low-cost, low latency broadband services to rural areas.

It isn’t obvious that Starlink 5G backhaul, which would use a lot of continuous bandwidth, would be cheaper than fiber.

Obviously, it won't be cheaper than fiber in most cases. But the idea you were responding to is that it might be cheaper for some hilltop locations that are expensive to reach with fiber.

 

[FrankSG]

Anchor: What is Battery Day, Jim?
Cramer: A day to celebrate batteries, man...

 

[Nocturnal]

One of them told me ~a week ago on twitter that it wasn’t just a couple, it was “a lot”. I asked them to define “a lot” but they immediately stopped responding for some reason...

I have a conspiracy theory in mind that says some of the TSLAQ crowd are just trolls trying to make people lose money or super longs trying to keep the price down. It's probably not true, but it would certainly explain some of the crazy. They will like and share ANYTHING if it remotely reflects poorly on Tesla, regardless of source or facts.

Of course Occam's razor tells me that they are just the type of people who relish conspiracies and fake news.