Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I was going to start posting again this week since it's earning week but I see there's still some discussion about Tesla doing a offering......so I'm just gonna stay away to avoid arguments about how dumb it is to dilute BEFORE multiple catalysts in the next 4-5 months.

I look forward to Tesla's cash position increasing on Q2 earnings which will hopefully make people realize there's no immediate need for Tesla to have another 2-3 billion in cash.

Elon/Tesla know what's going to happen on Wednesday, and battery day as well as the implications for the SP. I assume they are expecting the SP to increase further and will wait until after those events before doing another offering. That's if they really need to do an offering. I'd think they would to fund the building of several more factories, but obviously they have information on expected growth/demand etc. and local financing opportunities which I suppose could be preferred over issuing stock.

 

[dl003]

So what is the thought about today's price action thus far? People just holding their cards? A nice spike at open but a slow melt ever since, despite decent macros, which was unexpected.

It's the nervous silence before the roller coaster begins. People have fought for tickets; now they wait.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

If there was ever a Mon/Tues/Wed for East Coast traders to take off and go to the beach....this is it.

 

[Runarbt]

Arriving where? The land of slow and no?

I am way to used to/spoiled by twitter.. should have had a lot of different laughing smileys on this one. :-DD

 

[Runarbt]

It's the nervous silence before the roller coaster begins. People have fought for tickets; now they wait.

Not so much nervous, as impatient.

We might get a negative surprise - but I .. really don't think so.

 

[kanweg]

Even a $5B is offering is only 3.3M shares. The indexes need to buy 26M shares. The benchmarked funds around 37M shares.

I don't see how a share offering makes a difference in liquidity unless it is an huge offering. I don't believe Elon would do a huge offering (>$10B) as they cannot put that much money to work. His target is 50% y/y sustainable growth and you can only go so fast due to people, learning curves etc.

So they may do an offering but I don't think it will matter much to the liquidity. He will just be taking advantage of the relatively high stock price make the balance sheet even more robust.

I think it can be used to moderate excessive changes in stock price. Tesla could offer it at 10 or 20% ABOVE the stock price for index funds. Tesla could easily get 10 B that way.
The money could be used to buy 10% of a German and/or Japanese automaker and force them to do more on BEVs. Tesla would negotiate another 10% stock offering from that company in return for Tesla’s technology. Their SP will rise Because of these two factors and they will be able to get loans more easily and cheaply to more the turn around.This would result in more diverse cars (people tend to love their own brand; Some people dislike Elon for something he said in the past and are most willing to screw the environment over it by not purchasing a Tesla). This would be in line with the Mission statement, accelerating the transition without requiring much engineering on Tesla’s part, and Tesla would get a cut, with a 20% stake in that company.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I won't really respond after this since I think everyone already is set in their beliefs on whether Tesla should raise money or not(which is totally fine either way).

But as some of us have said here, a real catalysts to the stock rising that I think is just important as S&P inclusion and Battery Day is the expanded production capabilities of Tesla in Q3 and especially Q4. The effects of that production growth will be profound on earnings, which will shock Wall St. There's no way the stock will be able to accurately reflect that earnings growth until mid Q1(after the rally off of Q4 earnings).

So again, I think it would be dumb to dilute before that event. There's also serious logic flaws in the idea of raising 10 billion and starting tons of Gigafactories at the same time. Tesla would have to exponentially increase logistics in every aspect of the company at an extreme pace to deal with the new production and as Elon has said before, Tesla would waste tons of money in efficiency doing that.

 

[LJS22]

The range has tightened so much this morning that there will likely be a breakout to one side this afternoon. It’s too volatile of a stock to be bound this tight on earnings week. Everyone is waiting for a move though, if it starts to run up it will be piled on but currently it’s at a basic stand still and so it’s not a smart move to place a bet here.

Share holders are in the best position to sit back and enjoy this week, but option players are in a tough boat here.

 

[capster]

Story is paywalled

View attachment 566604

Haha, Mercedes thinks Model S LR's range will remain the same for 18 months.

WLTP, WLTP, ... that’s, um, ... wait, I know, ... oh yeah: the Wishful, Laughable, Totally Pretend range cycle

 

[LJS22]

Could see first mini run here if it crosses 1505. I’m interested to see how much action hits the name on a breakout.

 

[Unpilot]

Could see first mini run here if it crosses 1505. I’m interested to see how much action hits the name on a breakout.

You rang?

 

[elasalle]

days before earnings, TSLA Mgmt needs to go silent. In the past these are times TSLAQ pounce with super FUD.
Not happening so far.

 

[LJS22]

You rang?

First breakout after consolidation. Expect it to find another area to consolidate. It should look like stairs if done right.

 

[jerry33]

There are two camps when it comes to range. Camp 1 are people who live in densely populated areas where you are always 50 miles away from a convenient supercharger. Camp 2 (including myself) don't have that access. My model 3 Performance doesn't have enough range for me. On road trips in winter I wind up extending my travel time by a couple hours on a 9 hour trip. V3 charging might help this but haven't experienced it yet. When I drive to Denver it's usually winter time. Of the 5 SCs on the way I always have to stop at 4, often for periods approaching an hour.

I just drove from KC to CO (9 hour trip) for a family vacation and I drove my Ex's Prius because I didn't want to spend an the extra time dealing with her or complaints about waiting to charge. (taking the kids on a shared vacation, it's complicated). I'd be pretty happy with 300 miles of actual range, even in bad conditions. So my 3 really needs to be like 425 miles of theoretical range to not be a hassle on those long trips.

This is correct. Pulling a trailer and/or bad weather needs the longest range you can get. A real 300-350 miles at 75 mph would work for just about everyone.

 

[adiggs]

It's fun to see these big options trades... Someone bought ~2M worth of July 24 2020 1800c this morning

Where do you get this information? Is this something mere mortals can also get, or do you need a subscription or other service to see it as well?

 

[smorgasbord]

I won't really respond after this since I think everyone already is set in their beliefs on whether Tesla should raise money or not(which is totally fine either way).

But as some of us have said here, a real catalysts to the stock rising that I think is just important as S&P inclusion and Battery Day is the expanded production capabilities of Tesla in Q3 and especially Q4. The effects of that production growth will be profound on earnings, which will shock Wall St. There's no way the stock will be able to accurately reflect that earnings growth until mid Q1(after the rally off of Q4 earnings).

So again, I think it would be dumb to dilute before that event. There's also serious logic flaws in the idea of raising 10 billion and starting tons of Gigafactories at the same time. Tesla would have to exponentially increase logistics in every aspect of the company at an extreme pace to deal with the new production and as Elon has said before, Tesla would waste tons of money in efficiency doing that.

The discussion is about Standard and Poor's asking Tesla to issue more stock to increase liquidity to ameliorate the share price pop that will happen when $40+ Billion of TSLA needs to be bought by the index funds in about a week. According to Rob Maurer, S&P has previously asked companies being added to do that.

 

[LJS22]

This is what we call FOMO. Any and all breakouts will have a pile on effect. Traders just looking for confirmation. I’m hoping we can consolidate near 1530 before another breakout.

 

[capster]

Three days at $1,500 is gonna bore the hell out of me.

Watching the price action and reading the papers, I suspect we’ll see the stock price kept above just $1,500 until Wednesday and a massive effort to push it down and get it to close below $1,500 after the Q2 results are announced regardless of the results (Nothing to see here, move along, move along). Whether the Market Manipulators can make that stick or not is another matter.

edit: Above $1,570. So, yes, it’ll be a struggle for them to hold to $1,500. Let’s not get all weepy with those crocodile tears, now.

edit II: Survey says “No. They’ll not make it stick." Though, hey, maybe not three days, but they lasted a couple hours.

 

[computerchuck]

jeezz, what the heck happened 15 min ago?

Edit: was thinking this was going to be a boring day... get the popcorn!

 

[anthonyj]

$6969.69

Soon

jeezz, what the heck happened 15 min ago?

Edit: was thinking this was going to be a boring day... get the popcorn!

look up “edging”