Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Yonki]

First, I want to thank all the mods, current, retired, and semi-retired for doing an overall excellent yet largely thankless job trying to herd us cats for years on end. You guys cared enough to volunteer, make a lot of tough calls, and put in an s-ton of hours over the years. I’m not quite as thankful towards whichever mod came down so hard/rudely on @KarenRei that she decided to leave - but god knows I myself have had bad days and consequently overreacted too many times to count, so I can even understand how that could happen with ultimately good intentions.

Second, what to do now? I’m not giving up on TMC though it’s only taken a few days for me to see how sorely I miss @KarenRei and @FactChecking. I can get at least an occasional KR fix at @enn_nafnlaus on Twitter...but does anyone know if FC is has found another outlet?

I still hope they return but I’m not holding my breath.

 

[ktrivedi70]

A plea to the mods. I'm totally ignorant of what goes on in world of moderating forums, but I suspect it's a difficult, thankless task. But as it pertains to Tesla and TSLA,,,

- The world has gone a little nuts. (Yes, I'm aware that's a gross understatement)
- We all know the effects this has had on TSLA
- People like KarenRei and FactChecking have provided calm, clear, reasoned discourse.
- This forum is a godsend to people like me, to help cut through all the garbage out there
- The amount of garbage is going to increase, some due to general noise, and some from trolls/TSLAQ. Those bastards won't stop. They feed on these times.

In light of that, I respectfully ask that this rift be settled, and settled quickly. We need each other, now more so than ever. Please reach out to the two of them, and let's put this behind us and get back to what's really important-- to gain a better understanding of the company most likely to guide this planet to a better future. That's way more important than any of us. Thank you for reading, and for being mods.

 

[Vines]

Its a shame, but the mods have a fine line to walk. I understand we all have bosses who tell us what to do.

Its a shame when core members of our community no longer choose, or no longer are allowed to post here in the Investment Forum.

Either way its a loss to the community. Hopefully the rift can be repaired.

 

[TNEVol]

@jhm a minor correction lest it be repeated. EM did not say "make" either masks or ventilators this week. He said "will have". Later he discussed collaboration with Medtronics on manufacturing vents and said it would be several weeks.

 

[SOULPEDL]

TBH in this market, pretty much any buying or selling is just gambling. I'm sitting tight. Nobody can know where we go from here, so I'm not even checking my portfolio for the next few weeks.

Really? Not even for the April SP run up on anticipated deliveries? I think it's already happening as TSLA has been doing well over macros on many ocassions this past month. It's acting like a horse at the gate, ready to catch the rabbit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

CDC* produces new STEMS diagnostic tool:

* Confrontational Disenfranchised Consortium

 

[goinfraftw]

Guy Benson on Twitter

 

[StealthP3D]

That is a true, but U.S. demand for Model 3 dropped as well. This is why there were 2 price cuts in 2019Q1 for Model 3.

I mean, this is literally basic Economics 101 supply and demand curves. You suddenly raise prices (effectively through tax credit drop) and demand will drop. Optimal supply to U. S. market should then drop, as it did.

Q1 is always the lowest demand for vehicles in the US (and it holds true across all brands). My understanding is that Tesla screwed up and didn't ship enough M3's overseas soon enough in the quarter (to deliver in Q1) so they had an excess in the US. Rather than shipping them overseas for sale in Q2 or selling them in the US in Q2, they lowered prices to clear all inventory.

In case you haven't noticed, even though production has increased dramatically, they have only raised prices and removed features since then. And they are selling every one they can make. Also, until Q1 2019, all Model 3's were being sold in North America at a rate higher than the steady-state demand while they filled back-logged demand. In other words, the Q1 price cuts were due to a screw-up that left excessive cars in the US as Tesla was transitioning to International sales. So it wasn't a "drop in the steady-state demand", it was normal seasonal variations combined with filling the backlog of orders that existed in North America since the Model 3 was introduced.

You can spin it your way but only people who are are not familiar with the facts on the ground will buy into it.

 

[InDaClub]

Ok you guys put your head in the sand and pretend everything is rosy.

I'll leave you with this

"Dr. Neil M. Ferguson, a British epidemiologist who is regarded as one of the best disease modelers in the world, produced a sophisticated model with a worst case of 2.2 million deaths in the United States.


I asked Ferguson for his best case. “About 1.1 million deaths,” he said."

Opinion | The Best-Case Outcome for the Coronavirus, and the Worst

Ok Debbie Downer, I'll leave you with this...

Eric Idle - "Always Look On The Bright Side Of Life" - STEREO HQ

 

[dgodfrey]

Dare I say, This concludes today's MMD, we now return to our regular programming.

 

[ZeApelido]

Q1 is always the lowest demand for vehicles in the US (and it holds true across all brands). My understanding is that Tesla screwed up and didn't ship enough M3's overseas soon enough in the quarter (to deliver in Q1) so they had an excess in the US. Rather than shipping them overseas for sale in Q2 or selling them in the US in Q2, they lowered prices to clear all inventory.

In case you haven't noticed, even though production has increased dramatically, they have only raised prices and removed features since then. And they are selling every one they can make. Also, until Q1 2019, all Model 3's were being sold in North America at a rate higher than the steady-state demand while they filled back-logged demand. In other words, the Q1 price cuts were due to a screw-up that left excessive cars in the US as Tesla was transitioning to International sales. So it wasn't a "drop in the steady-state demand", it was normal seasonal variations combined with filling the backlog of orders that existed in North America since the Model 3 was introduced.

You can spin it your way but only people who are are not familiar with the facts on the ground will buy into it.

This was not the story told by bulls at the time. The story was that there wouldn't be any effect on even short term demand, and that was simply wrong.

Now here we are we a potential massive recession, potentially many less people with excess cash left for the "Tesla stretch". Now are you telling me in the short term (this calendar year) that is not going to have any effect on how much people are willing to spend on a Tesla?

To assume it won't have an effect is, yet again, egregious.

 

[dl003]

This was not the story told by bulls at the time. The story was that there wouldn't be any effect on even short term demand, and that was simply wrong.

Now here we are we a potential massive recession, potentially many less people with excess cash left for the "Tesla stretch". Now are you telling me in the short term (this calendar year) that is not going to have any effect on how much people are willing to spend on a Tesla?

To assume it won't have an effect is, yet again, egregious.

Were you not here when SP dropped from $900 to $420? That's not big enough an *effect* for you? What are you going to do at this price? Short?

 

[ZeApelido]

Were you not here when SP dropped from $900 to $420? That's not big enough an *effect* for you? What are you going to do at this price? Short?

When did I say I think the stock price will drop further from here?

 

[ZeApelido]

CDC* produces new STEMS diagnostic tool:

View attachment 524681

* Confrontational Disenfranchised Consortium

You can also add people who think Tesla product demand is unaffected by a massive recession.

 

[ZeApelido]

I mean, Tesla demand could temporarily drop and battery / FSD / product expansion news could all cause price to go up while margins are temporarily lower.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So my gameplan for today after seeing how markets opened was that I thought the markets would sell off as we get closer and closer to the 1 pm ET Congress vote, which is happening. I expect a spike downwards from here in the 30 mins before that vote, maybe down 8-10%. Essentially Wall St trying to frighten congress into voting for the bill, whatever it is. I then was going to decide if I wanted to trade off of that, that either congress does come to terms on deal at 1 pm et or before the markets open tomorrow.....and the macro's will rebound quite a bit....................but Tesla is screwing up this strategy!

Come on Tesla, can you go down with the markets like you did one week ago so we here can take advantage of what's going to happen today??????

 

[Electroman]

What?? Even @Fact Checking left? sigh..

 

[Fishy Fish]

So my gameplan for today after seeing how markets opened was that I thought the markets would sell off as we get closer and closer to the 1 pm ET Congress vote, which is happening. I expect a spike downwards from here in the 30 mins before that vote, maybe down 8-10%. Essentially Wall St trying to frighten congress into voting for the bill, whatever it is. I then was going to decide if I wanted to trade off of that, that either congress does come to terms on deal at 1 pm et or before the markets open tomorrow.....and the macro's will rebound quite a bit....................but Tesla is screwing up this strategy!

Come on Tesla, can you go down with the markets like you did one week ago so we here can take advantage of what's going to happen today??????

Blame Elon for $420.69. Everyone wants them at that price it would seem.

 

[kyzhk]

You can also add people who think Tesla product demand is unaffected by a massive recession.

It's probably more nuanced and might just be due to use of terms.

I think the likely scenario would be like this:

True demand: A
Apparent demand: B
Production capacity: C

When A > C, you would only be able to observe a demand of B (and B = C in this case). It is possible for Tesla's apparent demand to not be affected and remains at B if the following condition holds: True demand A drops to A' but remains higher than C, therefore apparent demand remains at B (B=C, again).

Thats what is meant by production limited. Does a recession brings A below C? We don't know.

So some of you can be arguing that A is definitely dropping, while some of you are arguing that B remains at C. You guys are talking about different things here.

 

[EV forever]

So is Fremont open or closed? Any of the TESLAQ crowd counted the cars in the parking lot yet?