Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Zero CO2]

I must say i am liking the flow of this thread lately staying OT for the most part ...... hope all the defectors from last weeks blow up come back online to a smoother experience.

just to stay sort of on topic ...where do folks think TSLA stands for SP500 inclusion ...do we think has this virus delayed it till 2021?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tens of millions of people are in the process of losing their jobs across US & Europe. Of course it will have a near term detrimental effect on new car sales, as many more people fear they will also lose their jobs and as such delay large discretionary purchases.

The issue here is that the actual email that is quoted doesn't talk about demand.

"In plain terms, our current capacity is higher than the actual work available to us, due to uncertainty and restrictions caused by the coronavirus outbreak"......which could mean demand OR there's an equal or IMO greater chance that he's talking about the fact that there are no cars coming from Fremont for the next 4-6 weeks, maybe more and won't have any cars to sell. The next part that is quoted "The employee and safety representatives will meet with management on a weekly basis to evaluate the current situation." seems pretty clear to me that they're evaluating on a weekly basis to see when Fremont starts production again.

If Fred has access to the entire email, post it. Don't quote an ambiguous part of the email and leave out everything else. Fred wants his clicks. Simple as that.

 

[MC3OZ]

I must say i am liking the flow of this thread lately staying OT for the most part ...... hope all the defectors from last weeks blow up come back online to a smoother experience.

just to stay sort of on topic ...where do folks think TSLA stands for SP500 inclusion ...do we think has this virus delayed it till 2021?

Q1 earnings should give some predictions for Q2, Q3 and Q4

We will be better positioned to make a guess when we have Q1 earnings, and those predictions..

But the optimistic view is an outside chance of inclusion late this year, very good chance of inclusion sometime in 2021.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How about the simple fact that the SP has gone up 50% in the last 6 trading days?

So what? the SP has gone down 3.4% over the past 12 trading days. Cherry picking date ranges is useless or worse deceiving unless you present the larger picture: (2x recommended)

Further, TSLA dramatically parted ways from the macros at 10:15 ET today, and no this is not timed to match the Electrick blog post about 2 + covid cases 2 weeks ago (who self-isolated), which was published at 10:28 ET.

FINRA reported Short Volume was 61.8% of their total volume today. That ranks in the 82th Percentile for the proportion of short selling since Jan 31, 2020. That's very high.

Also today, FINRA's reported total volume was only 45.4% of total NASDAQ trades, ranking at just the 34th Percentile for trading volume reported. That means there was a LARGE amount of trading today on which we have no visibility whatsoever wrt the portion of short sales. It could literally be any amount, and if these shorts are covered within 13 days, we will NEVER know what happened. Not that 2-wk late information helps trading decisions. Yet another reason to 'BUY AND HOLD'.

So there it is: Today was a bear raid, pure and simple. No justification; only manipulation. Plain as the nose on their two-faces.

 

[BornToFly]

I know $2T is a lot of stimulus, but I still feel like there is a disconnect between the market and what is happening in the world. I have gone to recording Nightly News with Lestor Holt on NBC everyday because I feel like they give good updates on that which will not be discussed on this forum. Tesla can't build a car if a single supplier isn't shipping. It it possible that Q2 only has 6 weeks of limited Fremont production, so I don't think Dave T's numbers are too low at all. I have 2021 TSLA Puts that were green last week, and are red now. I'm going to hold for a while and see if they turn green again. If they do, it means the SP is down again, and getting into the range where I'm willing to go on margin to buy more shares. I will start selling my core shares in blocks once we get over 1200.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Just noticed Ford and Tesla’s stock just fell sharply at the same time. Auto news?

Both TSLA and F (Ford Motor Co.) were heavily shorted today (via FINRA):

• TLSA 61.79%
• F 60.04%

Whereas the other 2 major N.America Automakers were NOT heavily shorted:

• GM 48.65%
• FCAU 30.67%

The difference can be seen in the relative strength of their SP today:

It's obvious that the S&P downgrade of Ford's credit to 'junk' status encouraged this move on 'F'. However in an absence of news for Tesla, today's move on TSLA is a plain, ol'fashioned bear raid. They do it because they can, and there's nobody to crack down on abuse, making them fair game for bottom-feeders.

Ford will be getting their juicy Gov't bailout; if Tesla doesn't receive similar consideration their will be hell to pay. We shareholders are watching your moves.

#SEC #ShortsEnrichmentCommission

 

[Hock1]

So what? the SP has gone down 3.4% over the past 12 trading days. Cherry picking date ranges is useless or worse deceiving unless you present the larger picture: (2x recommended)

View attachment 526258

Further, TSLA dramatically parted ways from the macros at 10:15 ET today, and no this is not timed to match the Electrick blog post about 2 + covid cases 2 weeks ago (who self-isolated), which was published at 10:28 ET.

View attachment 526260

FINRA reported Short Volume was 61.8% of their total volume today. That ranks in the 82th Percentile for the proportion of short selling since Jan 31, 2020. That's very high.

Also today, FINRA's reported total volume was only 45.4% of total NASDAQ trades, ranking at just the 34th Percentile for trading volume reported. That means there was a LARGE amount of trading today on which we have no visibility whatsoever wrt the portion of short sales. It could literally be any amount, and if these shorts are covered within 13 days, we will NEVER know what happened. Not that 2-wk late information helps trading decisions. Yet another reason to 'BUY AND HOLD'.

So there it is: Today was a bear raid, pure and simple. No justification; only manipulation. Plain as the nose on their two-faces.

You misunderstand my post. I was trying to answer an obvious short-term trader in a language he/she might understand. I didn't try to cherrypick anything. I have no agenda. If you really want a larger picture, here it is: Short term trading of options and stock, and market-timing are loser's games. Long term ownership of equity (stock), is the only dependable way to build wealth. I do hope you grasp where I stand.

 

[EVNow]

Just a note on this video, I made a mistake when calculating total delivery estimates for 2020:
Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 130k
Q4 - 150k
Should have said "around 440k" but said "around 500k".

Am I too pessimistic or optimistic? What's your take?

I've seen many people (including executives in my company and Musk too) assume the situation will blow off in a month or two and then everything will be back to normal. That's probably the overall market expectation too. Experts say we'll have to have cycles of lock-out and relaxation, since the virus returns in big numbers when social distancing is relaxed.

Wat actually happens in really unknown at this point - but your numbers assume the former case. What about the (atleast equally likely) latter case ? How will the numbers look then ? What about the possibility of a big return in next fall/winter ? What might a pessimistic outlook be ...

Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 100k
Q4 - 80k
​

 

[ZeApelido]

from electrek:

Tesla furloughs employees due to drop in demand amid crisis

Tesla has announced that it is going to put some employees on furlough due to a drop in demand amid the current coronavirus crisis.

An email from Axel Tangen, Tesla’s director of Northern Europe, to employees in Norway states that Tesla plans to temporarily lay off some workers due to demand slowing down (via Business Insider):

In plain terms, our current capacity is higher than the actual work available to us, due to uncertainty and restrictions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. Sadly, this means that our staffing need will be lower than normal for some time to come. We are confident that this trend will reverse as the outbreak is contained and Norwegians return to their daily lives, but we need to take action to ensure there is a place to work for us all when things return to normal.

The executive said that the layoffs would start in April, but he didn’t specify how many people would be affected.

He wrote:

We will talk individually with the employees affected by the layoff. Initially, they will be laid off for the month of April. The employee and safety representatives will meet with management on a weekly basis to evaluate the current situation.

Tangen also said that “Tesla will decide which employees will be furloughed based on the necessity of their role, the amount of time they’ve worked for the company, and particularly compelling social conditions.”

Unsurprisingly, automotive sales are down around the world as the coronavirus is slamming on the brakes of the world’s economy and people are delaying major purchases, like cars.

Sources familiar with Tesla sales told Electrek that the automaker is seeing very few new orders and a lot of cancellation over the last few weeks.

In the US, Tesla is still delivering new cars, especially the Model Y, which just launched.

Tesla was also forced to close stores in the US, but not of its own volition. Many of its stores are located in malls that were closed due to the coronavirus crisis.

At the time, a source familiar with Tesla’s retail division told Electrek that the automaker plans to temporarily transfer the employees to its delivery operations.

Norway is one of Tesla’s biggest markets with hundreds of employees across over a dozen stores and service centers.

Shocking. No one could have seen this coming.

 

[MC3OZ]

I know $2T is a lot of stimulus, but I still feel like there is a disconnect between the market and what is happening in the world. I have gone to recording Nightly News with Lestor Holt on NBC everyday because I feel like they give good updates on that which will not be discussed on this forum. Tesla can't build a car if a single supplier isn't shipping. It it possible that Q2 only has 6 weeks of limited Fremont production, so I don't think Dave T's numbers are too low at all. I have 2021 TSLA Puts that were green last week, and are red now. I'm going to hold for a while and see if they turn green again. If they do, it means the SP is down again, and getting into the range where I'm willing to go on margin to buy more shares. I will start selling my core shares in blocks once we get over 1200.

Again, I think we will get guidance on this parts issue in Q1 earnings...

If they are short a few parts you can bet they are working on alternative suppliers, or making the part in house at Tesla, in the US, or China.
Even perhaps buying a parts maker in China, and altering their priorities.

More than any other car maker Tesla has high vertical integration and the ability to shift part making in house.
It is hard to guess how long shifting the making of a part in house would take, my optimistic guess would be 3-6 weeks, so it was never worth doing for Q1. Q2 it may be worth considering for some parts, depending on progress.

I think we know Elon well enough to know he will not he happy with factories closed due to a lack of parts, he will be making sure something is done about it.

 

[Singuy]

Both TSLA and F (Ford Motor Co.) were heavily shorted today (via FINRA):

• TLSA 61.79%
• F 60.04%

Whereas the other 2 major N.America Automakers were NOT heavily shorted:

• GM 48.65%
• FCAU 30.67%

The difference can be seen in the relative strength of their SP today:

View attachment 526268
It's obvious that the S&P downgrade of Ford's credit to 'junk' status encouraged this move on 'F'. However in an absence of news for Tesla, today's move on TSLA is a plain, ol'fashioned bear raid. They do it because they can, and there's nobody to crack down on abuse, making them fair game for bottom-feeders.

Ford will be getting their juicy Gov't bailout; if Tesla doesn't receive similar consideration their will be hell to pay. We shareholders are watching your moves.

#SEC #ShortsEnrichmentCommission

Or maybe people thought Tesla would get an upgrade today but didn't? We were all talking about a possible upgrade a few weeks ago before this thing hit.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I really think this is the market selling off tesla due to risk/new short positions being initiated in anticipation for the P/D numbers which come out at the end of next week.

Not a market sell off: there was 62% short selling today on relatively low volume. That's SP manipulation.

Meanwhile, retail investors (proxy: # Robinhood holders) are at an all-time record high and increased today:

 

[MC3OZ]

I've seen many people (including executives in my company and Musk too) assume the situation will blow off in a month or two and then everything will be back to normal. That's probably the overall market expectation too. Experts say we'll have to have cycles of lock-out and relaxation, since the virus returns in big numbers when social distancing is relaxed.

Wat actually happens in really unknown at this point - but your numbers assume the former case. What about the (atleast equally likely) latter case ? How will the numbers look then ? What about the possibility of a big return in next fall/winter ? What might a pessimistic outlook be ...

Q1 - 90k
Q2 - 70k
Q3 - 100k
Q4 - 80k
​

This is why I disagree....

1. The big hope for controlling the virus is that antibody test.
Assuming it works, would like to see Australia doing one million of these tests per week, scaling that to the US population that is 10-15 Million tests per week. Eventually anyone who visits a doctor for anything should have the test.
We are not yet certain the test works, but Australia was certain enough to buy 1.2 Million tests.
If this doesn't work some other test may emerge, that cycle of lock followed by unlock is not certain.. we can't rule it out, but we can't rule it in.

2. See the discussion on parts, Tesla can move faster than other car makers, yes demand will fall, but production may fall faster and Tesla may get additional inventory faster than other car makers. Again there is lots of uncertainty here.

I don't think considering the negative alternative is bad, but we need to refine the argument... my points might not be valid, but rather than assumptions we need detailed arguments.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

The next Autopilot update will stop for red lights and stop signs automatically.

Musk himself retweeted it:

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

Oh man. I may need to finally buy FSD. I've been waiting until this was released basically.

 

[Cupidchild]

I know $2T is a lot of stimulus, but I still feel like there is a disconnect between the market and what is happening in the world. I have gone to recording Nightly News with Lestor Holt on NBC everyday because I feel like they give good updates on that which will not be discussed on this forum. Tesla can't build a car if a single supplier isn't shipping. It it possible that Q2 only has 6 weeks of limited Fremont production, so I don't think Dave T's numbers are too low at all. I have 2021 TSLA Puts that were green last week, and are red now. I'm going to hold for a while and see if they turn green again. If they do, it means the SP is down again, and getting into the range where I'm willing to go on margin to buy more shares. I will start selling my core shares in blocks once we get over 1200.

Wonder what 2021 Put price is?

Also why 1200? Wondering how you came up with that target and when you expect 1200+ SP to occur. I think we can see 1200 before December of this year

 

[Todd Burch]

One thing to think about:

There’s been a lot of talk lately about COVID-19 being a seasonal virus. Think about the flu....do we see it in cycles during the summer? No, flu season is over the winter months.

I have a feeling this will be like flu season. It will wane in the summer, and come back in the winter (although not nearly as severe as this year).

As a result I’m not expecting a big resurgence during the middle of the year in the northern hemisphere, so I expect a recovery throughout late spring into summer.

 

[Artful Dodger]

You can get 100 shares of NIO for $3k $293

FTFY.

 

[heltok]

The next Autopilot update will stop for red lights and stop signs automatically.

Musk himself retweeted it:

Third Row Tesla Podcast on Twitter

I hope they will release it at Q1 and hopefully the can recognize enough deferred revenue to push Q1 into +200M even with 90k prod, 80k deliveries and corona shutdown. Guess the rest of the deferred revenue will have to wait until end of Q2 when they might be able to claim probably profitable going forward.

Regarding Corona I think video is important:

From the video it seems that doing a hammer of 2-8 weeks and then some minor social distancing, contact tracing, hygiene etc to get R0<2 could be sufficient to keep the virus at ~influensa deaths rates for the rest of the year. Hopefully by now most people have learnt to take the virus seriously, in two weeks even more will after seeing the horrific consequences of not doing it. I expect most people to social distance somewhat for the rest of the year. Testing will scale with the 5min antibody test coming out soon and lots of other different tests. At some point I assume most airports will open with just an extra security procedure where everyone is tested every time and some digital system where people who are confirmed immune can just pass.

There will be a lot of turbulance, a lot of lost jobs and economic hardship. But it will pass. Some industries will lose, like public transport, events, gatherings, gyms etc. Other will gain, such as private car ownership, digital entertainment etc. For a time people will shift their consumer behavior from high contact activites to low contact activites.

Good news is that the social distancing will decrease the spread of many other diseases such as influensa, cold, gonorrhea superbug etc.

 

[Carl Raymond]

If you watch the video carefully, it requires user input (accelerator pedal or gear stalk) before it will travel through an intersection after recognizing a green light. If it recognizes a red light, it will come to a stop without user input.

The above seems like the safest way to implement this feature and train the network. If the neural network accidentally classifies a red light as a green light, the vehicle will not proceed through the intersection without explicit acknowledgement by the driver.

What if:
User sees red light. Autopilot doesn’t see any light. User assumes autopilot will stop, as it has done so correctly the previous 1000 times.
?

Perfect is fine.
Bad is fine as user will remain alert.
Nearly perfect is bad as user will forget their responsibility.

 

[njzimmic]

Not a market sell off: there was 62% short selling today on relatively low volume. That's SP manipulation.

Meanwhile, retail investors (proxy: # Robinhood holders) are at an all-time record high and increased today:

View attachment 526278

JEEZ more the buyers the more I am thinking about shorting this thing!