Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Creekstalker]

Your first post on a TSLA investors forum is to ask if you should bet $400,000 that the stock will go down 10% in the next week? Hmm, where is that Ignore button...

Well, this person said they are a long-time lurker so no doubt they have a good feel for the culture here.

 

[juanmedina]

90% of new option traders lose 90% of their wealth in the first two weeks. Buy and hold is the strategy that will bring the most gains over time.

unless you buy DIT options, right?

 

[woodisgood]

Interesting that of 50+ diverse tickers in my watchlist, TSLA is the only red. Next lowest gainer is +0.5%.

Honestly it's so bizarrely decoupled from the market right now it reeks of manipulation. You're telling me everyone is buying just about everything strongly EXCEPT for the multigenerational wealth-building machine that the majority of millennials adore?

 

[JusRelax]

Interesting that of 50+ diverse tickers in my watchlist, TSLA is the only red. Next lowest gainer is +0.5%.

I found that interesting as well. Is it the news of two WFH Tesla employees confirmed to have C-19? Tesla confirms two employees tested positive for COVID-19 - Electrek

If so, I really don't think that should make much of an impact at all. What else could it be?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Interesting that of 50+ diverse tickers in my watchlist, TSLA is the only red. Next lowest gainer is +0.5%.

The stock was definitely giving hints that it was going to show weakness today throughout the 2nd half of the trading day yesterday so I was predicting that we'd get a day like this today. In reality, the stock is negative about 5-6% since the macro's are up 5% today. Not sure if it's options related or if the market has decided the stock has run enough and now initiating short positions. But I expect it to under perform tomorrow as well and might underperform for the next week up P/D numbers.

 

[woodisgood]

I found that interesting as well. Is it the news of two WFH Tesla employees confirmed to have C-19? Tesla confirms two employees tested positive for COVID-19 - Electrek

If so, I really don't think that should make much of an impact at all. What else could it be?

Makes very little sense. I don't fully understand the mechanics of how the stimulus money translates into market activity, but it seems there is room in there to punish TSLA if that is the motivation of the "decision-makers." Seems odd since most clean energy/renewables/solar up bigly...

 

[woodisgood]

The stock was definitely giving hints that it was going to show weakness today throughout the 2nd half of the trading day yesterday so I was predicting that we'd get a day like this today. In reality, the stock is negative about 5-6% since the macro's are up 5% today. Not sure if it's options related or if the market has decided the stock has run enough and now initiating short positions. But I expect it to under perform tomorrow as well and might underperform for the next week up P/D numbers.

On a normal-ish day this explanation would suffice for me. Not today. Waiting to hear what @Artful Dodger thinks...

If options-related, there must be some really dangerous exposure for someone tomorrow.

 

[Nocturnal]

Everybody is really going to bother responding to a troll post? We must be bored. Unfortunately it's looking like Q1 results will be coming out at about the same time as max panic in the US, which will be in the next 1-2 weeks I think. Good buying opportunity. I can't figure out if I should sell my current options now and buy back then or hold.

 

[Fobble]

This is a luxury good that is built in Cali which is the hardest hit. Cannot see anything good until June

For the record, California is NOT the hardest hit, at least at the moment. See the latest chart below:

 

[mikevbf]

Ford, GM, and the rest are in deep trouble. Right now!

Are we sure the 900 plus page stimulus bill does not bail out GM and Ford?

 

[dl003]

Everybody is really going to bother responding to a troll post? We must be bored. Unfortunately it's looking like Q1 results will be coming out at about the same time as max panic in the US, which will be in the next 1-2 weeks I think. Good buying opportunity. I can't figure out if I should sell my current options now and buy back then or hold.

You can sell a 0403 540 C for $4,000. Why not just do that?

 

[StealthP3D]

Are we sure the 900 plus page stimulus bill does not bail out GM and Ford?

The stimulus bill can throw a life-jacket to Ford and GM but it cannot teach them to swim.

 

[Lessmog]

The stimulus bill can throw a life-jacket to Ford and GM but it cannot teach them to swim.

First, lead them to water ...

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I understand its high risk... but am I correct in my rationale that as long as SP is less than Strike Price - Option Price, I am in the money? I feel there is high likelihood this stock is going down in the next few weeks. Deliveries are going to be low and Q2 is also not promising... This is a luxury good that is built in Cali which is the hardest hit. Cannot see anything good until June

not correct. You've understood "in-the-money" (aka ITM) incorrectly, and have your math wrong for Put profitability as well. i'm going to do you a favor and point you to the more appropriate thread for options trading: Options trading strategy/advice

last warning, don't dabble in options until you understand it fully and can afford to lose it ALL. The first lesson you'll learn is that you really didn't understand it very well, because time-value of the option is your enemy.

 

[LYTRIDR]

The stimulus bill can throw a life-jacket to Ford and GM but it cannot teach them to swim.

Agreed. My understanding is that both GM and Ford have huge financing arms. If this is the case, the biggest benefit they will get is the ability of many of their customers to continue to pay the leases and monthly payments on existing debt. No doubt they'll get a large loan on good terms too, but their new sales volumes are sure to shrink dramatically. Ford pickup truck sales surely must tank. Corn is $3 per bushel which is well below the cost of production. Farmers are not going to be buying trucks.

Now I know a lot of city folk drive trucks too, but I can't imagine they'll be able to sell enough to break even only considering the truck lineup. The money they'll lose on the rest of their lines is going to be gut-wrenching.

 

[Lessmog]

I understand its high risk... but am I correct in my rationale that as long as SP is less than Strike Price - Option Price, I am in the money? I feel there is high likelihood this stock is going down in the next few weeks. Deliveries are going to be low and Q2 is also not promising... This is a luxury good that is built in Cali which is the hardest hit. Cannot see anything good until June

not correct. You've understood "in-the-money" (aka ITM) incorrectly, and have your math wrong for Put profitability as well. i'm going to do you a favor and point you to the more appropriate thread for options trading: Options trading strategy/advice

last warning, don't dabble in options until you understand it fully and can afford to lose it ALL. The first lesson you'll learn is that you really didn't understand it very well, because time-value of the option is your enemy.

As someone who also does not understand options, I do understand that with some kinds you ACTUALLY CAN LOSE IT ALL, NOT JUST THE MONEY FOR THE OPTION. The big risk is that there can be unlimited loss: total bank account, car, house ... literally everything you own. The reason why I do not.

If you do that with insufficient knowledge, you are a fool. Forgive the bluntness. It is well meant.

 

[Nocturnal]

You can sell a 0403 540 C for $4,000. Why not just do that?

Good point, I may.

 

[charlesgres]

Are we sure the 900 plus page stimulus bill does not bail out GM and Ford?

I would guess the market sees the stimulus as benefiting the OEM's essentially, allowing them to live with losses until they catch up with Tesla.. hence the downward pressure on Tesla SP..

 

[ckessel]

I've sold puts or calls (puts when I had cash, calls after I got assigned) the last few weeks to take advantage of the high volatility. Seemed reasonable, will probably continue to do so while volatility is so high. However, I have no idea what I want to do specifically next week. I'd think deliveries will have suffered seriously, so bad news. And COVID of course. But, they could still be profitable and/or beat expectations, so good news. Fremont is shut down, bad news. China is ramped up, good news. And so forth.

I have absolutely no idea if I want to be in or out. I have the stock now, I'm debating selling it. But, if I had cash, I'm sure I'd be debating buying it

I could hedge, buy both puts and calls, but the IV it'd be an expensive hedge...hence the reason I've been selling them.

I guess nothing really to say other than, to the person asking about options, this is probably an extremely risky time to be learning the ropes with options. Better to wait until the world settles down again.

 

[Cupidchild]

On a normal-ish day this explanation would suffice for me. Not today. Waiting to hear what @Artful Dodger thinks...

If options-related, there must be some really dangerous exposure for someone tomorrow.

There are multiple reasons
Technicals show hitting resistance at 550 (21 EMA) which entire world knows so short term traders also shorting TSLA at this point. (Note we also had 57% run up from the bottom. )
News wise: some negative FUD once again saying 2 ppl working for TSLA got CV. Its funny how no one tracks or mentions anything about any other companies employee but Tesla.