Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Vad42]

Bottom line S&P addition may never happen, but IMO it will happen when almost no one expects it, if I'm on the committee that is the timing I would pick.

So, next Tuesday, then?

 

[Open Interest]

So what did all of Elon’s S&P tweets hint at then?

 

[Boomer19]

seems like a lot of people knew as of 4 days ago tesla wasn’t going to be included!!

 

[Prunesquallor]

The commission makes its index pretty much irrelevant if they don't add Tesla therefore all that they can do is postpone it but they do not have much of a choice if they want to stay in business-like in the past.

We will see what next week brings but after today I expect them to get a ton of pressure.

Agree. If there’s no inclusion, then the new additional criterion seems to be “only companies we like”. What’s the point of an index with a criterion like that?

 

[JRP3]

Gordon Johnson freezing cold take (From 1902): “Yeah but there’s more horses than motor vehicles, how are cars ever gonna outpace horses? People buy horses. Look at Europe numbers, 98% of people use horses.”

I was making the exact same comparison in my head as I was listening to his nonsense.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I'm expecting Q3 and Q4 2020 to be profitable so S&P inclusions could happen anytime in the next 6 months.
While I would like it to happen, it is no certainty...

While it has a significant affect of the share price short term, . the fundamentals of the business and revenue growth are more important.

IMO for it to happen there are 3 key criteria:-

• A good entry price
• The element of surprise
• 100% confidence that an infinity squeeze will not happen.

The element of surprise is to make sure there is not significant front-running, not adding now may be a way to unwind some of that front running.

I don't think the share split and the $5B offering were sufficient to prevent an infinity squeeze, They were not necessarily related to S&P addition we don't know if Tesla has had any negotiations with the committee or how those negotiations went.

I was assuming there might be a quiet agreement that the $5B was just the first installment.(this might be the case)

We have to get used to speculation because people love to speculate, Battery Day has shown us that, and also that speculation can be wrong.

Bottom line S&P addition may never happen, but IMO it will happen when almost no one expects it, if I'm on the committee that is the timing I would pick.

They do run a risk that Battery Day might significantly increase the share price, so moving before Battery Day would be ideal but not at the risk of an infinity squeeze..

Sometimes it is not worth saying up all Christmas Night, it is better to get a good nights sleep and be surprised in the morning.

Sorry, I disagreed because adding a bunch of unmeasurable, subjective criteria like that is just crap. The index would lose all purpose.

 

[MC3OZ]

So, next Tuesday, then?

Could be in all honesty I'm not sure there is enough liquidity to prevent a major price spike...

The need to negotiate some deal with Tesla for a lot more than $5B, I would be confident that Tesla would honor any deal to issue more shares and tap any high prices..

But anytime in the next 6 months literally means that....

 

[Navin]

Once again TMC ad engine picks up on the sentiment here. Good night everyone

 

[MC3OZ]

Sorry, I disagreed because adding a bunch of unmeasurable, subjective criteria like that is just crap. The index would lose all purpose.

Fair enough,

I always say "What would I do in their position".,.. that is subjective.... but a key criteria for funds is to look after their members interests.... if they are buying in, they need to know the approximate price... at least I would before buying.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If inclusion doesn't happen next week, I still can't make any sense of the offering. If Tesla needed cash, they would have done a traditional offering at a set price. They specifically made the offering in a way where they could benefit from the stock going up but that they would be risking the stock going down. I don't see how they would do that offering without having some sort of contact with the S&P committee. It really makes no sense.

 

[Hock1]

I sold 9/4 390 puts earlier this week that I didn't buy back for .02 by the close. Wanna take bets on me being assigned with an AH price below 390?

seems like a lot of people knew as of 4 days ago tesla wasn’t going to be included!!

No. It's more like the manipulators knew that a non-announcement of inclusion would be a BFD for Internet option players!

 

[dl003]

Eff the SP. We'll get to 600 with or without them. Im done waiting on a bunch of incompetent pigs. If they think longs will bail to make their job easier, they got something coming for them.

 

[Garlands]

If inclusion doesn't happen next week, I still can't make any sense of the offering. If Tesla needed cash, they would have done a traditional offering at a set price. They specifically made the offering in a way where they could benefit from the stock going up but that they would be risking the stock going down. I don't see how they would do that offering without having some sort of contact with the S&P committee. It really makes no sense.

Battery day

 

[EV forever]

There we go. Keep people on the hook thinking it can still happen. Meanwhile...

Have we not yet realized that Tesla/TSLA will have to do this the hard way from start to finish? What part of old boys club, entrenched establishments, powerful and rich political connections, and billion dollar PER DAY industries do we not understand?

We have to tear it all down. Crush them all. That is when Mother Earth, human existence and TSLA stockholders get their dues. Not a moment before.

I know that sounds overly dramatic, but seriously how could any of you been hanging your hat on S&P inclusion; a secret committee that gets to make the rules up as they go along?! Freaking Etsy. OMG! I couldn’t laugh any harder.

Hey, don't dis Etsy - where else would you get quality handmade items with obviously pirated logos like this beautiful Tesla face mask or Space X Face mask
/s

More seriously though - I agree with you completely. If they are not willing to add Tesla, the 7th largest company in US to the index, the entire S&P500 index is meaningless!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Battery day

No I'm not questioning Tesla actually raising the money. I definitely could see something being shown at battery day that justifies the need for the money.

My issue is the terms of the offering. If Tesla thought there was even a slight chance they werent getting added this quarter, there's no way you would do offering terms like that. You would simply do an offering at the 480 share price. Even Zach's mom would know the stock will drop hard if there's no inclusion this quarter

 

[aznt1217]

I think we are all focusing on the wrong thing. In my previous posts I said S&P inclusion would be cherry on top. Similar to cars, there’s no demand problem with shares. Tesla already has enough institutional ownership.

I think what we should all be focusing on is the last leg of Elon’s Germany trip. Podcast episode landing... some point this weekend.

 

[azaz]

If inclusion doesn't happen next week, I still can't make any sense of the offering. If Tesla needed cash, they would have done a traditional offering at a set price. They specifically made the offering in a way where they could benefit from the stock going up but that they would be risking the stock going down. I don't see how they would do that offering without having some sort of contact with the S&P committee. It really makes no sense.

No I'm not questioning Tesla actually raising the money. I definitely could see something being shown at battery day that justifies the need for the money.

My issue is the terms of the offering. If Tesla thought there was even a slight chance they werent getting added this quarter, there's no way you would do offering terms like that. You would simply do an offering at the 480 share price.

the shorts claim it’s because there wasn’t enough interest at this price but I think it’s more likely it gets added this week.

my 150k in calls certainly hope so

 

[Big Time]

https://twitter.com/iftf6/status/1302019033294807040?s=21

 

[elasalle]

No I'm not questioning Tesla actually raising the money. I definitely could see something being shown at battery day that justifies the need for the money.

My issue is the terms of the offering. If Tesla thought there was even a slight chance they werent getting added this quarter, there's no way you would do offering terms like that. You would simply do an offering at the 480 share price. Even Zach's mom would know the stock will drop hard if there's no inclusion this quarter

It's possible that TSLA Mgmt got caught up just like us TMC Fools
EM has been tweeting S... & P ... for a couple of weeks now.

TSLA is the high school kid, who goes directly to the NBA/ All Star Game .. no small cap, mid cap 400, directly to 500

(+ just showcase Battery Day, execute on Q3 )

On my 2nd IPA ... chillin

 

[Cattledog]

I propose we at TMC create a new Index - The U&R 1

The Unique and Rich 1, with Tesla as its only inclusion.

When SpaceX goes public, we'll amend the charter to be the U&R 2.

Then Starlink, Boring Company, Neuralink, RNA Microfactory, you get the idea, simply +1...