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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Adding 1 factory a year won't get them to their planned production levels though.

Tesla's currently intends is to build fewer, larger plants. From the 2020 Q1 Conference Call:

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director for Investor Relations

Okay. The next question from retail investors. When will you announce the next Giga? How many Gigas, you have planned for the next five years?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

I think we will announce the next Giga possibly as soon as a month. We may not -- as soon as next month. This is not a prediction, just saying. That's -- that could happen. It will certainly be within three months and possibly one month. And that would be in the US. So as for how many will be in five years, I'm not -- I don't know right now what that number would be. I guess, several more than there are today. But I'm not sure, what exactly it would be in five years, but some number more than today.

Zachary J. Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

I'll also add that our Gigas have gotten bigger.

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

It could arguably -- it could start being called Tera.

Zachary J. Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, with multiple products as well. And so the absolute number of Giga factories, we may ultimately build might be less, but each one is larger. And that's under our belief that just significant efficiencies by having as much as possible, and similar product lines under the same roof, and as much vertical integration as possible all in one facility.
 
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Then there is this:
Chongqing city district says it discussed projects with Tesla
That report was caught by Electrek and largely regurgitated.
There is substantial logic in building a factory here oriented towards smaller vehicles (the new China designed ones, maybe) and probably for export. Personally I think it is very likely to be devoted to multiple vehicles on a single small platform, probably using a single aluminum casting for the skateboard using technology already developed for Model Y. That would allow very cheap, very durable and simple manufacturing.

Without departing from obvious choices I suggest they'll have a small sedan type, an SUV and a van. Those three would constitute the vast majority of vehicle sales in urban areas of Asia and Europe.
The Shanghai facility will continue with the large cars, Model 3 and Model Y.

Those new vehicles will be suited for 'world cars' so will probably be built in new factories coming in Europe (almost certainly Eastern within EU), Brazil and India. By producing in these three they'll have local production in the largest markets for these vehicles.

The major unknown is how Tesla Energy products will be built to cope with the highly probable Autobidder-induced demand. With a UK and EU effective utility license in hand they'll face potentially massive demand from all the areas currently building unprecedented wind power capacity. With the UK going months without coall use, Benelux+Denmark and Norway moving rapidly towards wind dominance the present need for massive storage and highly flexible grid services is nearing an emergency. One way or another Tesla needs very, very rapid production and support in these products. I strongly believe that new facilities in both the EU and UK are imminent.

As usual the markets and most of us ignore that emerging giant business. Even after South Australia proved the entire scope for Autobidder and storage (distributed and central) plus copious documentation almost everyone outside of public utilities has been oblivious. Of course Tesla has not really tried to explain this at a non-technical level but even provided Autobidder detail in a tech conference. Of course, a handful of Supercharger sites already have the storage in place to join in grid services, and we should see every practical Supercharger site in the future with colocated storage, but that will happen when there is enough battery supply for direct utility commercial and residential supply. Not too far away will be large storage located in factory and store-service center sites.

So, the future of the global large scale vehicle business will be small, probably never to be sold in North America.Tesla Energy is on the verge of gigantic global expansion, within a few years delivering on Elon's repeated assertion that TE will be larger than vehicles.

The prospect of these developments is why I am deeply long on TSLA. Cybertruck, Models 3 and Y are indeed big deals. Together they will be dwarfed by what is soon to be evident.

As usual, please do your own research. FWIW, everything I have said in this post I think has already been disclosed, albeit quite cryptically in parts.
 
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Maybe this whole week of trading is a headfake. Consolidation, max pain...then we continue movement after (or soon before) ER next week.
It is, you can tell by watching level 2 and just the way it trades in general. It's being manipulated downward and will probably pop hard by ER

If you're paying attention, this game becomes pretty transparent. Last Friday the game failed and that's why it flew. They play the same games but they tap out at a certain point.
 
It is, you can tell by watching level 2 and just the way it trades in general. It's being manipulated downward and will probably pop hard by ER

If you're paying attention, this game becomes pretty transparent. Last Friday the game failed and that's why it flew. They play the same games but they tap out at a certain point.
AMZN chart today is almost identical. This feels like it's just profit taking. No games, just people taking the money they made and running.

The real question is, is some fresh LEAPs a good idea right now or not. Hmm.
 
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This looks like the same consolidation we saw after the big jump earlier this year TBH. Press F for all short term calls anyways. Let's see if the next leg up is next week or not. If not we might not see the next leg up until Battery Day.

Also AMZN is pulling back on similar action. There's a lot of profit taking going on.

Everyone read the same press about how crowded the Tech stock trades are.

OK. Sell and buy Exxon. You can hear crickets over there.

At some point the big boys will instruct media to issue articles about the overwhelming liquidity in the market and how you cannot stay in cash because it pays you nothing.

Or maybe not. Maybe it is finally over and the real market crash is here a la 1930s style.

Guess I didn't enlighten anyone much in the end :(. Sorry, I am confused as well.
 
Maybe this whole week of trading is a headfake. Consolidation, max pain...then we continue movement after (or soon before) ER next week.

I was thinking something similar, where those who got burned on the calls last week are trying to salvage it this week by keeping it artificially range bound in the $1.4k & $1.5k.

I was able to buy back in lower after having to buy back at $1545 to now $1470. It would've been better if I did the buy back yesterday, but all in hindsight.
 
What happens to the value of s&p ETFs like VOO & SPY once the TSLA inclusion announcement is made ?
Wow, what a fun essay prompt, so many tantalizing possibilities to explore. :) I’ll go the "It’s a trick question" route.

(Long term, they’ll do better than they would have otherwise not to mention without having the fossil fuels related components removed.)

Around the announcement, we could run through the cases (up, down, neutral) and speculate. And there’s the rub, we’d be speculating.

Indexes exist to reflect, not to predict nor reject and certainly not to architect the market’s wisdom. People buy those indexes to benefit from that wisdom without paying much for it (sounds like something from the Internet age). The assumption being of course that the current price is the ‘correct’ or ‘best’ price in the mind of the market.

In other words, it doesn’t matter who’s to say the market is wrong. Index buyers are voting with their money that Mr. Market is right.

It is expressly not the job of an index committee to second guess the market’s wisdom. That committee will accept the market’s wisdom.

“lol. How naive and unrealistic" you might say?

Then let me put it a different way. The committee would likely use the turbulence of the virus crisis as cover for any turbulence related to inclusion. They would likely studiously avoid any actions that hint of overriding the wisdom of the markets if only to cover their a$$es.

Bear in mind that this is not advice, I know nothing about the S&P 500 committee in particular, and that I am applying a somewhat jaded, general view of human nature and committees to this specific situation.
 
Tesla's currently intends is to build fewer, larger plants. From the 2020 Q1 Conference Call:

Martin Viecha -- Senior Director for Investor Relations

Okay. The next question from retail investors. When will you announce the next Giga? How many Gigas, you have planned for the next five years?

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

I think we will announce the next Giga possibly as soon as a month. We may not -- as soon as next month. This is not a prediction, just saying. That's -- that could happen. It will certainly be within three months and possibly one month. And that would be in the US. So as for how many will be in five years, I'm not -- I don't know right now what that number would be. I guess, several more than there are today. But I'm not sure, what exactly it would be in five years, but some number more than today.

Zachary J. Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

I'll also add that our Gigas have gotten bigger.

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

It could arguably -- it could start being called Tera.

Zachary J. Kirkhorn -- Chief Financial Officer

Yes, with multiple products as well. And so the absolute number of Giga factories, we may ultimately build might be less, but each one is larger. And that's under our belief that just significant efficiencies by having as much as possible, and similar product lines under the same roof, and as much vertical integration as possible all in one facility.

While true that Tesla plans fewer larger plants I'm not sure that the Texas site is big enough for their immediate plans. It is in total area bigger than GF 4, but the usable area is much less.

As well as 600,000 / year cybertruck, there are 300,000 / year Model Y, semi, HQ function being moved out of California and probably a new design and engineering centre.
 
I don’t remember seeing anyone’s estimates on the Cybertruck manufacturing efficiencies, but as that is likely the first product out of the new Giga, it might take significantly fewer humans per vehicle/day than S3XY.

Pretty sure Model Y for east coast logistics is the planned first vehicle out of GigaTexas/Tulsa.
 
Did anybody notice that Monday's intraday ATH SP was almost exactly 10x last year's 5-year intraday Low SP?

TSLA.chart.2020-07-13.png TSLA.chart.2019-06-28.png

$1,794.99 vs $178.97 (so within 50 cents or 0.3% of 10x)

Yup. Just a coincidence... :p

kabuki18.jpg


HODL'ing.

Cheers!
 
Sandy neglects the costs of building a battery manufacturing plant, likely since he's got zero experience in spec'ing one out.

600K Cybertrucks per year @ 200KWhr each will need about 120 GWh/yr of batteries. But Sandy doesn't consider that in his cost estimate. o_O
Good point and then right at the end he says 51% of the cost of an EV is powertrain. Sandy is great but he sometimes doesn't link everything together, I think he does deep dives into one subject at a time.

Anyway 120GWh - surely Roadrunner does that every week?
 
The information may be correct but it is very poorly presented. It is presented as if they will totally shut down the Fremont factory, which is highly unlikely. Model S&X will probably continue with no interruption, Model 3 may even continue on GA3 uninterrupted. (It is likely that just GA4 will be impacted.)

Here is what Troy said about this yesterday morning:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1283035327372853250

'I have heard that Fremont will shut down next week for retooling to increase Model Y output. This is related to GA4 and GA4.5, not GA5.'

edit: BTW Troy is releasing his initial Q3 estimate today.