Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet TSLA]

I agree that Tesla has noble goals. I'm flabbergasted that you consider Apple's goals comparable or noble.

That's because Apple has been subjected to the same level of FUD as Tesla, and you are the victim of that. If you aren't seriously paying attention (similar to how you are paying attention to Tesla now), pretty much you are utterly deluded by a deluge of lies. This has slowed for Apple in recent years as being obviously hugely successful has reduced the level of FUD and the monstrous short interest has decreased somewhat.

Although I agree that making wonderful products that delight customers and change for the better the way they live is not as noble as saving humanity from destruction.

 

[mikevbf]

Since it is the weekend I thought I would share a long form post I cooked up:

Is Tesla Worth Double Toyota?

It’s 8/23/20. After days, weeks and months of TSLA stock and thus valuation booming, to nearly double that of what was the largest automotive company Toyota, I thought it a good moment to take a step back and contemplate the question: “Is Tesla actually worth double Toyota?"

Toyota sells a little over 10 million cars a year. With Tesla worth double Toyota it would eventually need to make double the number of cars as Toyota, right? Even if Tesla’s automotive sales grow at a 50% CAGR, they will not sell double the cars of Toyota until around 2030. Based on a straight forward Automaker A compared to Automaker B perspective, selling your TSLA stock would seem a no brainer.

But Tesla is not a straight forward automotive company. To start with, there is an assumption in the above that Toyota is going to continue selling at the same levels for the next decade. If new car sales are going electric over that decade, my guess is companies like Toyota are going to have a really tough time making the transition while maintaining their sales and profit numbers.

Add to that, each Tesla sold is also a software profit opportunity starting with an ever increasingly priced FSD package currently sold for $8000. And going forward Tesla will have many more lucrative software opportunities in areas such as music and entertainment. There are two major take aways here: 1, Tesla does not need to reach level 5 autonomy in order to become hugely profitable; 2, Tesla selling a car is not the same as another auto maker selling a car, the margin opportunity is much greater per unit sold. And if Tesla does not choose to take those margins, but instead, continually discount their cars, then what do think happens to the sales of companies the like of Toyota who do not have access to the same lucrative software capital streams?

And then there is the whole energy business. 9 of the top 10 revenue companies in the world are either energy or automotive companies with energy companies leading the pack. Tesla is positioned to dominate in the multi trillion dollar energy market with its solar, batteries, and Autobidder. When this and everything else mentioned above are taken into account, Tesla starts to make sense at double the value of Toyota and in the future many more than double Toyota or any other auto maker. And I didn’t even get into the machine that builds the machine, sheer pace of innovation, and Tesla’s pool of current and future engineering talent.

But in the end to be valued so highly, Tesla needs to execute on their plans. So, there is risk. Remember investing long term is essentially gauging the total opportunity of a company minus future risks to capturing that opportunity over time. Place your bets according to your research, beliefs, and financial situation.

 

[mongo]

What do you all think about an automated cell production line for semi in Nevada that does not require so much labor. What could be the possibility of producing semi in nevada?

Semi will be built at Texas, as (most likely) will the cells that go into it.
From Q2 call
Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2020 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

So if anyone is interested in looking at a Giga Texas with engineering, production, whatever the case may be, please let us know. This is -- we're going to be doing a major factory there, and it's also where we'll be doing Cybertruck there, the Tesla Semi. And we'll be doing Model 3 and Y for the eastern half of North America. Now at the same time, I want to say, we will continue to grow in California, but we expect California to do Model S and X for worldwide consumption and 3 and Y for the western half of North America.

 

[gabeincal]

View attachment 579676

1180 Page Avenue is across the street to the south of Tesla's Page Ave site. Amprius would have a front row view of the new Roadrunner plant currently being constructed across the street. I suspect Tesla would be developing a Silicon anode either through some association with a company like Amprius or via their rumoured aquisition of SilLion. Although this may not be fully developed for the Roadrunner cells that will be featured at Battery Day. However I am expecting a surprise of some kind.

This is the same building they're upgrading right now, including a new electric feed from PG&E to up manufacturing capacity. Something is brewing... Thank you for the information!!!

 

[mongo]

This is the same building they're upgrading right now, including a new electric feed from PG&E to up manufacturing capacity. Something is brewing... Thank you for the information!!!

Just to be clear, Roadrunner is at 47700 Kato and 1055 Page Ave, not 1180 Page (Amprius).
Tesla “PROJECT ROADRUNNER” Location Might Turn Into Serious Production Site

 

[JRP3]

I posted this in the resource thread though it's more battery technology related. Possibility that Tesla could be involved. Replaces metal plate current collectors with metallic coated thin film substrate.

Not directly related to resources but this is a potential new development which would increase cell safety, reduce copper and aluminum use, and increase energy density

The Resource Angle

 

[LTC_RRR]

The Cui patent application is
WO2011119614
And can be found here
Espacenet - Origineel document
It did result in Two European patents

Espacenet - Origineel document


Espacenet - Origineel document

From their website:
"Additionally, we are working on new cathode materials that will further increase the energy density and power of our batteries. Our high performance lithium-ion batteries containing 100% silicon nanowire anodes are currently being used in premium and mission critical applications and are expected to expand to EV and consumer applications in the near future."

 

[H Mak]

There's a TV programme here on the BBC called "Countryfile". It's about the countryside, cows, sheep and farmers etc. It's a typical sunday evening gentle programme which you watch because there's nothing else on. I was surprised tonight when they had a 10 minute segment on electric cars in the UK. How it's good for the environment bla bla bla, but also how the Cornish tin mines could be repurposed as lithium mines. Anyway, the entire continuity was the presenter driving round the english countryside in a grey Tesla model 3. Lots of attractive shots of the outside and interior of the car. Essentially Tesla has become a byword for electric car. Free advertising.

 

[jw934]

Roadrunner is at 47700 Kato and 1055 Page Ave, not 1180 Page (Amprius).

47700 kato is directly opposite Amprius 1180 Page in this Google street view as per Under the Tesla sign. Google Maps

 

[SarahsDad]

Since this is the weekend, I thought I'd post a fascinating retrospective clip of Cathie Wood of ARK Investing, in one of her first interviews on CNBC, way back in February 2015. She had the same strident confidence about Tesla then that she has now. It's hilarious to watch the other commentators try to belittle and disparage her. The SP was 200 then, so a 10-Bagger since. Guess she gets the last laugh .

Tesla, the Apple of autos: Pro

 

[CorneliusXX]

Fresh FUD of today: "What if the fire in Nor Cal reaches Fremont? What if the factory burns down?"
I have no words.

No chance. Ellen Pao would arrest that fire for violating social distancing rules before it could reach the factory.

 

[wtlloyd]

Since this is the weekend, I thought I'd post a fascinating retrospective clip of Cathie Wood of ARK Investing, in one of her first interviews on CNBC, way back in February 2015. She had the same strident confidence about Tesla then that she has now. It's hilarious to watch the other commentators try to belittle and disparage her. The SP was 200 then, so a 10-Bagger since. Guess she gets the last laugh .

Tesla, the Apple of autos: Pro

That was fantastic, thanks.

 

[jw934]

n one of her first interviews on CNBC, way back in February 2015

One point discussed on that 2015 interview was whether Elon's estimate that Tesla will make 500,000 cars in 2020 was to be believed.

I looked up what Elon said and found this: >> "
Musk said last month [i.e. Jan 2015] that Tesla may not show an unadjusted profit until 2020, when it is selling an estimated 500,000 cars per year." , at the bottom of this Feb 11, 2015 news article, implying even back in 2015, he calculated Tesla would be added to S&P500 in 2020.
Tesla Motors reports fourth quarter losses, Elon Musk staying positive

 

[Tslynk67]

There's a TV programme here on the BBC called "Countryfile". It's about the countryside, cows, sheep and farmers etc. It's a typical sunday evening gentle programme which you watch because there's nothing else on. I was surprised tonight when they had a 10 minute segment on electric cars in the UK. How it's good for the environment bla bla bla, but also how the Cornish tin mines could be repurposed as lithium mines. Anyway, the entire continuity was the presenter driving round the english countryside in a grey Tesla model 3. Lots of attractive shots of the outside and interior of the car. Essentially Tesla has become a byword for electric car. Free advertising.

For those that don't know Countryfile, here's a clip:

 

[MaChiMiB]

One point discussed on that 2015 interview was whether Elon's estimate that Tesla will make 500,000 cars in 2020 was to be believed.

I looked up what Elon said and found this: >> "
Musk said last month [i.e. Jan 2015] that Tesla may not show an unadjusted profit until 2020, when it is selling an estimated 500,000 cars per year." , at the bottom of this Feb 11, 2015 news article, implying even back in 2015, he calculated Tesla would be added to S&P500 in 2020.
Tesla Motors reports fourth quarter losses, Elon Musk staying positive

Elon -> what if the L is a pipe, marking the split -> e|on -> one. Another anagram, which got prominently used in the past, is neo. This guy really figured out the matrix.

 

[Singuy]

Was going back and forth with value investors on a different medium and I have came to this prediction.

I don't think value stocks with low P/E that pays a dividend will be roaring back to their original price point even after Covid 19. I do believe that these stocks will be paying a higher dividend (meaning stock price will be lower vs before) even if their profits return to pre-Covid levels.

My reasoning is that due to Covid 19, global pandemic is now a NEW RISK introduced to the market. This risk attacks specific sectors extremely hard, like travel, entertainment, energy, and dining. Prior to Covid, those stocks were considered bread and butter value stocks with low P/E and low risk. Tech however were always considered to be riskier but with more upside than value stocks.

This pandemic however flipped the script. We can see that the only thing pandemic has done is for tech companies to make even MORE money than before. This means going forward, the newly introduced risk of potential future global pandemics has reduced risk for tech and INCREASED risk for value companies. A lot of people think the transition to tech is temporary but in my opinion the transition is just reassessing risk in equities. The thing about this is that because techs usually have higher multiplier for reward, any small reduction in risk amplifies asset prices to keep up with the potential reward, hence we see bubble like transitions. The flip side is also true, because value stocks's life line is low risk, any increased amount of risk amplifies down in its value proposition.

What do you guys think?

 

[Tslynk67]

Since this is the weekend, I thought I'd post a fascinating retrospective clip of Cathie Wood of ARK Investing, in one of her first interviews on CNBC, way back in February 2015. She had the same strident confidence about Tesla then that she has now. It's hilarious to watch the other commentators try to belittle and disparage her. The SP was 200 then, so a 10-Bagger since. Guess she gets the last laugh .

Tesla, the Apple of autos: Pro

Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose... Cathie's great and she was bossing it back then too. well worth a watch.

Some great links on that page too, for example: Tesla is a stock that's heading into 'the single digits,' says short-seller

 

[Mich]

so, what to expect from tomorrow? Monday gap up? SP hit because of a no volume week?


My best guess is +/- 15%.

 

[EnergyMax]

OT weekend entertainment. SpaceX is about to attempt static fire of starship SN6.

Edit. NVM scrubbed.

 

[dhanson865]

So very thankful for the split. Sick and tired of people looking at the stock price as if it's worth more than Google. This market cap/stock price thing is difficult for people to grasp.

TSLA is worth ~36% of GOOGL. Is it really that far out of whack to think about it being more valuable in the next few years?

TSLA triples in price while GOOGL holds flat and you have that.

TSLA quadruples in price while GOOGLE rises by less than 33% and you have that.

Sure it'll take some time to happen but do you doubt it will?

How about AAPL? (double the TSLA numbers from above)

Only about 10 companies ahead of TSLA on the market cap list now.

* AAPL
* AMZN
* MSFT
* GOOG / GOOGL
* FB
* BABA
* BRK.B / BRK.A
* V
* TSM
* JNJ

TSLA should jump 3 or so spots just in the coming week or two.

And still those people will somehow think TSLA is a better value when it's several multiples more expensive than it is now. They'll be drawn in by all the press coverage as TSLA eventually is considered legit and the press stops calling it overpriced. Yes that will take a while too, but the same person that wouldn't buy it at 300 will somehow think it cheap in a few years at several times that price.