Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Looks that way in the overhead drone videos we've been getting as well.

It also looks like there's a nice big field growing stuff right over the canal / river along one border. Like maybe they could double up the land under Tesla car cultivation if they can find a mutually agreeable price for that land.


Of course, probably the smart / diversified / resilient thing to do is to get a new site at another location in china for the next site. How long do they wait before the expansion of Giga Shanghai turns into site prep at a new China site? H'mm...

What I find quite amazing is that 1 year ago Tesla was battery constrained with Pana struggling to lift output. Now Tesla has seems to have relatively easily achieved supply agreements from LG and CATL that seem to both be able to pump out as many GWh as is desired (combined they may well provide as much output as GF1 by the end of the year) - and these batteries have good enough tech to equal the best in class Pana cells that were so limited last year.

In my finance day job I'm looking at financing a company that needs cell supply in the low GWh range, and they have no problem finding cylindrical cells on the open market to meet this demand (and at a decent price).

The battery cell market appears not to be supply limited at this point in time - although that could rapidly change if EV production takes another few % of the vehicle market.

 

[EV forever]

Since leaving E*trade, I'm finally able to connect my account to my Say account and ask questions and give upvotes! Yay!

Of course now we have a poor selection, haha. A lot about the COVID-19 and it's impacts. I tossed in a question that's, if nothing else, different than the others already asked.

Hey, I posted a question very similar to the institutional question about Fremont factory upgrades! I swear I had not read those before I posted my question. Well, I only have 3 upvotes, so doubt it will go anywhere

 

[LN1_Casey]

Hey, I posted a question very similar to the institutional question about Fremont factory upgrades! I swear I had not read those before I posted my question. Well, I only have 3 upvotes, so doubt it will go anywhere

Haha, that's why people should read the questions already posed before asking their own. ;-p Then you won't flood with duplicates, and you can know if there is a gap question to be posed. Like, IDK, maybe how many Shifts GF Shanghai will have and by when Phase II will be completed.

 

[MC3OZ]

Elon Musk on Twitter

There are now 420 operational Starlink satellites...

Really strange that this came out as such a significant number

 

[EV forever]

Haha, that's why people should read the questions already posed before asking their own. ;-p Then you won't flood with duplicates, and you can know if there is a gap question to be posed. Like, IDK, maybe how many Shifts GF Shanghai will have and by when Phase II will be completed.

Actually, I did search for 'Fremont' and 'upgrades' before I posted. The institutional question does not use these words, uses 'factory' and 'changes' instead. I guess I did not read the 150 or so questions, only searched to check if anyone has asked something similar.

 

[lascavarian]

Isn’t Moore A big UAW guy though? I know he’s a democrat and all, but he might be somewhat in bed with big auto

The collapse of big auto would not good for the blue collar workers of Michigan. But a future in clean energy jobs is a durable future with promise. I have worked for the teamsters 5 yrs in my life. My pension was 100% vested but still ended up being completely worthless due to corruption within the union IMO. Unions have an important place but are not perfect. The other question is what is the place of “work” at all in a future of automation. So many interesting/tragic questions advanced by this virus...

 

[LN1_Casey]

The German market today opened right about yesterdays close, and has since been puttering between ~715 and ~722 range.

 

[jerry33]

I wonder if this "face to face" work environment is a manufacturing innovation developed by Toyota some years back to increase productivity? It makes sense that if workstations can be designed to maximize "teamwork" and make each worker feel like they working with another human on a minute-by-minute basis it could lead to better worker engagement, more accurate assembly with fewer errors and higher productivity.​

​

This is similar to the open office concept. My experience in this is that it doesn't lead to better worker engagement in technical jobs or any job where you use the phone--or worse the person across from you uses the phone. It certainly promotes viral spread.

 

[wnorris]

Federal Reserve Board - Recent balance sheet trends

Interesting to see the scale of the US Federal Reserve's support of the US economy.

Edit: Based on this I think the market will be up today despite whatever increases the US jobless report shows.

 

[22522]

Not sure everyone on here drives one, but with the Full Self Driving imaging turned on, the car shows horizontally oriented traffic signals as vertical traffic signals.

Even the left turn traffic signals show as vertical.

Even caught myself using the screen image of the signal "turning green" on the screen to accelerate the car, rather than look at the signal directly.

The implications of this are:

Tesla provides significant positive differentiation at similar price point (for the demographic that can manage to pay for the car).

I don't think the analysts, or market, recognize how close full self driving is. Or how the intuitive leaps a customer will need to make to conclude that FSD is worth purchasing are supported with collateral information that makes the promise credible.

On a related note: Tesla could help speed the transition to sustainable energy by changing their policy on FSD transfer.

The idea is Tesla early adopters in Model 3s cannot move to a Model Y, or CT, without losing the full self driving investment. This keeps early adopters in the first Tesla they bought, which helps all sorts of stats, but, importantly, keeps Tesla's off the used market and out of the hands of a significant part of the population.

If Tesla were to let owners move FSD to a new Tesla we would see more Tesla's in the demographic of a Volkswagen ID.

An order taker at the local Chick Fil-A asked how much my 3 cost. I did not answer, but she lamented that she would never own one.

A change in this one Tesla policy might change that.

I don't know how this all works out, but the stock is currently undervalued.

 

[Drax7]

Passive investing doesn't necessarily mean you don't do anything. I'm not entirely passive but I don't hedge my investments and I don't panic every time a new virus is announced. My brokerage account is up over 27% YTD which includes a large cash position of about 45% that I've been sitting on which has obviously been doing nothing but drastically lowering my overall return. Of course, it's a hedge of sorts if the market takes another dive.

Those relatively passive investors not invested in oil, airlines and travel stocks did much better than those who hold significant percentages in those sectors. I'm a big believer in reducing risk, not by selling off or hedging at the first sign of potential trouble, but by owning companies you don't mind owning during market disruptions.

I forgot who it was, but I was listening to an analyst lately who mentioned that the gas/oil component of the S&P 500 has recently shrunk from 17% of the index (or was it 13%?) to only 3%! This means the S&P 500 does not need get back to old highs for people's portfolios to make new highs as long as those people were not holding stocks in the gas/oil sector. It's a re-calibration of the index and what it means. This relates to some comments I made yesterday about the recovery of the market from COVID-19 impacts being relatively quick but some sectors (airlines and oil) will never fully recover. But I'm not particularly concerned with those sectors.

Airlines will recover, people will travel, and cheap oil is a benefit for airlines.

 

[JusRelax]

New Munro video:

 

[Harrito]

On a related note: Tesla could help speed the transition to sustainable energy by changing their policy on FSD transfer.

The idea is Tesla early adopters in Model 3s cannot move to a Model Y, or CT, without losing the full self driving investment. This keeps early adopters in the first Tesla they bought, which helps all sorts of stats, but, importantly, keeps Tesla's off the used market and out of the hands of a significant part of the population.

If Tesla were to let owners move FSD to a new Tesla we would see more Tesla's in the demographic of a Volkswagen ID.

An order taker at the local Chick Fil-A asked how much my 3 cost. I did not answer, but she lamented that she would never own one.

A change in this one Tesla policy might change that.

I don't know how this all works out, but the stock is currently undervalued.

IMO this point becomes relevant only when the demand for new Teslas drops below production levels (ie. production speed increases above the level of demand). Before that I don't think changing this policy would have any effect on Tesla sales. However, I 100% agree once we arrive at that point.

 

[JRP3]

4.4 million new unemployment applications. I guess it's a "good" signal that it's trending lower?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

<40 PMI on manufacturing? What's that figure do to your algos?

 

[MP3Mike]

The idea is Tesla early adopters in Model 3s cannot move to a Model Y, or CT, without losing the full self driving investment. This keeps early adopters in the first Tesla they bought, which helps all sorts of stats, but, importantly, keeps Tesla's off the used market and out of the hands of a significant part of the population.

How do they lose their FSD investment? It stays with the car, so they should recover most of that value when they trade it in or sell it. (Especially since Tesla isn't discounting FSD on older vehicles.)

You, also, seem to be assuming that most, if not all, Tesla owners have paid for FSD. Which is not the case.

 

[Singuy]

Come on 700! Hey MM, why don't you just sell to 700 and halt trading. Might as well.

 

[dl003]

Come on 700! Hey MM, why don't you just sell to 700 and halt trading. Might as well.

Trying to buy some calls on the cheap. Come on MMs. I don't have all day.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Which one of you nutjobs just bought the $3.3M in 2022 $1500 calls?

Edit:. Apparently it was yesterday?

 

[juanmedina]

Which one of you nutjobs just bought the $3.3M in 2022 $1500 calls?

Edit:. Apparently it was yesterday?

Probably @FrankSG ....