Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

This is not correct. The last time Tesla reiterated guidance was in the Q1 2019 P&D report, after an awful quarter. Since then, it hasn't said anything about guidance in the P&D letters and instead has discussed future production and deliveries in the quarterly earnings updates or calls.

Keeping in mind they would be legally obligated to disclose any significant move downward of internal year-end guidance.

 

[SimplyThis]

Man, you have a lot to learn.

And this is coming from someone who just said you can't predict short-term price movements. Some things are so obvious it's pretty much a given. Even if we give back most of the gains, we are not going to give back all of them today

I have a lot to learn for sure.
One thing I learned already is,
Lower SP for promising stonks means lower entry points are available.
High SP is nice, low is BUY.
Even experienced investors won't disagree on that?

 

[thx1139]

How could they give any guidance, just too many variables at play right now. They really dont know when they will reopen production, they dont know how many employees will come back day 1, day 2, day 10. It would be nothing but reckless to try and make predictions in a delivery report.

 

[Zaxxon]

Keeping in mind they would be legally obligated to disclose any significant move downward of internal year-end guidance.

Correct--on the quarterly call, not the P&D report.

Hey all, I'm still here, just without the time to keep up with this thread as much as I'd like. Been nibbling back some trading shares in the past weeks at these bargain-basement prices after having sold some back when the price had skyrocketed.

 

[dha]

How could they give any guidance, just too many variables at play right now. They really dont know when they will reopen production, they dont know how many employees will come back day 1, day 2, day 10. It would be nothing but reckless to try and make predictions in a delivery report.

That is exactly my point. My comments were in response to another commenter suggesting that the lack of guidance update is bullish. I come in and say that "hey, that's not necessarily bullish" and everyone gets their panties in a bunch.

 

[vikings123]

How could they give any guidance, just too many variables at play right now. They really dont know when they will reopen production, they dont know how many employees will come back day 1, day 2, day 10. It would be nothing but reckless to try and make predictions in a delivery report.

This. Not even Elon can solve this problem.

 

[gerebgraus]

Actually the Model Y never had reservations like the Model 3, only fully configured orders.

Were the deposit for these orders " fully refundable."?

 

[Nocturnal]

Regrettably, not quite. Q2 last year was also a biggish loss. (Remember: GAAP)
Q219 -408
Q319 +143
Q419 +105
---------------
need +160 in Q1 to be GAAP profitable for the last 4 quarters. This is unlikely to happen.

However, so long as Q2 is positive, with Q219 dropping out, it's virtually certain that Tesla would qualify for inclusion, since Q1 would have to be a loss of $248M or so to prevent it, which is unlikely. But will Q2 be positive? Very hard to tell.

One thing I have noticed is that what sites like Investopedia and fool report as the requirements are different than what the S&P 500 itself lists as requirements with the latter being more lax. I'm struggling to find the actual link from Standard and Poor but I believe the criteria for current quarter to be profitable is not correct.

This article is what the actual S&P document stated, but perhaps there is something I'm missing.

What the S&P 500 Tells You About America's Health

 

[dl003]

That is exactly my point. My comments were in response to another commenter suggesting that the lack of guidance update is bullish. I come in and say that "hey, that's not necessarily bullish" and everyone gets their panties in a bunch.

This is what you wrote
"Tesla has historically used the delivery reports to reaffirm guidance."
It's flat out wrong. Get your facts straight and then we can talk about points.

 

[Mo City]

How could they give any guidance, just too many variables at play right now. They really dont know when they will reopen production, they dont know how many employees will come back day 1, day 2, day 10. It would be nothing but reckless to try and make predictions in a delivery report.

Can everyone just agree with this and let's move on from the issue?

 

[Crowded Mind]

Just an FYI on the guidance conversation, TSLA has provided some sort of update about 60% of the time in the quarterly delivery/production reports. It's not uncommon.

From:

 

[Bobbyducati]

a little macro help could go a long way here...

 

[viridi]

What the bears seem to not be recognizing (maybe (probably?) purposefully) is the P&D report was fantastic, truly game-changing. Not from a Q1 perspective (although that part is not bad), but rather from a future perspective. The bear's focus on Q2 is also misplaced, as it is mostly irrelevant. No company will do well. The economy is shutdown. But, Tesla is in a very strong financial position, especially with their very timely capital raise. What the P&D report does show is how much Tesla is destroying its competition. Traditional, big auto did not do well in Q1 based on the reports that have been coming out. Tesla did. Tesla seems to be expanding its lead not just as an electric car manufacture, but as an auto manufacturer. In addition, unlike big auto, Tesla has energy products that should be big drivers of growth going forward, and are not really being factored in by many analysts. The P&D report, from my perspective, was an immensely positive sign for what is to come when the economy gets going again.

 

[Zaxxon]

What the bears seem to not be recognizing (maybe (probably?) purposefully) is the P&D report was fantastic, truly game-changing. Not from a Q1 perspective (although that part is not bad), but rather from a future perspective. The bear's focus on Q2 is also misplaced, as it is mostly irrelevant. No company will do well. The economy is shutdown. But, Tesla is in a very strong financial position, especially with their very timely capital raise. What the P&D report does show is how much Tesla is destroying its competition. Traditional, big auto did not do well in Q1 based on the reports that have been coming out. Tesla did. Tesla seems to be expanding its lead not just as an electric car manufacture, but as an auto manufacturer. In addition, unlike big auto, Tesla has energy products that should be big drivers of growth going forward, and are not really being factored in by many analysts. The P&D report, from my perspective, was an immensely positive sign for what is to come when the economy gets going again.

Agree. While I'm not convinced that we'll see a profit (let's not go overboard, folks), the delivery number ensures that Q1 isn't going to be a big drain on cash like Q1 2019 was. Q2 will likely suck for everyone, but things are A-OK, and certainly far more so for Tesla than for any other automaker.

 

[electrichapp]

man, if P&D didn't come out yesterday, my $400 orders probably would have been filled today! damn!
i was really hoping those orders get filled before the P&D report. oh well.
market bias is still negative because of the rona so maybe there's still chance before the earnings report but am ok if it doesn't.
am really looking forward to the earning report and conference call.

 

[Cupidchild]

man, if P&D didn't come out yesterday, my $400 orders probably would have been filled today! damn!
i was really hoping those orders get filled before the P&D report. oh well.
market bias is still negative because of the rona so maybe there's still chance before the earnings report but am ok if it doesn't.
am really looking forward to the earning report and conference call.

Yeah still a down market... lots of profit taking right at the start and being that its Friday, no one wants to hold anything through the weekend.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah still a down market... lots of profit taking right at the start and being that its Friday, no one wants to hold anything through the weekend.

There will be just as many actual shares held now as there will be at the close of today or the open on Monday, lol!

 

[Krugerrand]

That they did not address guidance at all in yesterday’s letter is not necessarily bullish.

...and not necessarily bearish either so what’s the point?

Let’s just start taking things at face value and use common sense keeping in mind the world wide panic going on, shall we?

Common sense says you’d have to be business stupid to give new guidance or reaffirm current guidance in the middle of a pandemic. There are just too many variables; when can Fremont reopen to produce vehicles, how long to reramp, how many suppliers are going to cause an issue, how will new virus protocols affect EVERYTHING AND EVERYBODY, how quickly can China factory increase production, when will other countries and regions lift their lockdown orders, when will people go back to work, catch up on their bills and be ready to buy a new car and so on.

There is no possible way on this Earth or on Mars for Tesla to know Q2 numbers at this point and how that will affect the entire year guidance.

Can we take just a second to think before posting nonsense? Please?

 

[WarpedOne]

Are we close to 230?
No?
Tnx, bye!

 

[MP3Mike]

There will be just as many actual shares held now as there will be at the close of today or the open on Monday, lol!

Well really that depends on how many shares the shorts create, or retire today.