Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Knightshade]

IMO Supercharging is not a big problem, paid Supercharging and the use of solar/batteries will make it closer to self-funding..

Eventually I can see that... and certainly in more developing world type places like India where you maybe can't just get a huge power pull to any potential supercharger location that's gonna be a huge boon to the rollout...

Right now though AFAIK Tesla remains battery-limited just on building cars (and solar limited too on the energy side).

I've said many times that Model Y will help with service expansion, simply because selling 2 X can fund 2 X service centres meaning more choice of location

Model 3 more than 2xed annual sales and they didn't fund 2x service centers with that.... (in fact that's kinda how we got to the situation I'm discussing )

getting 2 X trained and professional staff is the hard part...

FWIW- every actual service tech I have ever dealt with has been excellent

Polite, professional, very competent. Nothing at all to say about any of em that's not glowingly positive.


it's the scheduling/parts ordering folks who seem to not be able to find their ass with 2 hands and a map.

Which is weird because you'd think they'd be the easier folks to find competent examples of.

 

[MC3OZ]

Model 3 more than 2xed annual sales and they didn't fund 2x service centers with that.... (in fact that's kinda how we got to the situation I'm discussing )

Yes, this kind of transition is difficult, but it gets easier overtime...

Battery Day should solve the battery problem, some sites need Supercharger V3, Batteries, and ideally some solar..

Solar is the cheapest way to make electricity, up to now Telsa has had to try to spend money efficiently, when paid Supercharging makes some money, investing that money in Supercharging expansion is easy.

Overall you are right to highlight the issues, but Tesla are well aware of the need to expand Supercharging and Service, their operating leverage as they sell more cars will help fund the expansion... R&D, SG&A and some other overhead costs will not scale with car volumes, improvements in a number of areas will improve margins.. in simple terms they should have a bit more money they can direct towards expansion...

Currently factory expansion is a high priority, but as more factories are built, revenue increases, there should be more money for all kinds of expansion..

 

[Dutchie]

Not like all the people who heard our story and bought nothing. I've got some seriously regretful friends right now that I've been preaching to since 2016. One just asked me how to buy options. Some said "I should buy some", but never did. Others still deny it's happening. Well... that just happened, and I don't regret a single decision. In late 2019, I was still talking about cashing in when it broke through $300. Never in my wildest dreams would I have expected such a continuous stream of new technology out of Tesla to keep justifying further engagement to this day. Ya I pulled out a bit... so it's a girl not a boy. Nothing wrong with that.

That is it. One alway say: "I should have bought more" or I should have put everything in call options or put an extra mortgage on my house and bought call options from that!" But you know what that only means that you were right and that your strategy worked.
I bought a mere 20 stocks when it was in the low $300. For me it was quit a some of money because I am not an investor. Now that is almost $30K and I am jubelend about it! Could I have invested more? Of course but hey my strategy worked (so far) and proud to be right!

 

[dakh]

Would love some opinions from anyone willing on what I should do.

I have two 6/17/22 leaps. One is $1,015 and one is $1,100. I'm up $61k on one and $57k on the other.

My option goal was to acquire more shares, but I don't have $100k+ I can blow by exercising them, so I am thinking of selling one and taking half the money and buying shares, then buying another another leap with the other half.

I'm looking at a 9/17/21 $2,000 call, which looks like it'd cost me about $28k. If I sold the $1,100 call for about $62k, that'd leave me with about $34,000 to buy shares.

I'd then have:

- 9/17/21 $2,000 call
- 6/17/22 $1,015
- 24ish new shares purchased
- My existing shares

I know it's my decision, but I'd like to bounce this idea off some other people with option experience.

It seems like a good time to sell, buy shares and another call.

Just curious if anyone has any thoughts.

So in effect you want to trade off your risk profile from somewhat medium risk concentrated position, to one with a mix of low risk and high risk positions. Why is that?

 

[StealthP3D]

But there were 2 issues of incompetent communication and poor logistics.

it's just stunning how little reading comprehension goes on here.

Wrong thread. Please take it somewhere else.

 

[Buckminster]

I wrote this 15 months ago:

I am more and more convinced that nearly all the Tesla moves can be attributed to the goal of getting Tesla Network running. When seen through that lens, the closure of stores makes perfect sense. Once FSD is legal in let's say China, Tesla Network will launch and local business owners will buy as many SR M3s as they can. Everyone will be printing money. Stores would not be required at all. This could be 2 years away.

If in the short term, additional awareness is required - I would imagine that Tesla will use pop-up stores - just a week at each location potentially. My Model S test drive was organised at a hotel and worked really well.

In answer to several discussions ongoing at the moment, you need to fast forward a few years:

1. Visible superchargers are irrelevant. Robotaxi availability, cleanliness and cost per mile will win out.
2. Great service centre experiences (and more service centres) are irrelevant. Robotaxi availability, cleanliness and cost per mile will win out. Rangers will increase productivity - especially as prognostics improves.
3. Tesla paying dividends. If Tesla have surplus cash, they won't sell you a car, they will run them directly as robotaxis.

Most decisions Elon takes on Tesla is laser focussed on robotaxis dominating UBER - forcing them to go 100% EV to keep up. This is the single best outcome that meets the mission.

 

[Jack6591]

Tesla is not an automotive company, nor a tech company. Tesla is an energy intelligence company.

In the simplest terms, Tesla builds intelligence into the generation, storage, and use of energy.

Tesla is intelligent energy.

 

[Compton]

Tesla hasn't installed any charges that would be able to automatically connect the charging plug with the car port. Neither has there been any mention about such chargers during the last couple of years. Isn't this strange if FSD really was only a few years away? Perhaps someone could ask about this at the shareholder meeting.

 

[MC3OZ]

I wrote this 15 months ago:

In answer to several discussions ongoing at the moment, you need to fast forward a few years:

1. Visible superchargers are irrelevant. Robotaxi availability, cleanliness and cost per mile will win out.
2. Great service centre experiences (and more service centres) are irrelevant. Robotaxi availability, cleanliness and cost per mile will win out. Rangers will increase productivity - especially as prognostics improves.
3. Tesla paying dividends. If Tesla have surplus cash, they won't sell you a car, they will run them directly as robotaxis.

Most decisions Elon takes on Tesla is laser focussed on robotaxis dominating UBER - forcing them to go 100% EV to keep up. This is the single best outcome that meets the mission.

Some lag in the use of Robotaxis is possible, some people will prefer to retain private car ownership..

I agree 100% on Robotaxi availability, cleanliness and cost per mile will win out.

But using off lease cars and mixing in some use of privately owned cars are great ways of lowering fleet cost, especially initially..

Each Robotaxi will take around 10 cars off the road, and we need to factor in speed of adoption.. people are used to owning their own car, for some it will be a status symbol and people are emotionally attached to their car.. That doesn't mean they will not use a Robotaxi, just that they may want to keep a car...

Factor in a Robotaxi cost of say $1 per mile, profit say 50 cents per mile, the question is how many miles does each Robotaxi drive per year?

Build out the fleet ahead of the demand curve, you simply split the miles between more cars making less per car..

So I see a mix of privately owned and Robotaxis for at least the next 5 years, Tesla can do both, cash flow is much better when say 50% of vehicle production is sold...

What may happen is Telsa may eventually only lease most cars, using them as Robotaxis at the end of the lease.. that is the only form of zero sales that seems likely.

 

[Dutchie]

Q2 deliveries leading to Q2 profits put the stock on a higher pedestal than ever before.

IMO, the only possible way TSLA tumbles back to the 800s again is macros plummet like a millstone or something really negative happens in China. Otherwise, a chance to re-buy in the $800s is pure fantasy.

I'm not saying $2000 is just around the corner (i.e, Q2 good results + scarcity caused by S&P500 inclusion), but it's quite possible TSLA is on a bull run that lasts another 6-12 months. This could be the breakout Cathy Wood talked about last year. Keep in mind Battery Day and blowout Q3, Q4 results are yet to come. There may be other pleasant surprises at the shareholder meeting.

At the same time, I understand the hesitation to buy right now after it closed at $885 just a month ago. Just saying your next chance to "buy the dip" could be much higher than the current $1390. Looked what happened to the people who wanted to see the $500s again while TSLA was in the $700s.

Don't forget something that has not been talked about lately here and that is feature complete FSD in two to four months. I know Elon has been off in his timing but her has been getting better at it lately. People doubt Tesla achieving this but fact is Karpathy et.al. have been very confident, as is Elon. Last years Investor's Autonomous day was a bit of a let down for investors as they just could not grasp what was going on. I have had a gut feeling that we are up for an "awe moment" when everything will be released in a couple of months. Nothing but absolutely nothing of the potential of FSD/Robotaxi has been build into the share price so far.

 

[Dutchie]

Don't forget something that has not been talked about lately here and that is feature complete FSD in two to four months. I know Elon has been off in his timing but her has been getting better at it lately. People doubt Tesla achieving this but fact is Karpathy et.al. have been very confident, as is Elon. Last years Investor's Autonomous day was a bit of a let down for investors as they just could not grasp what was going on. I have had a gut feeling that we are up for an "awe moment" when everything will be released in a couple of months. Nothing but absolutely nothing of the potential of FSD/Robotaxi has been build into the share price so far.

Just wrote this when I saw that messages about Robotaxi was posted while I was writing the message. Talk about coincidence.

BTW OT I sat in a Model Y for the first time today. What an amazing roomy car is that! Was really impressed! Not that it can replace my Model X but wow! They are going to sell a lot of these, especially if they bring out a single motor variant.

 

[MP3Mike]

Don't forget something that has not been talked about lately here and that is feature complete FSD in two to four months. I

It hasn't been talked about because that isn't what he said. Feature complete FSD isn't coming in 2-4 months. The re-write with possibly smart reverse summon is what will be coming.

 

[SO16]

It hasn't been talked about because that isn't what he said. Feature complete FSD isn't coming in 2-4 months. The re-write with possibly smart reverse summon is what will be coming.

And even FSD isn’t the robotaxi network. That’s quite a while past FSD.

Elon said that there would be a million FSD capable cars on the road by end of this year. Doesn’t mean they will be running FSD or robotaxi. I do think Cathie Wood is right about Tesla launching an Uber like service in the interim until Robotaxi and the supercharger network is fully automated. Will take time for regulators to catch up.

 

[MC3OZ]

And even FSD isn’t the robotaxi network. That’s quite a while past FSD.

Elon said that there would be a million FSD capable cars on the road by end of this year. Doesn’t mean they will be running FSD or robotaxi. I do think Cathie Wood is right about Tesla launching an Uber like service in the interim until Robotaxi and the supercharger network is fully automated. Will take time for regulators to catch up.

Worst case scenario, an attendant to plug in cars at Superchargers isn't a deal breaker.

The Uber like service may happen as that is mostly just software, Tesla can take a lower cut, just to give Uber some competition and establish a Tesla Network brand... Main advantage, building customer loyalty and brand awareness, before launching Robotaxis.

The in car camera may give customers and drivers a feeling of more security...

I can't actually think of a disadvantage for the Uber like service, a lot of the software is needed anyway for Robotaxis... Critics might spin it as a negative and say Robotaxis will never work, but they are already saying that.

 

[Mo City]

Don't forget something that has not been talked about lately here and that is feature complete FSD in two to four months. I know Elon has been off in his timing but her has been getting better at it lately. People doubt Tesla achieving this but fact is Karpathy et.al. have been very confident, as is Elon. Last years Investor's Autonomous day was a bit of a let down for investors as they just could not grasp what was going on. I have had a gut feeling that we are up for an "awe moment" when everything will be released in a couple of months. Nothing but absolutely nothing of the potential of FSD/Robotaxi has been build into the share price so far.

IMO, robotaxi potential should NOT be built into the share price, for good reason. I say that as a major TSLA bull who is very skeptical it ever happens.

That said, if Tesla pulls a rabbit out of their hat, oh brother! Just releasing "feature complete" FSD that demonstrates true FSD is legit possible with the current sensor suite would cause the biggest one-day explosion in TSLA history by an order of magnitude.

For me it's just a nice thought, nothing more. However, I must admit 2020.24.6 has given me pause to reconsider.

 

[CorneliusXX]

@truth_tesla (Tesla Facts on Twitter, aka FactChecking on TMC) agrees with my $10Trillion figure: See Tweet #5 in this thread: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1277321864101138433


I couldn't find a list of all S&P 500 Index funds, only the top several. That handful alone added up to about $3Trillion of net assets, so I believe the total number is higher.

Tesla Facts added to that yesterday: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1280244584812023808


So, my $100Billion guess should have been "only" $81Billion. And change.

Which he thinks brings us to a potential feedback loop: https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1280254379740876800

Just to dumb this whole concept down a little, am I right in thinking that the only reason to expect an outsized move in Tesla is because so much of Tesla's float is held by high conviction longs and insiders that only a small % of the float is available.? Or is it because it has grown so much already before being included in the S&P500

At a super simple level. if there are $X Trillion of index tracking funds and the total S&P500 has a market cap of $Y Trillion, shouldn't any stock in the index be owned the same amount of X/Y% by the index tracking funds?

To continue the thought and to use an extreme example. If the index committee decided to include a company with a market cap of $100, wouldn't the trackers still have to purchase the same X/Y% of the company?

 

[Buckminster]

New thread:
TSLA Stock Split

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I'm not sure how that addresses the fact they they miss their goals every year, by large percentages, on supercharge buildouts.

What new information would cause them to decide to NOT build thousands of stalls they said they would for that year- and then state an even HIGHER target they end up ALSO missing by a mile the year after? Then doing it yet again the year after that?




No- it's setting a goal and then failing to spend the money to achieve it. Year after year.

But if there IS another explanation for it- what is it?






Or they just didn't spend it at all to reduce costs.

Which appears to be the actual case.

I don't even blame them for doing it- it was touch and go for a while, and they needed to show financial progress and eventual profits.

So deciding to under-invest in things like service and charging is something I'm totally on board with being a rational decision by Tesla during the 3 and eventual Y ramps.


But that service and charging gap, which gets larger and larger each year, is not sustainable to keep increasing every year into the future.

So eventually Tesla will need to spend significantly more $ than they have been to close that gap.

THAT is the thing I'm asking about.




Right.

And I'm asking what that looks like- financially.

How much is that bridge likely to cost- because I don't THINK that's a genuinely insiginficant number- but I haven't seen anyone discussing future growth and cashflow address it.







...by actively deciding not to spend money on something.

Which, again, I have -no issue with them having decided to do for years-

But they can't CONTINUE to underfund those things at that rate for ever.


It's like people are getting so mad at what they imagined my question to be saying about the past they're ignoring that it's asking a completely reasonable financial question about the future.

I really shouldn't be responding to this, but it seems you're not satisfied with everyone else's answer.

Bet-Tesla said it best, "They know exactly what stresses on the existing infrastructure they are seeing."

Tesla stopped providing supercharger deployment goals after 2018. Not because they didn't want to be wrong again, but because they've solved the congestion issues (except for holidays in california) by implementing idle charges and not giving free supercharges for life. With those changes alone, the existing superchargers were able to service many more travelers per station. There was no longer a need to double the number of supercharger sites in a year. Spending only what you have to is just prudent capital expenditure.

Same with service, the issues are triaged so that urgent issues are addressed right away, while non-urgent like HW3 upgrades (which is ONLY NEEDED for the FSD features) can be scheduled at a later date. Parts shortages isn't a service center issue, but a supplier/logistics issue. Having more service centers isn't going to improve the supply of those parts, and Tesla should be able to see this. Which is why Tesla built out that parts warehouse in Lathrop, which barely finished construction last quarter (job postings for a parts handler barely got posted in Feb '20)! So if parts availability improves, it would prove out the thesis that the service center growth is where it needs to be.

 

[Ocelot]

Let me refresh your memory what his personal complaints were:

Mine has been in 3 times... Once was to correct a delivery issue (same day as delivery, so at least I didn't have to wait).... second was to replace a windshield since nobody but Tesla around here does Tesla windshield replacement.... third was the HW3 upgrade.

I've also had 2 ranger visits (one to deliver and program a keycard since they forgot to actually include a second one at delivery and had to order one, and this was back when a tesla tech had to program them) and once for the charge pin recall and to address a rattle on the seatbelt attachment.

The second ranger visit took 2 tries BTW- first time they "confirmed" the appointment the night before via text, for 8AM the following morning. Then 30 minutes before 8AM the tech texts me saying he has no idea why this is on his schedule as he's in an entirely different city 100 miles away the entire day doing other work and he'd be in my area the following week instead. (Again- tesla is pretty incompetent at logistics stuff).

Complaint 1 caused the OP to um...not be put out.
Complaint 2 is somehow Tesla's fault that a windshield got damaged and Tesla was the only business in the OP's area that could replace it?
Complaint 3 was a FREE upgrade, which includes FREE make his car better for as long as he owns the car.
Complaint 4 was about an extra keycard, which got delivered to the OP at his home. OP not put out.
Complaint 5 was also addressed at the OP's home. OP not put out.

Gee, yeah. What a horrible, awful experience all of which could be rectified by 25 more service centers and superchargers within a 1 mile radius of the OP's home.

My initial post stands. His post stated facts, and his feelings. Your post superimposes your feelings and experiences onto someone else.

for instance, I have had ranger service. Yet I need to take a half day off work so the car could be there. Just because they come to you does not mean it’s magic. Unless of course you work from home. Just saying it came across as a put down on character and how you “see things is” better. I see the likes and loves etc, so know I am in minority opinion, yet prefer when we shy away from the personal stuff.

 

[RobStark]

The average American driving 12k-15k miles isn't giving up his Ford Escape or Toyota RAV-4 for Robotaxi at $1 per mile. Cathie Wood/ARK is projecting $2.50 per mile.