Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

If can not, can not. Merry Christmas!

Cheers!

Sorry, but anything Bing did for Christmas is dead for me after this:

 

[CanadaEV]

Including Green Pete.

I hope some of you also took me up on my "not advice" for june 2022 1500 strike when they were 36 bucks in March.

I'm interested in what anyone thinks about the merits of cashing in a gain like that to move a little out of the money to buy similar calls. If you wanted to you could increase the number of calls, but also possibly reduce the negative side of any kind of pullback.

 

[StealthP3D]

For those risk takers and options traders here. The Jan 2021 leap calls are under a $1 for a strike of $690. If FC FSD arrives and Shanghai factory outputs good numbers by the end of next year I see no reason why the price can’t explode to at least 750 giving you a 60x return. The Tesla price is always somewhat of a mystery to me but a tripling in price with everything expected over the next year isn’t entirely unreasonable to me. Not a lot of risk for a lot of reward there.

Frankly I feel like if the right things happen there’s no reason it couldn’t explode far more than triple.

Not advice. Just an opinion.

Yes, Thank you Green Pete! Those are the ones I bought on the same day you posted that (9/3/19). Whoever was selling those was dumber than Mark Spiegel.

Errr, wait...Maybe it was Mark Spiegel!

 

[Knightshade]

It seems like a lifetime ago but I believe the "PUP" stood for "Premium Upgrade Package" which cost extra and included some extras that they all come with now. I notice I'm showing my wifes LR RWD as also having "PUP". My Performance Model 3 is a "Stealth" version with Aero wheels and no spoiler or red brakes so it looks identical to hers. I should probably edit that because now it's confusing (since Tesla no longer markets the options the same way).

Tesla is terrible about acronym duplicating of things.

PUP was originally premium upgrade package (back when they planned the SR to have a legit cheap interior with cloth seats)

But then it was also performance upgrade package to turn a P3D- into a P3D+ with larger wheels, larger brakes, and the spoiler and sport pedals.


They did the same crap with EAP... which was both Enhanced Auto Pilot and Early Access Program.

DPHC for lordstown motors.

Yup, I got 100 warrants for some change in my couch... if it's worthless eh I'm out a nice dinner out, if it turns into a real thing it's a nice lottery win.

Sorry, but anything Bing did for Christmas is dead for me after this:

C'mon now, that's the second most hilarious Bowie video ever... (after the duet with Jagger on Dancing in the Streets)

 

[woodisgood]

There's more than one way to skin a cat but it would just amount to more gambling on top of gambling. There's no free ride, they could end up in an even worse position.

The closest thing to a free ride is buying a good company for the long haul and keep a close eye on them to ensure they don't go off course.

If the short was large enough and you knew that covering would cause a large SP increase...

I’m wondering if someone like Chanos has been covering and also bought those 8/21 calls.

Folks were speculating that the heavy call volume for 8/21 was due to someone who knew they’d be buying heavily, likely related to S&P inclusion.

I’m just wondering if it could be [large] shorts that are getting squeezed. Obviously for a retail short it would be a gamble on top of gamble as you suggest.

 

[Sofie]

So I wonder, now, what is meant by “we must pass through The Great Filter”....lol

 

[Krugerrand]

Public announcement: Mom says ‘I told you so.’ (See, I come by that honestly). She also said it’s going to $2,500 post split. She would not, however, give me a date but assured me I’d still be alive when it happened.

 

[SpeedGoat]

Is there any logical basis for TSLA >$2000?

If you can find it cheaper, buy it up.

 

[Krugerrand]

Last post for the day...Who else was scared Pre-market today that $TSLA was gonna trade down with the bad jobs report?? You know who you are!!

I thought it looked good for a down day at the start, but I was smart enough to wait and see before posting and looking like I didn’t know what I was talking about.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Aug 20, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TSLA Busts Through $2K"

Traded: $40,636,910,017.23 ($40.64 B)
Volume: 20,616,678
VWAP: $1,971.07

Closing SP / VWAP: 101.59%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $373.065B / $189.627B = 196.74%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $292.47B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $179.03B
Nota Bene: Mkt Cap on pace to unlock CEO comp. 3rd tranche Sep 07, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 49.5% (49th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 42.7% (45th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.90% of Short Volume (57th Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "8/21 $2000 Strike Calls: Today's Vol=95,854 contracts, OpenInt=14,789"

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[Mokuzai]

I clearly need to start buying better beer.

 

[Green Pete]

I'm interested in what anyone thinks about the merits of cashing in a gain like that to move a little out of the money to buy similar calls. If you wanted to you could increase the number of calls, but also possibly reduce the negative side of any kind of pullback.

I am lucky, and not an expert by any measure other than repeated good luck. I started favoring leaps with the intent of holding in to long term capital gains tho. Ive cashed out some as a safety net but Im holding minimum one year. The returns are getting lower tho given how deep in the money they are now.

Also, even given that the these calls are now deep in the money, given teslas volatility Im still nervous. I want to convert these to shares rather than more calls. I might dabble in some more calls later, but I rarely buy more than 4k of calls at a time. I like looking for stuff priced at 0.75 or 7.5 and buy 50 or 5 at a go.

For what it's worth, I used the same strat on apple and Amazon in March and all three have similar returns. Wish I had balanced between the three more now.

I say this in all seriousness, Im pretty sure the inspiration for my trading strategy was seeded by the explanation for Brownstone capital's investing scheme in "The Big Short".

 

[Open Interest]

You can get a Dual-motor Cybertruck for only 25 shares plus tax and registration!

In a week it'll cost you 125 shares (give or take any share price moves).

Why is this bringing back memories of S&W Green Stamps?

Shares is the new currency!

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Must be a lot of brown short shorts today.

 

[Cherry Wine]

 

[Prunesquallor]

Must be a lot of brown short shorts today.

Truly, are there any left? What the hell is wrong with them?

 

[StealthP3D]

If the short was large enough and you knew that covering would cause a large SP increase...

I’m wondering if someone like Chanos has been covering and also bought those 8/21 calls.

Folks were speculating that the heavy call volume for 8/21 was due to someone who knew they’d be buying heavily, likely related to S&P inclusion.

I’m just wondering if it could be [large] shorts that are getting squeezed. Obviously for a retail short it would be a gamble on top of gamble as you suggest.

I think buying enough calls to cover a short position might cause a similar rise in price vs. just covering the short position. But there may be some advantage to doing it that way. I hope I'm never in a position where I have to think that hard about something so boring and unpleasant!

My observation is that it looks like there is still upward pressure on the share price and that any natural demand for the shares on the long side is being enhanced significantly by forced buying by shorts. While it could end at any time, I don't see any signs of that happening. If we see a $200+ day tomorrow, I'm going to assume there were too many "synthetic" shares (shares sold short that had no underlying real shares backing them up) and that the people responsible for those shares are being forced to make good on them. I'm not expecting a + $200 day tomorrow but it's a possibility.

Fortunately, I'm not trying to time the market so this is mostly an academic exercise for me.

 

[dl003]

Public announcement: Mom says ‘I told you so.’ (See, I come by that honestly). She also said it’s going to $2,500 post split. She would not, however, give me a date but assured me I’d still be alive when it happened.

Can I have her phone number? She seems to be the mastermind here.

 

[StealthP3D]

Public announcement: Mom says ‘I told you so.’ (See, I come by that honestly). She also said it’s going to $2,500 post split. She would not, however, give me a date but assured me I’d still be alive when it happened.

Does she know how many lives you've already used up?

 

[Lbkmxp100d]

I think buying enough calls to cover a short position might cause a similar rise in price vs. just covering the short position. But there may be some advantage to doing it that way. I hope I'm never in a position where I have to think that hard about something so boring and unpleasant!

My observation is that it looks like there is still upward pressure on the share price and that any natural demand for the shares on the long side is being enhanced significantly by forced buying by shorts. While it could end at any time, I don't see any signs of that happening. If we see a $200+ day tomorrow, I'm going to assume there were too many "synthetic" shares (shares sold short that had no underlying real shares backing them up) and that the people responsible for those shares are being forced to make good on them. I'm not expecting a + $200 day tomorrow but it's a possibility.

Fortunately, I'm not trying to time the market so this is mostly an academic exercise for me.

The advantage is making $. If they know they need to cover enough shares to move the SP then it would only make sense to buy calls to take advantage of the rise.