Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

@Artful Dodger Have you tweeted this to Elon or maybe some of the more pro Tesla accounts like Third Row, Rob Maurer, etc.? Heck maybe even tweet it to Cathie Woods, Ross Gerber, etc.. I'm sure these folks are aware this is going on, but you never know.

Lol, this may be news to some of us, but real Investment Professionals have known about these abuses literally since 2007. Ask @Hock1 for his comments, he's lived it.

So to answer your other questions:

1. No, I don't need to tweet Elon; he subscribes to my feed
2. Lol, 3rd Row'ers are even more naive than I am!
3. Rob Mauer is WAY too fair and balanced to ever make a hard call
4. Ross Gerber is pretty much an empty suit IMHO

I'm providing this to members of the TMC Investors round table to help us avoid the traps. It pains me to see good men like @Curt Renz get rousted off his nest egg when it has so much growth coming in the next 5 years. Market Makers are stealing from his nest. Not that Curt's done poorly; I just feel he deserves more of the future gains.

TL;dr Tesla will do fine: we talk about the trials and tribulations of TSLA here as a proxy, but the 2 are separate. Bankrupcy is off the table; Shortzes can #sand.

Cheers!

 

[dl003]

Tesla will do fine even if Trump is elected president until 2040. Government has nothing to do with it. Tesla will win people with innovation

Agree. Im locked and loaded for Q1 and every Q onwards. Just trying to get some perspective on short term risks, as I am frequently in and out of margin. In fact, I deleveraged today and said wow that feels so much better. And whats the next thing I did? Hope it dipped below 500 so I can get back in on margin AGAIN. I cant help it.

 

[adiggs]

Fair enough points. And I truly understand people who have to lighten up a bit because they are overleveraged, or people who are at an age where they need to lock in their money, that's totally understandable. I just take issue with the loud cheerleaders during the boom and the first to jump ship during a downturn.

For me personally, I'm holding my TSLA shares - up to $9xx, from down at the $1xx, and everything in between (and going back to the $xx when I started).

That being said, this current situation is also the first time since 2012 when I've considered selling the shares temporarily. My reasoning is that this isn't your "typical" bear market - there's an exogenous non-financial event that is having financial consequences. In fact, I HAVE moved the rest of my portfolio into cash until I see that exogenous non-financial event being managed well, at which point I'll return to the market, wherever the market is then.

Were I to sell out of my TSLA position, it'd be the same thing.

If we don't get the exogenous event under control soon, then as a bonus, I think I'll get a really outstanding price for adding to my TSLA shares.

 

[ninpb]

Take that back right now.

AP and safety systems will be so good at 4th term it will stop you from driving into a wall at full speed.

 

[Maitri982]

Intel (INTC) is up 19.5%
Microsoft (MSFT) up 14.2%
Apple (AAPL) up 12.0%

tesla is largely dependent on a single factory...so their risk profile during a time like this is higher. Let’s hope corona doesn’t get inside that place.

still haven’t unloaded a single share but was right about this drop. Let’s hope it’s short lived and then onward to 1k.

 

[qphan79]

This idea just hit me. There is a notion floating around that Tesla can slow down expansion to cope with a recession. I think opposite. If Trump is done in term of reelection chance and Sanders/Biden gets elected, we will see a massive move toward electrification and the last think Tesla wants is a lack of production capacity, irrespective of short term demands.

I’m thinking that Tesla will pull demand levers (free supercharging on Model 3, lower prices, increased referral rewards, etc.) in order to maintain sales growth. The great thing about selling at high margins is that they can afford to reduce margins if necessary. The improvements in manufacturing processes made in designing the Model Y will also further cushion them in terms of margin!

 

[tinm]

Guys, I can't tell... any idea if this 'Lora Kolodny' is biased against a specific company or not?

View attachment 521259

CNBC’s headquarters are in Englewood Cliffs, NJ. Multiple patients in that city have tested positive to Covid-19, and hundreds more have in the surrounding area. If you work for CNBC or NBC Universal and have come down with the virus or just have information on how the company is treating its ernployees, hmu @tinm

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m thinking that Tesla will pull demand levers (free supercharging on Model 3, lower prices, increased referral rewards, etc.) in order to maintain sales growth. The great thing about selling at high margins is that they can afford to reduce margins if necessary. The improvements in manufacturing processes made in designing the Model Y will also further cushion them in terms of margin!

Coming up on mid-March this weekend, and still nary a peep out of Tesla regarding tweaking those typical EOQ demand levers.

I conclude sales are at least matching expectations. Model Y news this weekend should be fun to watch. Please post any Youtube vidz you find.

Cheers!

 

[mact3333]

the down forces are very strong...even stronger than I thought...we are at a super critical time right now...we dont have much time to correct this thing imho...we will gap down tomorrow at the open but intraday if we dont get a big reversal and SPX closes below 2420-2430-ish level tomorrow, the 12 year bull run is over and its time to adjust positions and strategies accordingly...I was hoping(genuinely thought it would) that Naz 7300 would hold but that is looking shaky at best now but Im giving this another day for the sake of hope, but imho, tomorrow will be deciding factor for me...if tomorrow is ugly and closes weak then i am afraid SPX 1300-1700 is the most likely target.......this will obvious have repercussions for TSLA too as nobody will be immune.

Ok we are still on track now....we got the reversal I was looking for with a big hammer candle...a big hammer candle is absolutely needed for a true reversal...intraday low was approx 7200 on Naz rather than 7300 I was expecting but that's ok as its hard to catch the exact bottom when mkt's swinging 10% a day. and so volatile...we closed the week above this level that's what most important to me...we touched the IT low target and if we can hold and start rising next week, the longterm bull is still intact(barely)....watch Naz 8300-8400 level cause this is the area I would expect hard rejection if this is only a dead cat bounce.

I am very glad the mkts didn't accept prices well below Naz 7300 for the week cause that would mean society would changes we know it..a modest recession is a given but lets just hope that's all we have to deal with in the future.

There will still be big layoffs and companies failing over the next 2-3 months, but hopefully it won't be as bad as it would have been if we enter a longterm bear.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Fri, Mar 13, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $540.56
Volume: 22,418,072
Traded: $12,118,298,975.58 ($12.12 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.92%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "Record Intraday Plunge > 17% of SP"

 

[Hock1]

Vote.

Vote for whom?. I haven't heard anything from any candidate that would lead one to believe that they understand the problems with the market and are committed to do something about it. Maybe I've missed something. /s

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Man, you gotta love this guy. Right or wrong, he tells it like HE sees it. I'm willing to bet time will prove him right.

Elon Musk Told Workers They're More Likely To Die In A Car Crash Than From Coronavirus

 

[Artful Dodger]

Vote for whom?. I haven't heard anything from any candidate that would lead one to believe that they understand the problems with the market and are committed to do something about it. Maybe I've missed something. /s

Yeah wrong forum, but I'll just say E.W. (she all done now).

 

[1101011]

Coming up on mid-March this weekend, and still nary a peep out of Tesla regarding tweaking those typical EOQ demand levers.

I conclude sales are at least matching expectations. Model Y news this weekend should be fun to watch. Please post any Youtube vidz you find.

Cheers!

Doing my part: replacing my 2014 S with a new Model S. No VIN assigned yet, but anticipate delivery this Qtr.

 

[SteveG3]

Vote for whom?. I haven't heard anything from any candidate that would lead one to believe that they understand the problems with the market and are committed to do something about it. Maybe I've missed something. /s

Teddy Roosevelt?

“Political parties exist to secure responsible government and to execute the will of the people. From these great tasks both of the old parties have turned aside. Instead of instruments to promote the general welfare they have become the tools of corrupt interests, which use them impartially to serve their selfish purposes. Behind the ostensible government sits enthroned an invisible government owing no allegiance and acknowledging no responsibility to the people. To destroy this invisible government, to befoul the unholy alliance between corrupt business and corrupt politics, is the first task of the statesmanship of the day.”


(as an equal poke at both parties from over 100 years ago, please don’t take this as a, let’s say, competitive statement re anybody’s contemporary political leanings. I apologize to any here who may see it that way).

 

[woof]

Lol, this may be news to some of us, but real Investment Professionals have known about these abuses literally since 2007.

One should then consider changing tactics. If you can't beat 'em (and it appears, sans a Warren administration, you can't), then...join 'em. No, not in the manipulation, but you know what they are going to do. Seems a reasonable short term strategy is to go along for the ride.

Or, just hold, and then it doesn't matter what happens in the short term.

 

[MP3Mike]

Coming up on mid-March this weekend, and still nary a peep out of Tesla regarding tweaking those typical EOQ demand levers.

I conclude sales are at least matching expectations. Model Y news this weekend should be fun to watch. Please post any Youtube vidz you find.

And on top of no EOQ demand levers being pulled we have rumor that an email has been sent out asking for employees to volunteer to work over-time to help deliver cars because they expect a very busy end of quarter.

 

[guidooo]

but I'm a bit disappointed that some of our long time so called strong bulls are helping out. For all of us here who held strong through the drop to 180, it was really disappointing to see people abandon ship, especially when the company is fundamentally doing so much better than a year ago.

I'm not disappointed; think I understand and there is a huge difference between the drop(s) to 180 and today.

The drops to sub 200 were specific related to Tesla and Tesla as a company being under siege by not well intending entities. It was not related to the economies it was operating in. Besides that mischief still going on, we now also witness a potential and (hopefully partial and tiny) collapse in the house of cards that our debt based economy sometimes seems. To what extent (and what sectors) that contraction will be can be open to discussion. Think nobody knows and speculation regarding COVID-19 varies from potential apocalypse to it will blow over tomorrow. Tesla might be well positioned and in very good shape today; but TSLA can only take off to greater heights when people are willing and able to buy the shares. Also if the real economy goes into big dip, Tesla must do a lot more effort to extract an equal amount of dollars from that dipped economy.

I think Tesla will do well and do everything it can to adhere to it's mission in an agile way; TSLA does what TSLA does and is unpredictable to me. We don't know where the floor is. Some periods in the 2008-2009 time frame: Everything lost dollar value, while if i'm not mistaken the money printing machine was fully operational to soften the blow.

For the record, I didn't sell any TSLA in 2020. Nor do i intend to do short term, but you never now. (Did some selling in 2019 in the 32X range because i needed the liquidity). Everyone has their own risk tolerance and goals and i cann't say it is wise to stay in this market. Also i cann't say TSLA won't be in the 20000 dollar range in 202X. I think they are, relative to other companies, well positioned for a target like that.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

@Artful Dodger Have you tweeted this to Elon or maybe some of the more pro Tesla accounts like Third Row, Rob Maurer, etc.? Heck maybe even tweet it to Cathie Woods, Ross Gerber, etc.. I'm sure these folks are aware this is going on, but you never know.

Today absolutely looks like the share price was highly manipulated, but I'm a bit disappointed that some of our long time so called strong bulls are helping out. For all of us here who held strong through the drop to 180, it was really disappointing to see people abandon ship, especially when the company is fundamentally doing so much better than a year ago. In fact, I would have had more respect if you had bailed at $180, because there truly was a risk that Tesla may not make it out of that.

Just a few weeks ago when the share price was flying high, we had a lot of these same people in here saying that they would never sell, they believe in the mission, no one can take this again from us again, etc. etc. Everyone has their own reasons, but if you are selling because you just want to get back in cheaper, then don't pretend to believe in the mission, you're just an opportunist who sees money as more important than principles. That's perfectly fine, but don't pretend to be otherwise.

I'll probably get a lot of hate for my diatribe above, because I'm directing what I wrote above at a lot of long time respected members, but the last few days has disillusioned me towards people who I respected and followed the last few years.

It's easy to talk tough when things are going well, but a true reflection of one's makeup is what one does when things are going rough.

End of rant.

You know what's hilarious? I haven't sold a single share during this current ongoing black swan event. Not one. So much for all the "true believers" being the ones who will hold until doomsday. Of course I was one of the people here talking about hedging while others were burying their heads in the sand and getting angry and banishing the black swan event of our lifetimes to a separate thread because it offended their delicate sensibilities.

Maybe if some posters had spent less time playing private investigator and trying to dig up dirt about posters they disagreed with in their private profiles and more time watching the market and the developing black swan event which had been flashing bright red warning indicators since literally January they would have been more prepared for this. Who knows.

I'm not planning on selling any shares no matter how low TSLA goes, because I hatched my half-baked hedging plan and actioned it in time before the crash. I only wish now that I had hedged with puts against my TSLA holdings instead of just straight SPY puts because I would be retired already. I will settle for my portfolio's net value today having maintained around 90% of it's value when TSLA hit that $946 ATH though, overall I feel like I have survived the black swan event reasonably well thus far (who knows what happens tomorrow though!) even though I haven't struck it rich like it was The Big Short or something.

 

[powertoold]

The drops to sub 200 were specific related to Tesla and Tesla as a company being under siege by not well intending entities. It was not related to the economies it was operating in. Besides that mischief still going on, we now also witness a potential and (hopefully partial and tiny) collapse in the house of cards that our debt based economy sometimes seems.

I disagree with this. Elon has said himself that Tesla was on the verge of bankruptcy during the difficult Model 3 ramp, and a lot of us were in a bad and uncertain position at the time. Many can say that we were foolish to hold on the way down from 300... We are foolish to hold on still at this point in the uncertain coronavirus future, but as longs, if we all just sell at the smell of uncertainty, the stock will be zero lol.

I remember during the 180 drop, even Gali, super bull, believed that Tesla had fallen off the demand cliff....