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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I buy and hold TSLA ... so guess what ... i don't have to spend time reading this but i know whatever @StealthP3D is saying is correct !!! ... I only have to look at the SP for buying opportunities like this week has provided .... I do not spend hours figuring out puts/calls and the various complex strategies required to win that game ..I do spend time researching TSLA and its markets/prospects/future/financials which I feel is a better use of my time vs trading... i might have jumped into more long shares too quick at $ 680 this week ... but in 5 -10 years the difference between $680 and $500 will almost seem meaninglessSometimes simple is better.
I don't put a lot of importance of being well-diversified but it depends upon your financial situation as well as the stock(s) involved. Buy and Hold is not incompatible with some amount of portfolio rebalancing but most people overdo it.
Every individual has a unique situation. At over 90% one stock, even I would rebalance some. But keep in mind your example started out with an initial position of 50% in TSLA at $30. When Tesla was at $30 I couldn't buy ANY of it (let alone 50% of my portfolio!) because it was too speculative. As a company establishes it's "Gorilla" status I become more comfortable holding a larger position but this will be different depending upon an individual's specific situation.
Let's look at the rather extreme scenario you laid out above. First off, I see it would be highly atypical for someone to put $100,000 of a $200,000 portfolio in stock as speculative as TSLA was in 2012 when it was a fledgling automotive company trading at $30. I'm sure someone did but this example is already an outlier at best. Ignoring that, observation tells me that most people (that bought around $30) sold most or all of it at $150 or less. So someone who held on to every share at $900 is going to have a HUGE amount of emotional leeway to be able to watch it drop from $900 to $600 (or even less) without even batting an eye compared to someone who sold most of it off at $90-$150 or less (and later re-bought for more).
A basic tenant of my style of buy and hold investing is that you don't sell just because it seems like you have done really well (because you will likely leave a lot of money on the table). This doesn't preclude selling some because your portfolio has become extremely concentrated in one position, it just says to use a good amount of restraint before doing so. To me, restraint means waiting to rebalance until after a stock is done reaching for the sky, not on the way up. For example, if I found with TSLA climbing through $500 I had an uncomfortable amount of TSLA in my account and wanted to rebalance, I would wait and watch for a couple of weeks rather than selling at $500 to "lock in my gains". Growth stocks, once they become a "darling" can go higher than you ever thought. You never hit the top this way but you might be surprised how it prevents you from leaving huge amounts of money on the table. But the key thing is NOT selling simply because it has had a good run.
I'm not going to speak for Karen but I believe she uses that strategy when she is taking on additional leverage through options. While that strategy can be used with a basic long position the tax implications for most people preclude it from being an advantage. Because one of the fundamental strengths of a Buy and Hold strategy is deferring taxes and letting your investments compound. I can testify, the benefit is eye-opening. When you trade regularly, all that goes out the window.
I don't believe you should ever invest a single dollar that you are not mentally prepared to lose. And I've never advocated (or used) margin. So your "rules" don't really make a lot of sense to me, especially at the end where you say, "Only after you have more than enough outside Tesla (or in future income) where you can safely sustain a black swan event, should you never sell a share.". Because, even in my 30's when I was investing discretionary income with gusto, I knew I could sustain a "black swan event". I've always been prepared to lose it all and don't recommend anyone enter the stock market without knowing everything could go to hell in a handbasket. Additionally, some day I will sell all of my TSLA (if I live long enough).
BTW, I just added more TSLA shares @ $645 as I was explaining this.
Yeah, meanwhile my plays on vaccines against the CV are actually DOWN today.
JakeP
S P4996 ==> P02547
^^This.but in 5 -10 years the difference between $680 and $500 will almost seem meaningless
Somewhere, somebody is thanking their lucky stars it wasn't called the heinekenvirus
I’ve said this many times, and will say it again now:
The mechanics of Max pain means it’s like a magnet, the further the price gets from the max pain point, the less strong the pull and the less likely it will have an effect on closing price.
I reside in Miami, several brand new model s with no mileage,
Optioned with color paint and dark wheels and white interiors
Are being discounted by $1000. These are not the
Raven plus with tempest wheels.
Today, for the first time during this crash, I was actually up because my puts rose more than my portfolio fell.
Also I'm buying more puts in anticipation of more media hysteria over the weekend.
Also death to shorty. I haven't sold a single share, you'll pry them from my cold, dead hands Chanos!
Also I'm buying more puts in anticipation of more media hysteria over the weekend.
Also death to shorty. I haven't sold a single share, you'll pry them from my cold, dead hands Chanos!
My $630 call for June 2020 is showing some green. Amazing.
Humongous Tesla Battery Plant Approved In California Is 10× Bigger Than World’s Biggest Battery Plant (Australia's Hornsdale)
Humongous Tesla Battery Plant Approved In California Is 10× Bigger Than World's Biggest Battery Plant | CleanTechnica
Humongous Tesla Battery Plant Approved In California Is 10× Bigger Than World's Biggest Battery Plant | CleanTechnica
I have had this happen both with AP on and AP off. Not sure where the line is but the car will certainly avoid cars in both kinds of dangerous situations.
Two words: call spreads
Indeed. IMHO, it's not much of a risk when doing what I'm doing currently, since I have fixed points for buying and selling (as soon as one buy executes, I reestablish the order as a sell on the other strike, and vice versa). It's more of a risk for rolling spreads when the stock gaps up on a crazy day, where it might be hard to keep track of everything you're buying and selling; I've had days where I've had to do dozens of orders.
[...]
In general, it's good not-advice!
Trying to wrap my head around your non-advice..
Isn't the biggest risk that your buyback order is triggered on the way down, and that the stock doesn't go up before the expiry date, or at least your sell order is not triggered before expiry date? Then you're out of potentially a lot more cash than what you gained on the sell..
You told you work with LEAPs which mitigates the risk, but as time progresses your LEAPs stop being LEAPs of course..
Do you run your spread till expiry, or is there a point at which you wrap it up and move to new expiry date?
Yup, another big piece of news that the media hasn't picked up. If it's like the Hornsdale project it will have a payback period of around 3 years. After that it's gravy. I honestly think that if Tesla can massively ramp up their battery production they will be able to build these all over. I assume they haven't been aggressive in pursuing new business because they just can't supply enough.
The optimist in me says that once the hysteria dies down, the market will look around and assess the actual damage. Companies that rely on Chinese parts will be kept low or hit harder, travel companies will be hit harder, companies that facilitate people staying at home will be looking good. And on the Tesla front I hope they look at all the new things Tesla is doing, Y, batteries, new factory announcement (hopefully), and decide that it's still a growth play and all the positive news hits at once.
Well in terms of Tesla the worst case scenario (short of Musk getting killed by it) is probably a large enough outbreak in California & Nevada that Tesla has to cease production at its factories for weeks/months, while at the same time a global recession leads to less orders for premium cars in the near term. Wouldn’t be fatal for the company (plenty of cash and credit lines to cover OpEx etc), but would be a hit to the balance sheet and of course near term earnings.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
We know that correlation does not equal causation but, in this case, I think it's a safe assumption.
Likewise, I would expect dealers who sell accessories for royalty to report sales of crowns have been negatively impacted, especially in Spanish-speaking regions of the globe.
1st In, 1st Out ..
Apple's Tim Cook: Our Factories in China Are 'Getting Back to Normal'
Apple CEO Tim Cook told Fox Business News on Thursday that he's optimistic that China has gotten the coronavirus outbreak under control, and said that its factories in China that were shut down were getting closer to normal production.
(Hope this is not Axed to Other Trading .. thought it was Market relevant .. even though it is about Corona, China and Apple)
Apple's Tim Cook: Our Factories in China Are 'Getting Back to Normal'
Apple CEO Tim Cook told Fox Business News on Thursday that he's optimistic that China has gotten the coronavirus outbreak under control, and said that its factories in China that were shut down were getting closer to normal production.
(Hope this is not Axed to Other Trading .. thought it was Market relevant .. even though it is about Corona, China and Apple)
Tesla already announced at earnings that Model Y is launching in Q1, a late March launch is not really worthy of big headlines considering it is near the end of the window Tesla had already set.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Executed just now. Selling puts is uncomfortable. Is the SP up yet!?!?!?
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