Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

$6m allows me to live well. If it gets to $10,000 then $20m will be great. If it gets to Cathie's $22,000 then $44m will give me a little security in later life

Better be careful! You develop a taste for living la vida loca, you'll end up working 'til you're 75 like @jbcarioca

Congrats, well done! (retired at 46...)

Cheers!

 

[adiggs]

I am in Spain and recently I was invited to the Private Bank side of Banco Santander. They say they do this all the time, and in the form of a credit line up to 80% of the value of share holdings.

I have to caveat that the advisor I spoke to told me that the interest rate would be 1%, but I don't have any actual proof yet! I will report back once I have the amounts confirmed. I am waiting for an appointment to talk about this, but the team is based in Madrid that is in coronavirus lock-down

Anyway, worth you guys with mortgages and large share holders to investigate with your banks. For example, this how many of the billionaires (including Elon) finance their personal affairs

Sure isn't Fidelity - their listed rate for a $1M margin loan is 5%.

I sure like the sound of the idea though - I've been really happy with Fidelity, but if there's that good of a rate available elsewhere, I could see "refinancing". Amazingly, that rate would be an increase (small) on my car loan (.99 to 1.00).

 

[humbaba]

I agree that shorts have a history of selling low and buying high. But this is a vastly different time than the dip in 2019. Where we differ is in where that low point will be. It's my contention that TSLA will not go under $400 and even under $500 would be extremely unlikely. It could happen with a perfect Coronavirus storm but that's not what I'm seeing as likely.

Predicting the future is a very sketchy endeavor but I'm out on a limb guessing the bottom is around $575-$585 (assuming this Coronavirus scare has one more major leg down, which looks somewhat likely to me at this point). I think at that point buyers will outnumber sellers, Coronavirus and all.

Ah. I never said it would get that low -- I'm well aware of my inability to predict price points so I don't try to. You'd said no investor would sell that low -- and I didn't disagree there, but pointed out that "vested interests" would sell that low. Maybe I should've been clearer that I was referring to short sellers, and if they somehow had the opportunity to sell that low.

 

[KarenRei]

I assume that such loans can be margin called.

 

[Nocturnal]

Think Tesla's stock is getting hit hard? The other manufacturers are getting hit too.

I keep being amazed at how much of a free-fall Daimler is in - down 2½ times what they were worth in 2017 (2nd bar in series), or -33% per year. And TSLA is still up 3½ times what they were worth last year.
View attachment 520286

Just got the 52W low alert about Ford.

 

[thait84]

I had a buy set for $608 that didn’t go off...grrrr....

I've been selling puts in the 5XX range expiring this week. Volatility was super high yesterday so I made a lot from premiums. I don't care if the price of the put goes up (it hasn't) because I would gladly pick up 100's of more shares in the 5XX range.

The risk is that if Tesla suddenly starts shooting up I'll lose out on any of those gains, but I'll keep doing this until I get a clearer signal.

 

[Fact Checking]

What I'd love to see announced - and which could indeed be announced at any point - is an emergency meeting of the G20 or G7+China with the goal of establishing a unified global response to simultaneously hinder the spread and impacts of the disease while minimizing economic disruption (with repeated emphasis on the latter). Making it clear that the plan is things like regulations on sanitation at businesses and schools, no large gatherings in heavily affected areas, only targeted use of quarantines, etc - and not "everybody stays home for 2020, last one out of the global economy shuts off the lights".

The market has not been impressed with traditional stimulus measures, facing up against the uncertainty of the impacts of the disease. It wants to see global leadership making clear that the global economy will continue largely as normal.

I'm afraid that with the current Trump administration pretending that everything is fine, I cannot see a G7 response, unless you meant a G6 response.

This is a top health official in the Trump administration, earlier today:

HHS secretary unsure of how many Americans have been tested for virus

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said early Tuesday that U.S. health officials do not know how many Americans have been tested for coronavirus.

Azar said during an interview on CNN’s “New Day” that some tests have been conducted by private labs and hospitals.

“We don’t know exactly how many because hundreds of thousands of our tests have gone out to private labs and hospitals that currently do not report in to CDC [the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]," Azar said.
​

Their response:

"We’re working with the CDC and those partners to get an IT reporting system up and running, hopefully this week, where we would be able to get that data, to keep track of how many we’re testing."​

Words fail me ...

 

[thait84]

Just got the 52W low alert about Ford.

You'll get an alert every day!

 

[DrMazeppa]

The market has not been impressed with traditional stimulus measures, facing up against the uncertainty of the impacts of the disease. It wants to see global leadership making clear that the global economy will continue largely as normal.

OK, I better sell all my shares then...

 

[Zero CO2]

Wish that was true.

Biogen is on lockdown in Boston, RDU and one other location. This is a byproduct of a conference in Boston whereby someone brought the disease ( California based employee? ) and therefore 23 of 135 are known to date to have tested positive.

One of the employees got sick in the 1st but then proceeded to work in RDU from 2-5 and then flew back to Indiana while pretty sick.

Don’t know Biogen’s “work pressure” but clearly this employee should have stayed away. This ties to Karen’s worry that US employees will go to work while sick (my older son is a scientist and they also have “work pressure” to come in despite being sick).

Senior Mgt/HR have their head in the sand in this one.

Also, a couple of British citizens are “locked down” in Vietnam due to getting virus form someone who was on the flight (two rows ahead) and just had travelled from Milan.

Conclusion: still a risk to fly.

i never said flying was not a risk ... and I respectfully disagree .. I have never seen people more conscious of there hygiene and behavior on a plane ... not to mention a lot of empty seats

 

[CyberDutchie]

I assume that such loans can be margin called.

Aha, the catch! Also, likely not a fixed 1% interest, so you’re at the mercy of the bank. I had an interest rate of 3% on margin with E*Trade when I started buying on margin a few years ago. As my margin increased, they raised it to 9%, and I was caught in a messy situation last year around this time when TSLA headed south. Luckily I recovered and am now margin free.

 

[Dr. J]

Words fail me ...

Suggestion: "Cranial-rectal inversion"

 

[vikings123]

I agree that shorts have a history of selling low and buying high. But this is a vastly different time than the dip in 2019. Where we differ is in where that low point will be. It's my contention that TSLA will not go under $400 and even under $500 would be extremely unlikely. It could happen with a perfect Coronavirus storm but that's not what I'm seeing as likely.

Predicting the future is a very sketchy endeavor but I'm out on a limb guessing the bottom is around $575-$585 (assuming this Coronavirus scare has one more major leg down, which looks somewhat likely to me at this point). I think at that point buyers will outnumber sellers, Coronavirus and all.

Honestly the next leg down could happen by the end of day. The algobots were not programmed to handle a virus event

 

[Highway2Heel]

Aha, the catch! Also, likely not a fixed 1% interest, so you’re at the mercy of the bank. I had an interest rate of 3% on margin with E*Trade when I started buying on margin a few years ago. As my margin increased, they raised it to 9%, and I was caught in a messy situation last year around this time when TSLA headed south. Luckily I recovered and am now margin free.

I’m no expert but I’ve seen rate opportunities provided to me that were a function of account balance and the 30-day LIBOR rate (which currently sits somewhere around 1.4%). Your rate would be based on a spread that goes down as your holdings go up. For instance, at $1M to $2.5M the rate is 3% on top of the LIBOR rate, or 4.40%. For $2.5M to $5M it’s a 2.75% spread (i.e., 4.15%), etc...

 

[Prunesquallor]

Today I have reached my target of 2,000 Tesla shares!

I bought roughly 1,500 at an average price of $300 and the other 500 I have bought all the way up to $900 and then all the way back down again to $600 at an average price of $500.

I am stopping at 2,000 and holding long term. This is a good amount for the two following reasons:
1. My bank says they will give me a loan at 1% interest on 80% of the value of the TSLA shares to buy a house if I wish. Even at current prices, this gives me an "almost free" $1m loan to do so and is cheaper than getting a mortgage
2. The main reason. I expect TSLA to be at least $3,000 in 5 years time. $6m allows me to live well. If it gets to $10,000 then $20m will be great. If it gets to Cathie's $22,000 then $44m will give me a little security in later life

It's been an incredible ride, but now I am done!

“I'm talking about liquid. Rich enough to have your own jet. Rich enough not to waste time. Fifty, a hundred million dollars buddy. A player, or nothing.”
- Gordon Gekko

Seriously, congrats.

 

[DrMazeppa]

Honestly the next leg down could happen by the end of day. The algobots were not programmed to handle a virus event

We have some idea about the rate of diffusion now. So, assuming the US and places like UK or Germany follow the Italian pattern, then sometimes next week would be a good candidate as cases go up there. At the same time, cases in Italy should go down. The new consensus could be that we know how it is going to work out. Buying starts again.
I even have the feeling the markets know this as well, and they will play along...

This is my plan. Happy coincidence, this would imply I would be back in fully before P&D report, and MTA (Magic Tesla April).

Edit: the only element I am not really sure about is the US response and how lucky/effective they will be...

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR SUGGESTION:

Once again - we consider it supremely unwise to reveal on an open forum such as this one how many shares one purchases, sells or holds.

Advice.

 

[jbcarioca]

Better be careful! You develop a taste for living la vida loca, you'll end up working 'til you're 75 like @jbcarioca

Congrats, well done! (retired at 46...)

Cheers!

The HondaJet is an unusually good product. It's also fun to fly. Just remember that 75 is the new 40.
Anyway I'm younger than all three US Presidential candidates. OK, that is NOT an endorsement of geriatrics in office.

 

[MountainRatMat]

Maybe somebody can help me with something I have been trying to figure out.

I've been tracking existing inventory for my local market(Minneapolis). As of now I see 12 model 3s, 10 Model Ss and 4 Model Xs. I also looked at some other markets(NJ/NY area) and see decent model 3 inventory there too. When you try to do a custom model 3 order on the website the expected delivery time is however 2-3 weeks. Three questions:

1. Why wouldn't Tesla try to match someone with an inventory car during the order placing process? Or maybe they do that after the order is placed but you would potentially get more buyers if you added this feature online.
2. I can understand the inventory for the S and X but definitely wondering if the demand for the model 3 is a problem this quarter?
3. Is there a website that tracks existing inventory trends for Tesla?

When I do a custom order for a Model 3 it shows 8-12 weeks and I can confirm that I have a friend that ordered on 1/22/2020 (in my referrals) and has still not taken delivery. That lines up with the 8-12 week delivery time. I'm in California.

 

[jerry33]

Honestly the next leg down could happen by the end of day. The algobots were not programmed to handle a virus event

Where are the hackers when you need them?