Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UkNorthampton]

ok guys, I've wanted to do this to our garage since I saw others do it back in 2013. I wanted a red wall, but the wifey said only black.....We've been checking off a lot of house projects that we had on our list during our time at home due to COVID-19 and this is the last one for now. After 10 years, the walls had become dirty and worn down. Took me two and half days and two thumb blisters getting the logo on the wall, but it was well worth it!

I put this in this thread because Tesla truly has been an investment - money, time, research, discussion with others.....etc.

Plenty of room to display the short shorts in a picture frame. Adding a little flash of red. Class.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think both of you missed a key part of what I mentioned. Tesla has to become a boring stock before you implement this strategy. As the old saw goes, you always buy high volatility and sell low volatility. I don't think Tesla volatility implied by options was ever lower than 30% after it passed $30.

Tesla become a boring stock? I think you have the wrong company!

I am not a fan of strategies to skim small profits while risking missing out on large gains. Sure, the human brain is wired in such a way that this feels like a good idea but it's penny-wise and pound foolish.

I am a fan of lying in wait for the big score. That's why the old adage "Time in the market beats timing the market" holds a lot of wisdom.

 

[Todd Burch]

MMD came a little early today, but similar pattern as yesterday. Strong dip soon after open to attempt to get people selling...getting bought back up.

 

[X Fan]

This assumes that Tesla's growth is currently constrained by cash, but I don't believe it is. To be honest, I don't even think it was in January during the last cap raise. I reckon they only raised money because of the high SP and upcoming uncertainty surrounding COVID-19.

I can't remember exactly which earnings call it was (probably Q3 or Q4), but I think somebody asked about why bother with profitability and not just keep going for max growth. I believe Elon made some comments about talent being a bottleneck.

Tesla currently has like $8-9B cash on hand? Probably well over $10B by the end of the year? I think batteries and (engineering) talent are bigger bottlenecks to Tesla's growth than cash at this point in time. This is where the design and R&D centers in China, Berlin, and Israel will come in.

Don't forget Tesla can also use lines of credit to build additional factories, like they're doing in China. And the FCA credits deal is likely being used to (partially) fund Giga Berlin.

Agree with your post...I would add that the Cap Raise was important to the extent that it took away a base argument of the shorts that TSLA would run out of cash. Plus, that well-timed raise made the Covid crisis much less risky for investors and has contributed to the significant run we have just seen.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

That's cool that you have the original but the two Roadsters are related in name only. I was pretty excited when I saw my first Roadster on a Washington State Ferry in 2016. OK, I probably sighted a couple others but they were just zipping by.


I hear you regarding the Roadster II. If you don't need a Roadster II, it might be more fun to buy 3-5 Model 3's or Model Y's and give them away to people you know and could make good use of them. Or treat yourself to a Plaid Model S or X and gift one car to someone who needs it. Check the IRS gift rules first. It's never fun to pay a tax when you are trying to help humanity.

On the other hand, the Roadster II is just too insane for words.

Where do i sign up for a Model Y giveaway?? Im number 1 on the list!

 

[Krugerrand]

Two quick analyst notes including Adam haha.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas raises $TSLA PT from $650 to $740 writing: "Over the past week, the company is adding to its valuation an amount roughly equal to Ford’s entire market cap on a daily basis. We’re struggling to play catch-up here with the valuation..."

Somebody needs to tell Adam that if he simply puts a damn 1 in front of his PT, voila! he’s caught up.

 

[MP3Mike]

How many shares are you using? The exact number of shares outstanding is in the 10-Q report. And for which date did you allocate the 3.3M shares from this Spring's Cap raise?

Thanks, I guess that is my problem I was using the GOOGLEFINANCE function to get the number of shares but it doesn't support returning historical data for things like market cap and number of shares.

 

[Todd Burch]

Lots of volatile fighting in the $1390 to $1400 range this morning.

 

[Krugerrand]

As I suspected (then was inclined to think differently according to AH craziness), we’re taking a breather today.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

A MMD! Haven't seen that in days!

 

[strago13]

5 million shares traded in 25 minutes. Has to be some kind of record, right?

 

[Twooz]

As I suspected (then was inclined to think differently according to AH craziness), we’re taking a breather today.

Market has been open for 26 minutes

 

[Bet TSLA]

Not feeling any desperation from the shorts this morning. Looks like it will be a relatively quiet day. Time is on our side. Margin calls continue to come in and the pressure increases.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Market has been open for 26 minutes

Yeah, that was just 'filling the gap' to yesterday's close. The real show starts at 10:00 ET when the big boyz start buying. Shortzies want to discourage a ralley by driving down the SP before it runs up.

EDIT: And as advertized, they jumped on it hard at exactly 10:00:00 ET (SP -$15 in 15 sec). So let's see if the 'tutes wanna soak this up at this price.

Cheers!

 

[Todd Burch]

What is this red stuff that occasionally appears on the chart?

 

[Todd Burch]

So I'm not sure I understand the impetus for people taking profits right now. I mean, for some who are now gloriously wealthy beyond their wildest dreams, I get it...but aren't there some guaranteed positive catalysts coming up in the next few months that make it worth staying in? I guess I see way more upside in the next few months than any risk of downside.

 

[Rammstein]

You missed your chance to notice the white Model 3 parked right across from the entrance of the Wild Chicken! They are everywhere!

I get it. Your show is about food. OK.

Haha yeah I did notice it. My car is featured in a pizza video I have coming up. I let my buddy drive it. Afterwards he said he really has to buy a Tesla.

 

[dww12]

A MMD! Haven't seen that in days!

Our MMD is now $100. That’s some serious progress.

 

[Todd Burch]

So we've had an almost $100 point swing already today. TSLA doesn't know what it wants to do...

 

[jerry33]

Has me wondering...

• The original GF1 is only, what, 30% built.... and there’s been no external indication of any major expansion there.
• Lots of new EV competition coming out this year and next.
• We’ve seen Tesla cutting deals with two major battery suppliers, CATL and LG... that the competing OEMs need.

1. The labour pool is not what was originally expected. No point in building out when there's no one to run the equipment.
2. I'll believe it when I see it. Most manufacturers have cancelled or pushed back their EV plans.
3. I'd guess it would be more that Tesla needs all the batteries that it can get. While that might also starve the competition (what there is), it's a side effect, not the main reason.