Not trying to be a dick here but need to chime in. Tesla has historically used the delivery reports to reaffirm guidance. That they did not address guidance at all in yesterday’s letter is not necessarily bullish.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Not trying to be a dick here but need to chime in. Tesla has historically used the delivery reports to reaffirm guidance. That they did not address guidance at all in yesterday’s letter is not necessarily bullish.
Man, this looked so promising.
Hope we close green today.........
Hope we close green today.........
I wonder if/when Tesla will start including solar & energy numbers in the P&D report. That would help the media & analysts realize Tesla is not just a car company.
Very temping, but I'm still worried about the economy. I'm leaning towards "Tesla won't be hammered too hard" though.
Kinda hard to give guidance when no one knows when this global shitstorm is going to end.
Montana Sceptic has a long history of distortions and direct lies. And his assertions, of course, have proven wrong time and time again. I have no problems with shorts or bearish analysts. I have problems manipulators. Chanos, Fossi, etc. have the belief that with distorted realities they present they can hurt investors and consumer confidence in Tesla and thus they can substantially hurt and even force the financially vulnerable TEsla. Given how much Musk hates these guys there is no question that they had some negative effect. Looking at Tesla sales and share price grows they failed miserably.
As far as "order book" for Y. 1. Tesla never had an "order book". Reservations are not orders. Further, they have not actively promoted the Y fearing that it would cannibalize the 3. 2. It is an obvious fact the virus panic reduced the number of customers with reservations who wanted to take deliveries. 3. There are still more customers currently who want to have immediate delivery of the Y than cars available. 4. I personally know several people who want to have the Y although known of them want to buy a car right now. Anyway when life normalizes even assuming a very bad recession or depression the demand for Y will be very high. Montana's line has been for years that everybody who ever wanted to buy a Tesla has already bought it already is just as false now as it was 5 years ago. It is bullshit, and he knows it.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Man, you have a lot to learn.
And this is coming from someone who just said you can't predict short-term price movements. Some things are so obvious it's pretty much a given. Even if we give back most of the gains, we are not going to give back all of them today
Regrettably, not quite. Q2 last year was also a biggish loss. (Remember: GAAP)So a Q1 profit, as Deutsche bank and presumably others now expect, is enough to get us into the S&P 500 right? Surely there are enough companies that have taken huge hits to their valuations for there to be room.
Q219 -408
Q319 +143
Q419 +105
---------------
need +160 in Q1 to be GAAP profitable for the last 4 quarters. This is unlikely to happen.
However, so long as Q2 is positive, with Q219 dropping out, it's virtually certain that Tesla would qualify for inclusion, since Q1 would have to be a loss of $248M or so to prevent it, which is unlikely. But will Q2 be positive? Very hard to tell.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
You reaffirm guidance at earnings, a deliveries announcement is simply an opportunity to change guidance.
Actually the Model Y never had reservations like the Model 3, only fully configured orders.
So a Q1 profit, as Deutsche bank and presumably others now expect, is enough to get us into the S&P 500 right? Surely there are enough companies that have taken huge hits to their valuations for there to be room.
Or they are trying set the bar high so they can push the stock down when we do NOT report a profit.
Not trying, but succeeding.
Here is the delivery letter for Q4 and all of 2019: Tesla Q4 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.. It contains no guidance.
Here is the Oct. 2nd one: Tesla Q3 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.. It contains no guidance.
LOL it would be kind of silly to reaffirm guidance on a Q4 report no? Seeing as how the actual numbers for the year are known and everything. See my earlier post about the Q1 2019 letter.
The whole context of this conversation is another commenter suggesting that the lack of update on guidance in yesterday's letter is bullish. I'm simply providing the other side of that argument.
For the scenario in that post, yes. It was about a daily movement.Telsa is not an $80B Company; it's a $2Trillion Company (conservative estimate). The simple fact that the SP has been held down by the most tenacious Short/FUD campaign in the history of Wall St. somehow seems lost on you...
Seriously, what is your investment timeframe? 4 PM?
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
This is not correct. The last time Tesla reiterated guidance in a P&D report was the report for Q1 2019, after an awful quarter. Since then, it hasn't reaffirmed guidance in the P&D letters and instead has discussed future production and deliveries in the quarterly earnings updates or calls.
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