Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Heimdallr]

Relief rally cancelled? I guess this is due to the OECD report for 2020 worldwide economic growth, down from 2.9% (forecast in fall 19) to 1.5% (today's forecast).

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

If the GF3 drone video from the other day was "stopped production" with a "broken supply chain", I can't wait to see what it looks like when it's started Looks busier than the end of January, the previous production-high.

Its not specific to tsla, but a general observation.
Q1 ER will be very interesting.

The February China PMI readings are the first snapshot of the economy's state since the start of the coronavirus outbreak

 

[Highway2Heel]

Time to make some more small buys on the dip.

 

[Christine69420]

Is it possible to invest in Tesla indirectly from Europe?

I have an extra investment account where only EU/EEC stocks and funds can be bought. But on the other side I can trade freely without paying taxes.

Currently I only have some global index funds there. But I might change that if I found something TSLA related. For now I can only find 10x bull/bear products and those are not what I want.

Already tried the TL0 at Frankfurt but wasn't allowed since Tesla is based in the US.

Any EU/EEC funds/ETFs with lots of TSLA?

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Relief rally cancelled? I guess this is due to the OECD report for 2020 worldwide economic growth, down from 2.9% (forecast in fall 19) to 1.5% (today's forecast).

Wild swings in Dow futures.
1000 point range since last night

 

[Dare]

Dipped into a bit more dry powder in premarket. Feeling green this morning.

 

[jerry33]

I wonder how much quieter an electric jet would be. Is such a product remotely in the realm of future Tesla endeavors?

I wouldn't think it would be much quieter because basically jets move air at high pressures and volumes and moving air at high pressures and volumes is loud.

 

[hacer]

Did you have time to catch up on your reading yet? Specifically, did you read about the Fri Feb 28, 2020 Daily Short Selling Report from FINRA?

Yes, and I had a response to that too.

The "Uptick Rule" curcuit breakers were in effect for both the Thu and Fri sessions, yet naked short selling spiked to significant highs. This is EXACTLY the circumstance that the uptick rule is designed to prevent, in order to give investors time to assess their positions without the undue selling pressure of short selling. Naked short selling by MMs below the last trade price with the uptick rule in effect, simply to ease their exposure, is a plain violation of Regulation SHO. #SEC
...
Friday's naked short shares could have traded above or below the days' avg SP, but selling them ENABLED all the other short selling which occured on Fri simply by dropping the most recent sale price (thus a MM was circumventing the "uptick rule). ...

You haven't provided any evidence that any of the naked short selling was done on down-ticks. Not your fault because so information isn't readily available. It is certainly possible that some or most of it could have been on downticks but then again all of it could also have been done on upticks. We don't know. A market maker would surely have the technology to always be at the lowest ask that doesn't cross the market and thus sell into any uptick that comes along.

I don't see how an illegal short sale on a downtick would "enable" other short selling. The illegal sale would result in another downtick which provides no opening for a public customer to short on that downtick.

 

[JRP3]

Lol Spiegel
After ‘refreshing’ month, Tesla bear predicts ‘biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market’ will hit zero

 

[Dare]

Lol Spiegel
After ‘refreshing’ month, Tesla bear predicts ‘biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market’ will hit zero

I am the world’s worst predictor of Tesla’s stock price

yes

Spiegel said he still considers Tesla to be “the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market” for several reasons: No moat, a balance sheet that will return to losing money this year and flattening revenue growth, to name a few.

He predicted that, most of all, a “huge onslaught of competition” will ultimately be the undoing of Tesla and its market capitalization, which is inexplicably larger than Ford F, -0.14% , GM GM, -0.66% and Fiat Chrysler FCAU, -3.54% combined.

 

[Cupidchild]

So when Tesla announced March deliveries, conventional wisdom here on TMC was that they'd be pushing out maybe a few dozen units at the end of the quarter, as part of a "Delivery event", like they did it with the Model 3 back in 2017 or the MIC Model 3 in December in China. I.e. enough units to get the ball rolling, but not in meaningful volumes.
.

Tesla should have "Delivery Event" right? I didn't see anything announced yet. Will first 50 or so go to employees first and then mass rollout out few weeks or days after that?

 

[Cupidchild]

Added more tsla +100 shrs on Friday @ $633.55

Great buy, when there is fear on the street. I got some at 637. I wished I had more $ to buy.
Is this just for a swing trade or are you thinking of holding for longer term 6 months+?
Just wanted to get your take on your investment strategy for this purchase.
thx

 

[Maitri982]

As far as I know, he has never said the Air Force should use drones instead of pilots, he said they will use drones instead of pilots. Big difference.

Elon is what people in history called a "seer". He doesn't make these predictions with magic or divinity. His brain is such a sponge and functions in such a way that he can load everything he knows about the world and run the simulation multiple times with different assumptions. If they all basically end up with drones instead of pilots then he says that's how it will be.

The only way a pilot can remotely pilot a jet fighter in real time combat missions is with fast, low latency network connections. Starlink. Watch for deal with Air Force and Starlink for big $$$$ if they buy into the story. Mars funding secured...

 

[mongo]

Lol Spiegel
After ‘refreshing’ month, Tesla bear predicts ‘biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market’ will hit zero

He's calling a $17.23 SP rise EOM to EOM refreshing? Isn't he short on TSLA?
I suppose losing less than usual is nice?

 

[gerebgraus]

So when Tesla announced March deliveries, conventional wisdom here on TMC was that they'd be pushing out maybe a few dozen units at the end of the quarter, as part of a "Delivery event", like they did it with the Model 3 back in 2017 or the MIC Model 3 in December in China. I.e. enough units to get the ball rolling, but not in meaningful volumes.

But they seem to have a different plan for the Model Y: these unit counts are a lot higher than just early deliveries, which means that Model Y deliveries could already make a meaningful contribution to the Q1 results, and maybe even generate some margins, above break-even?

This could also explain why they expanded invitations beyond Performance versions, if they have some real production volume to work with they'd want as many deliveries in the final two weeks of March, as close to the factory as possible.

This clearly seem to be the case. They have announced start in production in January. It seems they start deliveries when they have succeeded in mass production. I assume that the Model 3 +Y production is limited by Panasonic's cell production in Reno. Based on Panasonic's info their cell production should be slightly higher this quarter than last. I also assume that Model 3 demand is somewhat lower due to seasonal subsidy changes (but plus demand due to our volunteer advertizing.) To combine that with the fact that they have not decreased the price of Model 3 I suspect that the Model Y production uses a lot of battery packs i.e. Model Y has alrady reached probably at least 1-2K/week production.

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Great buy, when there is fear on the street. I got some at 637. I wished I had more $ to buy.
Is this just for a swing trade or are you thinking of holding for longer term 6 months+?
Just wanted to get your take on your investment strategy for this purchase.
thx

Well played on your @ 637 buy.
My buy @ 633 is a 1-2 week swing trade. Waiting for 50-70 point pop.
I will use the gain to average down the 200 shrs I bought @ 676 last Thursday.

OTOH, I may hold and sell b4 Q1 ER. tsla has a habit of running right up to ER day (earnings play).

 

[sparcs]

Tesla should have "Delivery Event" right? I didn't see anything announced yet. Will first 50 or so go to employees first and then mass rollout out few weeks or days after that?

I'm guessing something similar to last quarter where Elon and his mom showed up for end of quarter deliveries to customers.

 

[dc_h]

Well, at some point there will be a big jump. There will be the “every Y sold is a 3 not sold” narrative. Keenly awaiting the Q1 delivery report.

The narrative will be difficult to quash, because until Tesla has spare battery production capacity, years away, a Y does steal the pack from a 3. (The Q mob will allege it stole the buyer - need a way to prove that false).

Yes, there’s a bonus $4k margin on the Y. That’s a nice consolation, but even better will be to have all lines maxed. Panasonic have added cell lines and sped up lines, but it hasn’t been fast enough for Tesla.

The margin bonus should be more then 4000. All Y’s are FSD and LR AWD. ASP and margins should be great. No huge slow ramp killing margins for 2 or 3 quarters. 10,000 new MICs and 5000 new Fremont Y’s could be an added 500 million and 300 million to revenue. That allows a lot of in transit and restock of display inventory while keeping revenue close to or above Q4.

 

[ZachF]

Over seven hundo in premarket

 

[Nocturnal]

Lol Spiegel
After ‘refreshing’ month, Tesla bear predicts ‘biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market’ will hit zero

Ah yes, one of the few "fund managers" brave enough to call a US congresswoman a "C&nt" on social media. Quality. If his clients ever get internet access he's done.