You don't wait for a crises to finance. If you were the CFO i would fire you for not preplanning for a down turn.
So how much do you think Tesla should hold in reserve?
Last edited:
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
You don't wait for a crises to finance. If you were the CFO i would fire you for not preplanning for a down turn.
So how much do you think Tesla should hold in reserve?
Ok so 8.6 minus the reserve then they have available to expand is that less equal or greater then 8.6 billion?
Now whatever they have left for expansion is that the optimal amount? If they had more would the value of tesla grow more then the new cash or not?
Last edited:
On the subject of macroeconomics, specifically the effect of the coronavirus on our present economy:
In Yuval Noah Harari’s book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow he lays out repeated references to infectious disease outbreaks throughout history. Importantly, he details the empirical data, evidence, and scientific knowledge that has dramatically reduced the mortality rates attributed to these type of outbreaks. Today, you are more likely to die from old age than infectious disease.
In Hans Rossing’s book, Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think, he discusses the data, and evidence gathered during the Ebola outbreak in Africa. He emphasizes the facts surrounding the use of masks and hand washing that significantly reduced the transmission rates.
Medical science and technology is advancing faster today than anytime in history. Rose-colored glasses, maybe, but, I’m amazed at number of folks wearing masks, amazed we are controlling transmission. To this end, medical science will certainly produce a vaccine in the near future.
In Yuval Noah Harari’s book, Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow he lays out repeated references to infectious disease outbreaks throughout history. Importantly, he details the empirical data, evidence, and scientific knowledge that has dramatically reduced the mortality rates attributed to these type of outbreaks. Today, you are more likely to die from old age than infectious disease.
In Hans Rossing’s book, Factfulness: Ten Reasons We’re Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think, he discusses the data, and evidence gathered during the Ebola outbreak in Africa. He emphasizes the facts surrounding the use of masks and hand washing that significantly reduced the transmission rates.
Medical science and technology is advancing faster today than anytime in history. Rose-colored glasses, maybe, but, I’m amazed at number of folks wearing masks, amazed we are controlling transmission. To this end, medical science will certainly produce a vaccine in the near future.
Mike Smith
Active Member
Interesting tweets from Elon - first saying he likes the song 'Lithium', then posting the lyrics which repeats the line - "I'm not gonna crack".
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1287587716197212162/photo/1
Perhaps he's saying they've solved the problem of micro-cracking in Li-ion cells?
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1287587716197212162/photo/1
Perhaps he's saying they've solved the problem of micro-cracking in Li-ion cells?
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
TSLA up $13 in pre-market. 
Glorious.
Glorious.
TSLA up $13 in pre-market.
Glorious.
It was at $1438 for a while. TBH I'm just happy to see some green, feels like a long time!
The USD is weakening substantially. I'm not gonna pretend to be a currency expert but the current US monetary and fiscal policies probably have a thing or two to do with it.
Tesla is exposed to currency fluctuations per their 10K and recent 10Q.
10Q from 2020 Q1:
Interest rate risk is negligible:
Worst case adverse move of 10% results in ~300m$ loss. I'm unsure whether this is computed as a simple 10% gain/weakening of the USD or as individual worst case moves of individual currencies that happen to be good/bad for income. Ie. 10% gain in a currency vs usd where tesla has a net debt and a 10% drop in a currency vs usd where tesla has a net inflow.
Maybe @The Accountant can chime in?
The flipside of that should obv be that a favorable 10% move results in ~300m$ of income. So worth a glance.
it seems to me that on average tesla should gain positive income from dollar weakness unless the timing with EUR and CNY debt facilities has been bad. But we would expect bigger debts to be currency hedged, no?
While revenue streams are less likely to be hedged.
Dollar index DXY Q1 started 96.442 and ended 99,048. 2.7% strengthening.
In Q1 strengthening translated into a 54m$ loss.
Dollar index, DXY started Q2 at 99.048 and ended at 97.391. 2.2% weakening.
Will have to wait for 10Q to confirm whether this weakening translates into an income gain. VERY simple prediction is that it should have translated into a ~45m$ gain.
I started trying to back out individual currency fluctuations in the quarter but ... you know... too much work.
So how is Q3 panning out?
Started at DXY 97.196 and currently sitting at 93.928. a 3.4% weakening.
So, with my r/wallstreetbets level of due diligence I'm predicting this translates into a ~80m$ gain if this level holds through the quarter.
Above is as close as we can come to a garbage in, garbage out analysis. But it's at least a framework that's useful for thinking about how USD movements affects Teslas Q3.
Tesla is exposed to currency fluctuations per their 10K and recent 10Q.
10Q from 2020 Q1:
Interest rate risk is negligible:
Worst case adverse move of 10% results in ~300m$ loss. I'm unsure whether this is computed as a simple 10% gain/weakening of the USD or as individual worst case moves of individual currencies that happen to be good/bad for income. Ie. 10% gain in a currency vs usd where tesla has a net debt and a 10% drop in a currency vs usd where tesla has a net inflow.
Maybe @The Accountant can chime in?
The flipside of that should obv be that a favorable 10% move results in ~300m$ of income. So worth a glance.
it seems to me that on average tesla should gain positive income from dollar weakness unless the timing with EUR and CNY debt facilities has been bad. But we would expect bigger debts to be currency hedged, no?
While revenue streams are less likely to be hedged.
Dollar index DXY Q1 started 96.442 and ended 99,048. 2.7% strengthening.
In Q1 strengthening translated into a 54m$ loss.
Dollar index, DXY started Q2 at 99.048 and ended at 97.391. 2.2% weakening.
Will have to wait for 10Q to confirm whether this weakening translates into an income gain. VERY simple prediction is that it should have translated into a ~45m$ gain.
I started trying to back out individual currency fluctuations in the quarter but ... you know... too much work.
So how is Q3 panning out?
Started at DXY 97.196 and currently sitting at 93.928. a 3.4% weakening.
So, with my r/wallstreetbets level of due diligence I'm predicting this translates into a ~80m$ gain if this level holds through the quarter.
Above is as close as we can come to a garbage in, garbage out analysis. But it's at least a framework that's useful for thinking about how USD movements affects Teslas Q3.
new_sneakers
Member
Jeff Dahn said they’d cracked microcracking, on Slide 20 of his presentation at UBC:
“So really it comes down to a very simple thing. To make a really good lithium-ion cell you have to do 2 things:
Limiting the reactions between the charged electrode materials and the electrolyte is the first, and ...
Eliminate the microcracking. That’s the second.
If you do those two things, you can make a really good lithium ion cell, and that’s what we did. I’ll explain how we did it, to make the so-called million mile battery that the media got so excited about.”
Beautiful. But look at the temperatures. The extent of temperature control you would need to get a particular colour is significant. And to get a uniform coloration, that would go beyond that. (Perhaps better to do the opposite there, and call it a feature that makes each car unique).Tesla Cybertruck's steel body can be heated to get different colors - Electrek
Elon is saying it is possible not that colors will be offered.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Well, if we could drop that temperature range down to 70-110 F we could have our very own mood ring cars.
hacer
Active Member
Hmm, I'm in the camp that believes Tesla made at least one whole CYBRTRCK, including all the body panels it contained. I guess you're in the camp that it's just a CGI fake
Shorty with their usual just-before-pre-market push-down to try and head-fake the wider audience.
Very low volume so far today though, meaningless.
Very low volume so far today though, meaningless.
UkNorthampton
TSLA - 12+ startups in 1
Haven't seen this posted - UK electricity grid's carbon emissions could turn negative by 2033, says National Grid
My view: Not keen on carbon capture compared to reducing use of fossil fuels. Cryobattery can remove CO2 easily - not sure what to use it for except current purposes eg soft drinks and beer. Vehicles will be dominant well before 2033. Heat pumps are a great idea (UK may suit air source as it's rarely that cold). I'd love a Tesla home with HVAC and intelligent all-electric heating. I can live without cooking on gas - as I don't like the leaks in the distribution system.
"Carbon emissions from Britain’s electricity system could turn negative by as early as 2033 if the UK uses carbon capture technology alongside more renewable energy to reach its climate targets, according to a report from National Grid.
The electricity network operator on Monday set out its vision for an “emissions negative” grid that would include 30m electric vehicles on UK roads, and 8m heat pumps used to replace gas boilers in energy-efficient homes.
In National Grid’s most progressive vision for Britain’s pathway towards its 2050 climate targets it claims that net carbon emissions from the electricity sector could turn negative within 13 years by using carbon capture technology alongside bioenergy sources."
'E-highways' could slash UK road freight emissions, says study - dumb unless it's rest areas or short stretches. Almost designed to discredit EVs.
My view: Not keen on carbon capture compared to reducing use of fossil fuels. Cryobattery can remove CO2 easily - not sure what to use it for except current purposes eg soft drinks and beer. Vehicles will be dominant well before 2033. Heat pumps are a great idea (UK may suit air source as it's rarely that cold). I'd love a Tesla home with HVAC and intelligent all-electric heating. I can live without cooking on gas - as I don't like the leaks in the distribution system.
"Carbon emissions from Britain’s electricity system could turn negative by as early as 2033 if the UK uses carbon capture technology alongside more renewable energy to reach its climate targets, according to a report from National Grid.
The electricity network operator on Monday set out its vision for an “emissions negative” grid that would include 30m electric vehicles on UK roads, and 8m heat pumps used to replace gas boilers in energy-efficient homes.
In National Grid’s most progressive vision for Britain’s pathway towards its 2050 climate targets it claims that net carbon emissions from the electricity sector could turn negative within 13 years by using carbon capture technology alongside bioenergy sources."
'E-highways' could slash UK road freight emissions, says study - dumb unless it's rest areas or short stretches. Almost designed to discredit EVs.
The Accountant
Active Member
Fair question. With past results, there have always been a few statistics that bears would highlight to spread doubt. The Q3 2020 results put these doubts to rest.
- Tesla is not profitable without Regulatory Credits (no longer true)
- Tesla loses money on each car sold (this was never true but more obvious now with profits excluding Reg Credits)
- The more cars Tesla sells, the more they lose (the opposite is clearly true now… revenues will grow 31% and GAAP profits will grow 242%....the Operating Leverage is huge).
- Even with growth in vehicles, revenues have declined or remained flat (no longer true)
- There is not enough demand to meet the production of two factories at full capacity (Q3 is the first test and Tesla has passed…demand has met ramped up production)
- Price Cuts will weaken margins (nope…margins went up)
- Tesla share price is too high (Sorry Elon..it's actually cheap - at $3.50 non-GAAP EPS for Q3, that is $14 annualized giving Tesla a 100 P/E ratio - Amazon was at a P/E of 236 when it first turned profitable (as are many growth companies)...at a 236 P/E, Tesla SP would have to be at $3,300)
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
And here we go. If SP pattern follows the last few major positive events, we should start a strong climb today or tomorrow. We shall see!
Here's hoping options premiums continue lower.
Here's hoping options premiums continue lower.
Remember that dividends are taxed twice, first a corporate income tax and second as income/capital gains to the shareholder. From a pure economic perspective even share buybacks would be preferable to dividend payout, although both only make sense if the company has no sound investment options.
Exception: nominal dividend payout to allow institutional investors to participate when they are restricted too dividend-paying securities. Some issue preferred stock for that purpose, but that has other problems including index eligibility etc.
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
