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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Personally I think it's because a lot of folks aren't at their desks looking at their screens at work...
I'm a Tesla fan and I've reserved a Cybertruck. I've even had a Model S experience on the Autobahn and it ruined ICE vehicles for me. I would never short the stock and money aside, I very much want to see the company be successful.
That being said, I have a real problem investing in the stock.
Tesla is going to have to manufacture and sell some cars to be a going concern business - right? US manufacturing is shuttered, the Chinese factory is running, but they are building cars that are not being purchased, and we really don't know how vehicles are going to sell in the US after we're past this pandemic. It's not unreasonable to believe that this isn't just a Q2 problem. Telsa is already trying to preserve as much capital as possible.
I understand that the overall cost of ownership for a Tesla vehicle is less than a comparable ICE vehicle, but the fact remains that the initial cost of Tesla vehicles are very much in the luxury segment. Luxury vehicles do not fair well during recessions. Anyone who went car shopping after the recession of 2008 will remember the difficulty car manufacturers had selling new cars. We also saw a decrease in the discounted value of pre-owned vehicles as the populace shopped for affordable transportation. Car manufacturers had to offer discounted financing in order to compete with existing used inventory.
Tesla was extremely fortunate to raise capital prior to the pandemic. I think the product is fantastic, but Tesla is also going to need customers to survive this. I feel like it's premature to be banking on orders that may not materialize.
There's an earnings call this month (4/22) where they'll have to share some real guidance on production and sales. That will offer investors some transparency. I don't want to be holding a Tesla position on that day.
The stock ended at $573 today... I'll send myself a reminder to check on 4/23 to see how accurate I am. I hope I'm wrong!
That being said, I have a real problem investing in the stock.
Tesla is going to have to manufacture and sell some cars to be a going concern business - right? US manufacturing is shuttered, the Chinese factory is running, but they are building cars that are not being purchased, and we really don't know how vehicles are going to sell in the US after we're past this pandemic. It's not unreasonable to believe that this isn't just a Q2 problem. Telsa is already trying to preserve as much capital as possible.
I understand that the overall cost of ownership for a Tesla vehicle is less than a comparable ICE vehicle, but the fact remains that the initial cost of Tesla vehicles are very much in the luxury segment. Luxury vehicles do not fair well during recessions. Anyone who went car shopping after the recession of 2008 will remember the difficulty car manufacturers had selling new cars. We also saw a decrease in the discounted value of pre-owned vehicles as the populace shopped for affordable transportation. Car manufacturers had to offer discounted financing in order to compete with existing used inventory.
Tesla was extremely fortunate to raise capital prior to the pandemic. I think the product is fantastic, but Tesla is also going to need customers to survive this. I feel like it's premature to be banking on orders that may not materialize.
There's an earnings call this month (4/22) where they'll have to share some real guidance on production and sales. That will offer investors some transparency. I don't want to be holding a Tesla position on that day.
The stock ended at $573 today... I'll send myself a reminder to check on 4/23 to see how accurate I am. I hope I'm wrong!
Why do you believe the China cars arent being sold? China is in many ways over the pandemic.
I assume that you are basing that on the FUD that was reported of only ~3k MiC Model 3s sold in March, when that was really the sales numbers for February. The March sales are actually over 10k. So they are selling just fine. (Even while the rest of the EV market in China collapses.)
your own words prove you are wrong about Tesla the company (see bold) as far as daily price movement you may be right .. but that is irrelevant
JusRelax
Active Member
I can think of 10,160 reasons that I disagree with this statement.
Tesla's China sales hit record high in March: industry association
Interesting to see a couple of $97 prints on Tesla's big bond. I feared that the Fed's focus on investment grade credits for debt purchases would unduly disadvantage Tesla, but it looks like that fear is unwarranted.
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
Pretty in-depth Model Y review from Edmunds:
Watching it now, and so far it seems pretty positive, despite the fact that I've seen some pretty bad FUD out of Edmunds before. They bothered to detail how the purchase process went (not quite touchless, but almost because they needed to pay with a paper check). And they state that they bought the car in 10 minutes.
Interesting detail is they say they paid $5,000 for FSD. Either it's an error in their math, or they've had it preordered for a long time. They've added it to their long-term fleet, which means they should make a lot of content about the car.
Watching it now, and so far it seems pretty positive, despite the fact that I've seen some pretty bad FUD out of Edmunds before. They bothered to detail how the purchase process went (not quite touchless, but almost because they needed to pay with a paper check). And they state that they bought the car in 10 minutes.
Interesting detail is they say they paid $5,000 for FSD. Either it's an error in their math, or they've had it preordered for a long time. They've added it to their long-term fleet, which means they should make a lot of content about the car.
I’m thinking the opposite. If it looks like around that time that the virus is more under control and Tesla can start back up on May 1st then Elon can give a rosy looking guidance. Considering other members have pointed out that Tesla could sell 100,000 cars in Q2 then a guidance of that would definitely shoot the stock up. Then there is battery investor day in May. I think I want to be mostly all in before that because who knows what might be unleashed.
I actually came to the forum looking for indications of exuberance due to the upturn in the stock, and this is what I read.
Thankyou.
I have my doubts too, but they are mostly FOMO. I am getting the feeling from the latest price action that we are looking at a V. The market is well ahead of the facts and I am thinking I still need to wait... sell in May etc.
Confusing times.
Thanks for your courageous post.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
James Litinsky of MP Materials was just on CNBC. He just said that they're receiving large subsidies from
the US government, but are buying "rare earth magnets etc." from Chinese mines.
(Therefore his U.S. mining company would do better if Tesla were buying from them, of course)
What tax subsidies is Tesla getting? I hope he's not referring to ZEV credits which isn't a federal thing. And AFAIK a ZEV credit is worth nothing until you sell it, at whatever price you can get for it.
He sounded like someone repeating grumpy talking points about unfair government subsidies (the BEV auto manufacturers of course being last in line for subsidies, behind ICE/fossil fuel companies).
the US government, but are buying "rare earth magnets etc." from Chinese mines.
(Therefore his U.S. mining company would do better if Tesla were buying from them, of course)
What tax subsidies is Tesla getting? I hope he's not referring to ZEV credits which isn't a federal thing. And AFAIK a ZEV credit is worth nothing until you sell it, at whatever price you can get for it.
He sounded like someone repeating grumpy talking points about unfair government subsidies (the BEV auto manufacturers of course being last in line for subsidies, behind ICE/fossil fuel companies).
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
Something to keep in mind:
The longer countries around the world have lockdowns, the more people in cities will get a glimpse of how much cleaner (and incidentally healthier) the city air is with fossil-fuel belching ICE cars.
That can only be good for Tesla.
Plus, forgetting the public and thinking of politicians and public policy experts, there is now REAL WORLD data to see proper scientific A/B comparisons on the very real quantifiable benefits of accelerating a transition to electric vehicles.
That means we can expect:
More public support for EVs
More politicians backing EVs
Which gives us, as shareholders the double-edged sword of a boost for Teslas products and a kick-in-the-balls for its ICE competitors.
The longer countries around the world have lockdowns, the more people in cities will get a glimpse of how much cleaner (and incidentally healthier) the city air is with fossil-fuel belching ICE cars.
That can only be good for Tesla.
Plus, forgetting the public and thinking of politicians and public policy experts, there is now REAL WORLD data to see proper scientific A/B comparisons on the very real quantifiable benefits of accelerating a transition to electric vehicles.
That means we can expect:
More public support for EVs
More politicians backing EVs
Which gives us, as shareholders the double-edged sword of a boost for Teslas products and a kick-in-the-balls for its ICE competitors.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
If you think you are bored now, just think about going to mars.
After a few months of zero G it will be.
Elon, are we there yet ?
After a few months of zero G it will be.
Elon, are we there yet ?
sounds bitter. are they delayed on restarting their refining? I can't imagine all this economic uncertainty helps them. Molycorp already went bankrupt in 2017.
this was from last year: California rare earths miner races to refine amid U.S.-China trade row
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