Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

OT

If you recall, a few weeks ago I posted in here about how I tried to get a friend to buy a Tesla ever since my first S in 2013. And how he finally warmed to the 3 in 2019 and then I kept persisting until just recently he not only decided to go for it, but spend more, on a Y!

Well today was delivery day. He told me the Y they gave him had such bad fit-and-finish quality he refused to accept it.

This is mortifying. Tesla, how many brand-new customers are going to be put through this negative experience before you fix the quality control problems at Fremont?

They told him they’d have another Y for him tomorrow. I sure hope it’s acceptable.

You know Elon. Tell him.

 

[Fred42]

That's great news. But let's not ignore the downside to this news:

That means I can no longer in good conscience boast to petrol-heads that my EV runs on clean American coal!

Clean American coal provided by God, according to the billboards.

 

[Krugerrand]

I don't understand half of what you just wrote, but alright! Sounds good!

I will translate: Hang onto your hat, the sugar show is just getting started.

 

[Krugerrand]

OT

Here's a Beyond Burger w/ Tikka Masala Veggies, Mom's Cilantro Chutney, and Sriracha that I've been iterating on.

View attachment 560270

Imma stick with a @Chunky Jr. burrito and cleanse my palette with an elderberry infused Romanian Sambuca.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Frankfurt Tl0 turned out drop 20 euro. does this bother you? Is there any bad news?

 

[JustSaying]

Sorry, I had to disagree. IME as net worth rises there tends to be more or less equal anxiety as there was negative results. Personally I have lived with both very negative net worth and very positive. Further I have started businesses that failed and started ones that made substantial profits. Today I am in positive territory and have zero debt. By most people's reckoning I should not worry at all. 'It just ain't true'. I spend at least eight hours a day poring over financial decisions and working constantly to optimize risk/reward. Everyone I personally know who si as well off as I am or more so still obsesses over financial decisions. In my career I have known a few billionaires and a few indigents. Really there is not too much difference, despite the world inciting that there is.

Factually one would think that poor people would worry about money more than wealthy ones. Factually poor people and wealthy people do spend money very differently, and that makes each tend to think the other type does not worry much about money. After all many wealthy ones imagine that laziness is the cause of poverty. Many poor ones think the wealthy ones were just lucky or cheated somehow.

On the other hand buying an island might end out making a profit but more often 'turns a large fortune into a small one'. I was very, very lucky on that score. The people who bought my island did not end out so well, nor did the company from which I bought it.
TSLA is certainly similar in that high volatility tends to produce euphoria and panic, depending. I have never sold a TSLA share since 2013 and do not plan todo so. Still euphoria and panic do persist. NOTE: I am not a gambler in any traditional sense. Still anybody who has invested in Brazil, the Bahamas, the UAE and Yemen among others, must be a gambler of sorts.

. " Personally I have lived with both very negative net worth and very positive. Further I have started businesses that failed and started ones that made substantial profits. Today I am in positive territory and have zero debt. By most people's reckoning I should not worry at all. 'It just ain't true'. I spend at least eight hours a day poring over financial decisions and working constantly to optimize risk/reward"
Sounds like your working your butt off. Thank you.
I am not sure how old you are but I did the same, now at 70 I ladder 5 years of our estimated expenses in CDs and dividend funds , put the rest in the S&P 500, and other individual stocks that I like to follow (including Tesla that now "holy crap" is 1/3 of the portfolio ) .

 

[Tim S]

Why do we think CT will be built in China? Unless China is a big market for large pickup trucks (which I am not aware of), it does not make sense to build there and then import back to the USA.

China is a big market for everything.

China Population (2020) - Worldometer

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA has grown 331.63%
MSFT has grown 364.55% over the same period.

Lol, let's try it again with Mkt Cap instead of share price:

TSLA (5 yrs) $221.18B / $33.43B = 6.6162x
MSFT (5 yrs) $1,567.99B / $355.02B = 4.4166x​

So, Tesla's Mkt Cap has grown at 1.50x the rate of Microsoft over the past 5 years.

I think that TSLA will grow at a faster rate in the next 5 yrs now that we are kicking the doubters and haters to the curb, along with their negative effect on the Market. The tide is turning for Tesla. Tesla now owns the EV space; other automakers are just renting it.

Cheers!

 

[MP3Mike]

I think this is a good sign: Tesla is making push toward fleet vehicles as cost of operation reaches tipping point - Electrek

Tesla is holding webinars with fleet managers to explain how a Tesla has better TCO than their ICE competitors, so we might start seeing more fleet sales. Just tapping in to more of those market segments that they have ignored up to this point.

 

[ggr]

Are you sure on that? (I know nothing other than these results)
What Are The Tax Implications of Covered Calls? - Fidelity



You might be thinking of what happens if they are exercised:
How Does a Covered Call Strategy Increase Your Taxes?


Other technicalities related to dividends.
The tax impact of selling calls - InvestmentNews

What you quoted appears to agree with me and my understanding...

Edit: maybe confusion between "selling" and "closing"? That's why I'm usually careful to say "writing a covered call", except this time I wasn't... sorry.

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

What are they going to buy TSLA with? They need to sell all of the soon to be demoted stock and some of every other stock to free up capital.

I specifically wrote 'buy stock in some other account' so you may disagree but your question was already answered.

I assume most can find enough to buy a few shares somewhere. Maybe in other funds that are not following indexes? Maybe they have internal funds exactly for stuff like this. Obviously not every fund is gonna be able to front buy every stock they'll need fully.

Vanguard 500 index fund has $500 billion in the fund. They are gonna need something like $4 billion in Tesla stock on inclusion day. If everybody wait until 2-7 days (depending on who you ask) before inclusion happens they risk paying much more than necessary. In all likelihood whoever buys last is gonna pay the most.

I think a not insignificant part of the recent run up is fund owners already starting to accumulate shares.

 

[ggr]

Business Insider is estimating the 22nd of July for the Q2 Earnings Call.

Tesla Calendar | Markets Insider

Just kind of mapping out my obsessive compulsive itinerary. And no, it’s not a disorder, if I’m enjoying it.

That would fit the pattern for non-annual-quarters.

 

[StealthP3D]

I appreciate Troy's numbers but like you I find the method quite strange (upping the estimate every month till the end of the quarter).

I guess he does it that way to get more exposure/to stay relevant in social media. If he only posted once every three months (end of quarter) only a few fans would remember him.

I doubt he does it that way for posterity, it's just how his method developed. I think it's a flawed method (better suited to estimating the speed of early ramps of new models because his estimates are based on delivery data. I think it would be more accurate to estimate production of mature models starting with what we know about production capabilities and adjusting for any clues along the way.

 

[dl003]

I think B Day will provide the perfect cover for the bearish analysts to change their ratings. Changing ratings on quarterly performance is the equivalence of admitting they were idiots. New battery technology, though, will give them a chance to start fresh and join the club.

 

[PeterJA]

Frankfurt Tl0 turned out drop 20 euro. does this bother you? Is there any bad news?

No.

 

[printf42]

Tesla doesn’t advertise, because it gets all kinds of free advertising like this one:

I know, I know, that’s Kimbal, but still Tesla didn’t pay, right?

 

[Beltsbear]

I think this is a good sign: Tesla is making push toward fleet vehicles as cost of operation reaches tipping point - Electrek

Tesla is holding webinars with fleet managers to explain how a Tesla has better TCO than their ICE competitors, so we might start seeing more fleet sales. Just tapping in to more of those market segments that they have ignored up to this point.

This makes sense. Tesla has a lot of model 3 capacity and this will help move them without discounting. In the chart shown in the article they have a five year old model 3 at a resale of $18k. I think they will go for more, making the cost of ownership even lower. A lot of companies should switch to fleets with the 3.

 

[phnix]

Tesla CyberTruck Officially Opens Reservation For China Market

Tesla CyberTruck Officially Opens Reservation For China Market

This is NOT new at all. The Chinese reservation page has been there since the first day of unveil. The reporter just happened to see the page yesterday and thought it was new.

 

[MP3Mike]

This makes sense. Tesla has a lot of model 3 capacity and this will help move them without discounting. In the chart shown in the article they have a five year old model 3 at a resale of $18k. I think they will go for more, making the cost of ownership even lower. A lot of companies should switch to fleets with the 3.

Yep, by adding capacity in China they have freed up capacity in Fremont. That will again happen when Giga Berlin starts popping out Model 3s in a couple years. (Or earlier.)

 

[Mike Smith]

Elon was in Tulsa today meeting with the Governor..

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1279262905410568193