Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[madodel]

And me

but probably not a good idea since I am about to Join the BOD.

The delusion is strong in the Force today!

 

[madodel]

I agree, the more automakers merge, the more lines of code they'll be able to write to challenge Tesla.

Maybe Congress can pass a 2 trillion lines of code bill!

 

[woodisgood]

More competition is better. But it is crazy that people still think Tesla killers are around the corner.

That narrative officially is laid to rest with this pandemic.

The only way to kill Tesla is to kill electric, as some are pivoting to now.

 

[dl003]

Ford must really regret the hundreds of millions they gave Rivian LMAO.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

What has Rivian actually done so far?

At least they have a cheap unused factory, so they at least followed Tesla's idea there.

 

[MC3OZ]

Why do people here assume that RoboTaxi will utilize current models? Doesn't it seem much more likely that private party purchasers will consume all available production for current models? A RoboTaxi would be much more advantageous as a purpose-built vehicle. Exoskeleton. Easily sanitized interior. Battery packs sized proportionate to actual short term commute need - the vast bulk of early committed users will be urban areas, for a short time span each morning and evening - doesn't take 100 Kwh packs to service that. I see subscription based commuter vehicles in single, double and four passenger versions determine the rate charged. You will be able to lock in regular riders, or let the algorithym flex who and where the additional passengers will be on a daily basis.
I see a dedicated GF producing these vehicles in short term, ground breaking likely before 2025.
Utilizing current private passenger models is wasteful and unsuited to profitability and the desire to quickly ramp up service.

Using existing vehicles is the best way to acquire an initial fleet quickly and cheaply.

For example a off-lease Model 3 could be modified for use as a RoboTaxi buy removing the steering wheel, replacing the seats and carpets, the might need to do more to some cars, but that is the starting point.

In fact, if Tesla thinks it has finished FSD and is only waiting on regulatory approval, I can see them stockpiling off-lease Model 3s to use as loaners while they wait.

Longer term I can see 2 optimised specific RoboTaxi models as you suggest:-

• Small Urban- Made with Tesla China compact model...
• Cyber People Mover - based on Cybertruck with the tray converted into passenger seating.

While we wait for these, Model 3 does a good job of covering Small Urban..

But I could see Tesla eventually springing up a factory in the US to make Small Urban primarily for the US RoboTaxi maket with 90% of factory output being RoboTaxis.

For Cyber People Mover, Boring Co is going to need something like this for pseudo public transport applications...

For Boring Co, I think a model of stops (Small Urban) and Stations (Cyber People Mover) is what we may eventually see.
Small vehicles collect people from stops and bring them to stations where they can be organised into groups to travel on larger vehicles.
Or people simply make their own way to/from stations, which could be via RoboTaxis..

My main point is slight variations on the same model can be repurposed as RoboTaxis that is the most efficient way to achieve the desired result with minimum capex..
I think many other car companies have too many models, sometimes the differences between models are not that significant.
Around the double the current number of models may allow Tesla to service 98% of the market, it may not be worth chasing that final 2%, fewer models is always better...

 

[LJS22]

What has Rivian actually done so far?

At least they have a cheap unused factory, so they at least followed Tesla's idea there.

Rivian has quite a few problems even in a perfect world. They don’t have the charging infrastructure and they don’t do batteries. Tesla built a blueprint for an EV company and yet everyone treats them as the enemy. Nobody wants to partner with Tesla because the ultimate truth comes out that Tesla only has enough supplies for their demand.

I understand that competition is better for the consumer, but I’m not really worried about Tesla not having any. They innovate at such a high rate that you can always buy the best from them, and EV competitors having to step down opens up more supply chains for Tesla. They are going to need batteries at a high clip towards the end of the year and with delays for others I think this presents extra ammunition for Tesla to open up more production lines.

 

[powertoold]

What has Rivian actually done so far?

At least they have a cheap unused factory, so they at least followed Tesla's idea there.

I question any company trying to produce a complex product by releasing videos of stylish / hipster employees talking about the company's "vision." This is the realm of geeks and engineering.

 

[Krugerrand]

Be careful what you volunteer for.

I am not scared. I’ve obedience trained dogs and herded cats before.

 

[Krugerrand]

More competition is better. But it is crazy that people still think Tesla killers are around the corner.

People say this all the time and yet I don’t see that it applies to Tesla much; the people within seem to compete with themselves at the highest level already.

 

[ggr]

You could just make me a moderator.

I strongly suggest that you don't sound like you're volunteering... your name had been taken in vain in the past.

 

[UCF3]

Ford must really regret the hundreds of millions they gave Rivian LMAO.

I see the investment Ford made in Rivian as one of the more valuable assets Ford has. People think amazon will cancel the 100,000 van orders from Rivian, especially when they are also an investor in Rivian?

 

[sparcs]

Another one bites the dust

Ford cancels Lincoln electric vehicle program with Rivian – TechCrunch

how do you go through a development program and not have use for a skateboard platform EV? I can't see it is a a positive for Rivian since the Ford deal likely lowered their costs.

The big question I have now is whether Rivian has something they can even deliver for Amazon...

 

[Green Pete]

Manufacturing is stage 2, and we are currently in stage 1 in California. I didn't see a date for stage 2
California governor outlines state's phased reopening plan - CNNPolitics

On a personal note, looks like Ill be wearing sweatpants to "work" until 2021 based on this i think.

 

[tinm]

In protest to the mods? You may not be aware, but one moderator has stepped down (ggr) and another one (me) is taking a more laid back approach. Main reason: we were tired of being ignored about OT stuff, and I guess a lot of posters were equally tired of being bothered by mods about OT stuff. So now it’s mostly up to the posters to self moderate (with the occasional exception). Some days that works out fine, others days - today is one of them - not so much. Protesting will not change anything. It is what it is.

And Audobon? What happened to Audobon?

 

[MC3OZ]

how do you go through a development program and not have use for a skateboard platform EV? I can't see it is a a positive for Rivian since the Ford deal likely lowered their costs.

The big question I have now is whether Rivian has something they can even deliver for Amazon...

I think Amazon will back or buy Rivian, simply because they would be reluctant to purchase vehicles from Telsa.

Other EV competitors will emerge, we are likely to see more consolidation...

I don't think Tesla has any current intention to abuse a monopoly or market lead, either in EVs or RoboTaxis.
But at some stage I think governments will act to ensure their country has a viable car industry, China and Germany will have at least one domestic car maker in addition to Tesla. Japan and/or Korea will have a car maker..

If Tesla decides to abuse a monopoly position that would just make governments more likely to act, and create opportunities for the competition...

We may see a final carve up like this:-

• China 30%
• Tesla 25%
• Germany 20%
• Japan 10%
• Korea 10%
• Other 5% (Amazon Rivian?)

Tesla is at 25% of the current car market or around 20 Million cars per year, until RoboTaxis and improved longevity start to shrink the market.

My argument is I can't see a compelling reason why Tesla will not get to that 25%

 

[FrankSG]

Maybe I'm behind on this, but wasn't Q1 supposed to be a good quarter for solar roof sales? Is there not a good chance that installed roofs could make up for covid related car sales in Q1 and Q1 is great? I feel like we all frequently laud Tesla for all their products but now that those other products are going to start effecting the bottom line it's odd we aren't accounting for them

Yeah, although we don't know exact numbers, and I doubt it'll completely make up for lower vehicle deliveries compared to Q4.

But I do think Rob Maurer (and probably other analysts) forgot about Solar Roof in their predictions. I'm expecting almost the exact same automotive revenue as Rob, but ~$100-150M more in total revenue, which I assume is because he forgot about Solar Roof.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Manufacturing is stage 2, and we are currently in stage 1 in California. I didn't see a date for stage 2
California governor outlines state's phased reopening plan - CNNPolitics

On a personal note, looks like Ill be wearing sweatpants to "work" until 2021 based on this i think.

Wow. That article does not make it look good. There is no timetable at all. It makes it sound like he is willing to wait forever.

I wonder how long Wall Street will give Tesla a pass for not building cars?

 

[FrankSG]

Why do people here assume that RoboTaxi will utilize current models? Doesn't it seem much more likely that private party purchasers will consume all available production for current models? A RoboTaxi would be much more advantageous as a purpose-built vehicle. Exoskeleton. Easily sanitized interior. Battery packs sized proportionate to actual short term commute need - the vast bulk of early committed users will be urban areas, for a short time span each morning and evening - doesn't take 100 Kwh packs to service that. I see subscription based commuter vehicles in single, double and four passenger versions determine the rate charged. You will be able to lock in regular riders, or let the algorithym flex who and where the additional passengers will be on a daily basis.
I see a dedicated GF producing these vehicles in short term, ground breaking likely before 2025.
Utilizing current private passenger models is wasteful and unsuited to profitability and the desire to quickly ramp up service.

I've had similar thoughts for a while.

Currently vehicles have to serve multiple purposes. They may be often used by a single occupant for commuting, but they also need to be able to take entire families on the occasional road trip, and be able to transport a bicycle or a new piece of IKEA furniture.

Robotaxis can be far more specialized, and therefore more efficient vehicles. I'd imagine 90%+ of robotaxi trips will have 1 or 2 occupants, so it's very inefficient to drive them around in big vehicles with 5, 6, or even 7 seats.

In my opinion, the ideal robotaxi would be able to transport 1 or 2 human passengers during peak hours, and be able to seamlessly transition to transporting cargo during off-peak hours. I'd imagine Tesla is already working on designs for such a vehicle, or at least some sort of 2-seater vehicle that can be used as a cheap robotaxi.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Apr 28, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $776.59
Volume: 15,240,956
Traded: $11,836,043,338.31 ($11.84 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.03%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 47.2% (44th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 55.4% (59th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)

Comment: "Bear raid at Open; Sun rises in the East"