Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

On a normal-ish day this explanation would suffice for me. Not today. Waiting to hear what @Artful Dodger thinks...

Yep, it was shorting. FINRA reported short volume was ~ 62% of total volume, which places today's relative amount of shorting at the 82nd Percentile rank.

Notice what the 4 N.American Auto majors did today: (only F "Ford" was down today, while S&P downgraded their credit rating to "Junk")



Since we know Tesla is in the STRONGEST debt/assests position of all global automakers (AJ said so in his note), this means today is shortzes making a move.

Note also that TSLA volume was relatively low at 17M today vs 22M the last 2 days, so not many Longs selling today, just shortzes walking down the price trying to steer the herd. Further, Robintrack shows that retail holders reached an all-time high today at 202.8K with users accumulating during both the dips and run-ups since March 2, 2020:



The most recent NASDAQ Short Interest report showed that (as of March 13, 2020) shortzes continue in a "net cover" mode. IMHO, their tactic is frighten the herd with sudden, inexplicable plunges to try to convince them to cut'n'run while the shortzes buy back on the cheap. Won't work with me.

HODLing.

 

[Carl Raymond]

The next Autopilot update will stop for red lights and stop signs automatically.

Musk himself retweeted it:

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

I think he replied to it, light heartedly referencing a song. Not a retweet. But yes, that does seem like confirmation.

This time there can be no using users as beta testers. It has to be better than a human straight up. If it’s error prone, it could easily kill somebody who becomes comfortable with autopilot making the stop or go decision at lights.

 

[willow_hiller]

This time there can be no using users as beta testers. It has to be better than a human straight up. If it’s error prone, it could easily kill somebody who becomes comfortable with autopilot making the stop or go decision at lights.

If you watch the video carefully, it requires user input (accelerator pedal or gear stalk) before it will travel through an intersection after recognizing a green light. If it recognizes a red light, it will come to a stop without user input.

The above seems like the safest way to implement this feature and train the network. If the neural network accidentally classifies a red light as a green light, the vehicle will not proceed through the intersection without explicit acknowledgement by the driver.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I dunno.... it will probably be pretty heavily promoted to the driver as assistance and advisory only, and 'please keep eyes on the road and hands on the wheel'. Autopilot already will steer your car at very high speeds, I dont think the stoplight feature is any more dangerous, in fact its likely to stop a LOT of accidents where people are distracted by a phonecall, or blinded by the sun and were about to race through a red light unwittingly.

Actually...
It might be a good idea if the car flashed up a warning after it saved a drivers ass who wasn't paying attention Maybe a big red HEY! DUMBASS! I JUST SAVED YO ASS .

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Not seeing this discussed:
GM and Ford's EV production plans for the US have leaked, and they are a joke

According to detailed production plans from GM and Ford that were viewed by Reuters, the two biggest American automakers will be making 5 million petrol-powered SUVs and pickup trucks in 2026, and only 320,000 electric vehicles. That’s just about 5% of Ford and GM’s combined vehicle production in North America, and less than Tesla’s output in 2019 from its one factory in Fremont, CA.

Ford and GM’s upcoming electric cars risk becoming yet another generation of compliance cars.

Yup...these companies are toast. Anyone *planning* to only hit 320k cars in 2026 will probably in reality hit 200k or less, and if they are suffering post virus-recession, maybe even just 100k. Does ANYBODY think Tesla will not be producing a million EVs a year by 2026?

There is no competition. Ford and GM are history. Even a government bailout will not save them from this level of dumbness.

 

[MC3OZ]

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

I think these numbers are close to right....

Q1 very close. Q2,-Q4 +/- 10K.....

Even if we take the more negative numbers around 410K deliveries for the year gives Tesla a shot at being profitable on a yearly basis, especially with extra revenue for Tesla Energy, some EV credits and perhaps some recognition of FSD revenue.

More importantly they probably exit Q4 with a production run rate around 500K-600K per year, the worst of COVID-19 is probably over around the start of 2021 both in terms of health and financial impacts. (We all hope it is,)

My point is a short term dip in deliveries for a quarter or two in this kind of situation is not terminal, it can be quickly reversed.

The long term impacts of COVID-19 I expect is more people will want self-sufficiency., home solar and a battery, more people will do domestic car trips rather than flying or cruising overseas.

If anyone is installing home solar and a battery and planning on driving holidays in their own country, a Tesla is a logical choice for their next vehicle.

So not only car EV sales drive solar an batteries, it can work in reverse, home solar and battery sales, can drive EV sales.

 

[RobStark]

S & P downgraded Ford to BB+

Tesla is still at B-

 

[charlesgres]

You can do that if you like, but the level of volatility we've seen means the options pricing is absurd right now. Simply not worth buying even $900 TSLA options, they're just way too expensive. Buy shares if you want to buy something, or you can wait a month of IV to calm down and hope TSLA is still <$600.

I don't get that.. Yes, prices may be higher because of volatility, and going forward volatility may drop and so will the option prices, but at some point they will be higher again.. it's up and down constantly.. At that later point the SP will probably be higher, that's what we all believe, and thus the option price will also be a lot higher, with the leverage.. So no, I don't think volatility means you should stay away from options.. You will just have lower leverage.. Still more than the leverage of 1 of holding the share itself though..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

Hi Dave, thanks for making that video.

If we go with an Apr 30 restart at Fremont, but Q2 @ 1/2 prod. rate, Q3 @ 3/4:

Q1: 90K total
Q2: 30K GF3 + ( 30K M3 + 6K S/X + 8K Y) = 74K
Q3: 48K GF3 + ( 66K M3 + 13K S/X + 24K Y) = 151K
Q4: 60K GF3 + ( 87K M3 + 13K S/X + 35K Y) = 195K

2020 S3XY Total: 510K​

So I do still see a clear path to over 500K production in 2020, given that Fremont can return to full production by Q4. I think that's reasonable, given the young work force and Tesla's vertical integration. Note that the above ramp rate allows for a restart at Fremont as late as May 15 while still having Tesla produce 500K total vehicles for 2020

Note also that the above estimate 228K MIC Model 3s for 2020, well above the initial tgt of 150K. However, I think this is reasonable since it assumes only the present production rate (2.5K/wk) for Q2, and a gradual rampup to 5K/week during 2020H2 (which again is reasonable once the new source of CATL bty packs becomes available).

In terms of revenues for FY2020, I think it will be better than expected. Tesla is NOT just an automaker anymore: their TE products like Powerwall for retail customers and Megapack for Utiltities customers may surprise, and Software income is poised to step up with further FSD features unlocking 100s of millions in accumulated funds to GAAP income.

Finally, I'd like to see Tesla launch TN (the Tesla Network) for ride sharing with existing Tesla owners, thereby leveraging the existing fleet of 1+ M cars to earn income. Caveat One: ensure the 'TN App' allows only drivers and riders who have tested positive and verified for antibodies to the novel coronavirus. Status of every person that enters the car should be tracked by the back end, including followups as required. Soon enough, herd immunity will allow a return to moderately normal life.

Cheers!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

What is the news Elektrek wants to convey?

We found 2 out of the 510,000 infected people in the world?

I really can't read the articles from Fred and Eleckrek any more as there is nothing else than greedy clickbait.

Sad, I liked them once.

No, I was trying to correlate the TSLA price drop with a trigger. The news (from Electrek and seekingalpha), that Tesla notified their employees that 2 of them were confirmed infected, was what I assumed was the trigger. After all, if 2 employees are confirmed infected, then the hope of nummi restarting quickly comes into doubt. Until we know that no other employees were also infected (might take a week), there will be doubt and that will weigh on the sentiment. So I expect the SP to stay stagnant until more details are known.

 

[MC3OZ]

S & P downgraded Ford to BB+

Tesla is still at B-

I'm optimistic the share price will be high enough for all convertible notes to convert and once COVID-19 is over Tesla can mostly be funded by internal cash generation not additional raises or loans.

But if additional funds are need I hope they are equity raises or convertible notes not some other type of loan... i.e. dilution doesn't worry me because I think SP increase will out strip that dilution.

So overtime debt should trend towards being a much lower proportion of the market cap and interest payments a much lower portion of the revenue. This B- rating is helping to provide incentives for Tesla to reduce debt and not take on extra debt, IMO that is a good thing..

I'm unsure how the B- rating affects capital raises based on equities and convertibles, it probably provides more inventive to directly issue equity... Again I'm optimistic the share price will return tho the territory that makes issuing equity attractive.

This more dilution lower debt road, is the road I hope we travel.

 

[Cupidchild]

Yep, it was shorting. FINRA reported short volume was ~ 62% of total volume, which places today's relative amount of shorting at the 82nd Percentile rank.

View attachment 526157

The most recent NASDAQ Short Interest report showed that (as of March 13, 2020) shortzes continue in a "net cover" mode. IMHO, their tactic is frighten the herd with sudden, inexplicable plunges to try to convince them to cut'n'run while the shortzes buy back on the cheap. Won't work with me.

HODLing.

21 EMA hit at 550 created resistance and all the shorts jump on it.. and TSLA never made it back up... but stopped by 512.25 due to macro and last 15 mins. action tells us, TSLA coming back to the mean. TSLA actually now inline with all the other stocks.. TSLA just went up quicker.. Now it goes inline. I see TSLA hit 618-620 at the peak of this bounce. -> That's the scenario where SPY goes to 270+ level.
I was very tempted to sell @ 550 today.. I had 2 chances but stopped myself for 2 reasons: Momentum of the rest of the market, and technical chart of TSLA. Higher chance that we go higher before going back down.
Based on the consolidation move today..
60% chance it moves up
40% chance it moves down.

I say macro has more upside, depending on how you think about this, I say more upside.

 

[HG Wells]

I dunno.... it will probably be pretty heavily promoted to the driver as assistance and advisory only, and 'please keep eyes on the road and hands on the wheel'. Autopilot already will steer your car at very high speeds, I dont think the stoplight feature is any more dangerous, in fact its likely to stop a LOT of accidents where people are distracted by a phonecall, or blinded by the sun and were about to race through a red light unwittingly.

Actually...
It might be a good idea if the car flashed up a warning after it saved a drivers ass who wasn't paying attention Maybe a big red HEY! DUMBASS! I JUST SAVED YO ASS .

Car Says "Request authorization to charge your credit card 5 thousand for saving your ass."

 

[deffu]

from electrek:

Tesla furloughs employees due to drop in demand amid crisis

Tesla has announced that it is going to put some employees on furlough due to a drop in demand amid the current coronavirus crisis.

An email from Axel Tangen, Tesla’s director of Northern Europe, to employees in Norway states that Tesla plans to temporarily lay off some workers due to demand slowing down (via Business Insider):

In plain terms, our current capacity is higher than the actual work available to us, due to uncertainty and restrictions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Sadly, this means that our staffing need will be lower than normal for some time to come. We are confident that this trend will reverse as the outbreak is contained and Norwegians return to their daily lives, but we need to take action to ensure there is a place to work for us all when things return to normal.

The executive said that the layoffs would start in April, but he didn’t specify how many people would be affected.

He wrote:

We will talk individually with the employees affected by the layoff. Initially, they will be laid off for the month of April. The employee and safety representatives will meet with management on a weekly basis to evaluate the current situation.

Tangen also said that “Tesla will decide which employees will be furloughed based on the necessity of their role, the amount of time they’ve worked for the company, and particularly compelling social conditions.”

Unsurprisingly, automotive sales are down around the world as the coronavirus is slamming on the brakes of the world’s economy and people are delaying major purchases, like cars.

Sources familiar with Tesla sales told Electrek that the automaker is seeing very few new orders and a lot of cancellation over the last few weeks.

In the US, Tesla is still delivering new cars, especially the Model Y, which just launched.

Tesla was also forced to close stores in the US, but not of its own volition. Many of its stores are located in malls that were closed due to the coronavirus crisis.

At the time, a source familiar with Tesla’s retail division told Electrek that the automaker plans to temporarily transfer the employees to its delivery operations.

Norway is one of Tesla’s biggest markets with hundreds of employees across over a dozen stores and service centers.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Mar 26, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $533.13
Volume: 17,446,568
Traded: $9,301,317,426.53 ($9.30 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.05%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 61.79% (82nd Percentile shorting volume)

Comment: "Strong Opening; Shorted down vs Macros from 10:15" NDX +5.72 vs TSLA -2.06%

 

[MP3Mike]

rom electrek:

Tesla furloughs employees due to drop in demand amid crisis

Tesla has announced that it is going to put some employees on furlough due to a drop in demand amid the current coronavirus crisis.

Is it really a demand problem or just more FUD from Fred? With the factory now shut down I have to imagine that the demand is greater than 0, so the problem isn't really a demand problem right now. (They can't sell what they can't make.)

Once the factory is back up and running we will find out of the demand vanished because of the COVID-19 impacts or if the demand is still there.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

from electrek:

Tesla furloughs employees due to drop in demand amid crisis

Tesla has announced that it is going to put some employees on furlough due to a drop in demand amid the current coronavirus crisis.

An email from Axel Tangen, Tesla’s director of Northern Europe, to employees in Norway states that Tesla plans to temporarily lay off some workers due to demand slowing down (via Business Insider):

In plain terms, our current capacity is higher than the actual work available to us, due to uncertainty and restrictions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Sadly, this means that our staffing need will be lower than normal for some time to come. We are confident that this trend will reverse as the outbreak is contained and Norwegians return to their daily lives, but we need to take action to ensure there is a place to work for us all when things return to normal.

The executive said that the layoffs would start in April, but he didn’t specify how many people would be affected.

He wrote:

We will talk individually with the employees affected by the layoff. Initially, they will be laid off for the month of April. The employee and safety representatives will meet with management on a weekly basis to evaluate the current situation.

Tangen also said that “Tesla will decide which employees will be furloughed based on the necessity of their role, the amount of time they’ve worked for the company, and particularly compelling social conditions.”

Unsurprisingly, automotive sales are down around the world as the coronavirus is slamming on the brakes of the world’s economy and people are delaying major purchases, like cars.

Sources familiar with Tesla sales told Electrek that the automaker is seeing very few new orders and a lot of cancellation over the last few weeks.

In the US, Tesla is still delivering new cars, especially the Model Y, which just launched.

Tesla was also forced to close stores in the US, but not of its own volition. Many of its stores are located in malls that were closed due to the coronavirus crisis.

At the time, a source familiar with Tesla’s retail division told Electrek that the automaker plans to temporarily transfer the employees to its delivery operations.

Norway is one of Tesla’s biggest markets with hundreds of employees across over a dozen stores and service centers.

That's an insanely misleading headline.......Is it really that hard to put "Tesla furloughs Norway employees due to drop in demand in Norway amid crisis" Really Fred? I swear it's going to come out one day that Fred was a short all along

 

[Thekiwi]

Is it really a demand problem or just more FUD from Fred? With the factory now shut down I have to imagine that the demand is greater than 0, so the problem isn't really a demand problem right now. (They can't sell what they can't make.)

Once the factory is back up and running we will find out of the demand vanished because of the COVID-19 impacts or if the demand is still there.

Tens of millions of people are in the process of losing their jobs across US & Europe. Of course it will have a near term detrimental effect on new car sales, as many more people fear they will also lose their jobs and as such delay large discretionary purchases.

 

[S3XY]

This is the last time I am going to provide an update as we are now only a week from the end of Q1. The Teslike tracker now has 132 Model Y's with delivery dates. Only 3 of these are in Q2 and they are significantly into Q2 so they look like customer requests for delivery to be later. There may be some further deliveries scheduled in the next few days but I am going to be conservative and ignore those.

If I remember correctly the deliveries in the Model 3 delivery tracker were initially around 6% of the total deliveries (@Troy may be able to confirm). If that is the case then assuming the same % sample here would indicate that around 2200 Y's will be delivered in Q1.

As I don't think Tesla were stockpiling in advance of market release that would also imply a MY production rate of around 1000/week.

Does this seem flawed?

Do we know if there were deliveries to Tesla and SpaceX staff prior to public deliveries starting March 13th?

Well, the see-saw of my Model Y delivery has swung once again and now they're telling me they're aiming to deliver it this weekend. I'll find out more details tomorrow. I added my order to the tracker but did not list a delivery date. So I might be an addition to the March deliveries.

 

[sparcs]

Tens of millions of people are in the process of losing their jobs across US & Europe. Of course it will have a near term detrimental effect on new car sales, as many more people fear they will also lose their jobs and as such delay large discretionary purchases.

exactly. This is an entirely different narrative. Tesla isn't running out of people who want their cars. These folks have just delayed their purchase until this economic uncertainty passes. Hard part is predicting when we bounce back.