Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kbM3]

OT

Have to point out the assumption for “sell up, buy down” to work is either you can time the peak perfectly, or you have unlimited capital to work with.

For an average retail investor, it might look like:

• $350: Sell X shares ($350*X)
• $400: Sell X shares ($400*X)
• $450: Sell X shares ($450*X)
  
• $500: Sell X shares ($500*X)
• $550: No more shares to sell
• $600: No more shares to sell
• $650: No more shares to sell
  
• $700: No more shares to sell
• $750: No more shares to sell
• $800: No more shares to sell
• $850: No more shares to sell
• $900: No more shares to sell
  
• $850: Too high, won’t buy
  
• $800: Too high, won’t buy
• $750: Too high, won’t buy
• $700: Too high, won’t buy

This is exactly how one misses the bus.

I just posted the method I used today in a new thread about diversification. It really worked well today, so would appreciate any thoughts.

A Method for Automatic Portfolio Rebalancing

 

[RobStark]

Nuro gets green light to deploy 5,000 driverless delivery bots

(NHTSA gives approval)

U.S. House Democrats propose electric vehicle charging network

 

[MP3Mike]

I made a graph. I'm rather dubious they'll catch up to the number of ships as in Q4 (one of which outright departed at the end of Q3 - Q4 started with a lot of EU inventory ready), but it's in the range of possibilities.

Am I just being dense? It looks to me like Q1 is already ahead of Q4, so what do you mean by can it catch up? Isn't it already ahead?

 

[StealthP3D]

Apparently Teslarati is now offering trading advice..

Tesla (TSLA) investors need a 420 break, don't be so eager to jump right back in

That's pretty funny. He's addressing TSLA investors as if we all sold at $800 or $900. I mean, we can't "jump back in" if we still have our original positions. At least that's the impression he's trying to create (that we all sold during the two day drop).

There's no way to tell if we drop significantly lower before making new highs. Normal volatility and time suggest we probably will, at some point, touch prices maybe around $100 lower. On the other hand, we may not.

Stock momentum is not like momentum in classical physics in which once forward momentum has been stopped, there is no momentum left. With stocks, momentum is caused by human factors and a lot of eyes have been opened recently. So, it's not a given we will go a lot lower which is why I'm not selling at $748. I've ridden a lot of stocks down and back up to spectacular new highs - it's just the way it works.

TSLA's all-time closing high is $887.06. Currently $748.96, a difference of $138.10 or 18.4% off the high.

Look at this QCOM chart from the beginning of Qualcomm's 1999 run. On April 19th the price had dropped 21.4% off it's all-time high that was set 3 days trading days previous, April 14th. Since the shares had nearly tripled since the beginning of the year, many believed the stock had topped out. That this was the "blow-off top". But then, only two days after dropping 21.4% from April 14th all-time high, it went on to make a new high where it continued to climb for the rest of the year, eventually reaching over 8 times the valuation of it's April 14th high. Yes, it did decline for a few years after it's grand all-time high when the tech bubble burst, but it never retreated as low as its original all-time high of April 14th. That's an important point. Anyone who sold during that April high (or shortly after) never had a chance to buy it back for less. And they missed all the gains to the true end of the year top (actually in January).

My point here is not that I expect TSLA to mimic QCOM, I don't. It's simply that when everyone thinks there was a blow-off top, a top that was so crazy over-valued that it couldn't possibly do anything but continue to go down, it just might keep going up. And up. Also note that this chart has more than one big "gap up" that never got filled.

There are many other stocks that provide examples of this, I'm only using Qualcomm because I participated in it and am familiar with how so many people assumed it couldn't continue to climb after nearly tripling early in the year and then dropping so sharply and quickly. People were giddy at that point that they had nearly tripled their value since the beginning of the year. I held on and became a multi-millionaire before the year was finished. Again, I really don't expect that to happen here, that quickly. The point is that stocks can fly higher, much higher than anyone thought.

 

[Curt Renz]

I just got off a half-hour phone conversation with my Illinois state representative.

We discussed:
tax credits for purchases of EVs
tax credits for 240-volt outlets installed in older home garages
mandatory 240-volt outlets for brand new home garages
incentives for companies to build charging stations
incentives for Tesla to build a factory in Illinois
autonomous driving regulations
eventually replacing the gasoline tax with alternatives to pay for roadwork

Since Tesla has always been allowed to sell and service in Illinois, there was no need to provide encouragement.

I suggested he test drive a Tesla. He said he will.

 

[elasalle]

Glad to see them keeping shipping going at quite apace

View attachment 508700

I made a graph. I'm rather dubious they'll catch up to the number of ships as in Q4 (one of which outright departed at the end of Q3 - Q4 started with a lot of EU inventory ready), but it's in the range of possibilities.

View attachment 508709

I think the assumption/plan would be for Q1 to have less ships than Q4, because Giga China was coming online. Unless China volume could be replaced by new markets S. Korea and surge in EU demand?

 

[rsm287]

Am I just being dense? It looks to me like Q1 is already ahead of Q4, so what do you mean by can it catch up? Isn't it already ahead?

The vertical axis is the number of days into the quarter. So in Q4 the first ship started at maybe -1 or so, whereas in Q1 the first ship was at around +7 (or 7 days into the quarter).....which means that Q1 is around 8 days behind Q4. By the time you get to 8 ships Q1 is maybe 9 days behind, but the trend is downwards (towards being less days behind), so maybe it could catch up somewhat by the end of the quarter if this trend continues.

 

[RobStark]

Unless China volume could be replaced by new markets S. Korea and surge in EU demand?

I definitely expect a surge in UK demand with new rules for corporate leasing of company vehicles giving BEVs an advantage.

It seems Germany will delay their incentives until VW gets all their ducks in a row.

 

[TradingInvest]

For the record, I don't think @MFranc123 is trying to pull a care-bear raid here. I think that they legitimately mean what they're saying, and legitimately mean the best.

Heck, half of us here already do that (deleverage on the way up, releverage on the way down). If we're going to chew out anyone who believe in that trading strategy, there's a lot of people on this forum that will become targets.

At the same time, I'd ask @MFranc123 understand that we regularly get lame care-bear raid attempts here, they're really annoying, and so to be understanding when people react harshly any time it looks like someone might be trying to pull one.

Agree with Karen about MFranc123's intention. Right now my account is mostly TSLA shares, plus some long term Calls. All long, no margin, no hedging. I feel very comfortable. I welcome bear attacks. If they can drive it to $200, please do it. I would happily add more shares whenever I can.

At this point I don't pay too much attention to the stock price, I care how many shares I own. I'm a proud cult member and a share collector.

 

[Davidzhao365]

This is a shared doc listing Tesla weekly news for retail investors. Everyone can edit. Shared on twitter and TMC weekly

Tesla Investor Weekly Summary

 

[Creekstalker]

I thought hard about selling some above $900 and I also thought hard about selling during yesterday's hard drop.

Here's what saved me:

1) Prior to this week, the fundamentals of Tesla were looking great. Nobody really and truly thinks bankruptcy is actually a possibility any more. Growth companies that blow past expectations tend to go up a lot. TSLA earned a spike.

2) Nothing has changed fundamentally all week. Coronavirus might ding production and sales temporarily. I think this is fair to point out as a negative. Losing a week or two of production in China will be a blip on the radar in a year. Instead of watching my net worth I'm focusing on the company. The company was pretty stable all week, and now Panasonic is making money off Tesla.

3) I don't know what Tesla the company ought to be worth other than some $$ amount greater than it was worth prior to earnings. The stock price, whether it is $500 or $1,000 currently reflects my belief. The stock price is just the average of all our opinions anyway, and it will continue to rise over time as long as Tesla executes. I have a 5-10 year time horizon so I can afford short-term gyrations. I could've sold for $960, true. Or I could've panicked and sold for $760 yesterday. But in a few years I will be able to sell for a lot more than either of those numbers.

I'm accumulating cash and buying any 10% dip once this volume craziness settles back down.

 

[gerebgraus]

The shorts aren't sending their best. Well, now that I think about it, perhaps they are.

I am not against shorting in principle. I am absolutely convinced that there are sane, honest shorts. I will keep looking for one.

 

[StealthP3D]

This raises the question for me, if Musk were to sell his businesses, what would he put the money to? The easy quip is, Mars, but really his businesses are the best means to colonizing Mars. Moreover, a healthy culture and ecosystem here on Earth is absolutely critical to sustaining life on Mars.

Just like the "millionaire" that retires at age 50 with a million dollars and quickly realizes it wasn't nearly enough, Musk needs a lot more money to actually colonize Mars in a sustainable fashion. Mars is extremely inhospitable. The difference is, even the ever-optimistic Elon knows his chances of making a worthwhile, self-sustaining colony are much better with many times more money.

 

[MC3OZ]

Am I just being dense? It looks to me like Q1 is already ahead of Q4, so what do you mean by can it catch up? Isn't it already ahead?

It has taken more days to get to the same ship no...

Q1 deliveries are my only remaining (short term) concern... but as it is only short term, I would not be overly worried..

China can still add to deliveries and Model Y can still increase ASPs....

As well we need to take out some of the Q4 ships going to China, I don't know if the graph does that...

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Today’s price action bodes well for the stock price going forward. With the uptick rule in effect and the shorts being handicapped in their manipulation, it shows that there are still a lot of buyers at these price levels. They might come back in full force tomorrow, but I think as of next week we’ll be ok.

 

[ggr]

Mod: a few more Starlink IPO posts moved to the dedicated thread. No more here. --ggr

 

[StealthP3D]

You appear to have no interest in the company so your motives are misaligned with most people here.

No interest in TSLA? It would seem any person with a short position of any size, their interest is in seeing the company fail. Unless they think money is evil and are trying to get rid of it without burdening someone they know with it.

 

[kengchang]

Model Y EPA is out
Compare Side-by-Side

 

[Fobble]

Model Y EPA is out
Compare Side-by-Side

View attachment 508729

Model Y is more efficient than Model 3? How do they achieve that?

 

[kengchang]

Model Y is more efficient than Model 3? How do they achieve that?

Elon being Elon, but Y is supposed to have heat pump