Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[JRP3]

Unless you work for Tesla engineering, no one have a good understanding of what they have. A bull making claims about million batteries about to utilize our cars as virtual power plants are just as wrong as whatever Bill is saying. Or who knows, just as right. Everything is speculation.

Since Gates will be seen as an authority he should take care to have actual knowledge about the topic. Some simple investigation would reveal that removing the ICE, transmission, and related components will allow the Tesla vehicle to be very competitive on weight, plus the fact that Tesla has proven quite adept at other weight savings measures. Additionally not every semi is loaded to the maximum weight load. He should also know that semis take 20+ minutes to load and unload, living plenty of time for an 80% charge, so his "short distances" claim is also false. Tesla and Elon are working on the premise that Gates is wrong, they have actual experience building EV's while he does not.

 

[Bet TSLA]

I have absolutely zero concerns about getting assigned plus my break even is 395$. I understood the risk before selling the put.

My understanding is the option exercise is based on the closing price in regular hours. I will call my broker to get a better understanding because to me this can be gamed. I guess most news do not come out on a Friday to clearly this is an exception.

The only reason I pointed it out was to give an example of the craziness that can ensue when the eventual announcement comes out. People on this forum actually predicted this(exercise of options based on AH prices) will happen.

Not sure what you're saying. Obviously the option assignment will be at 410, since that was the strike price. That the buyer of the put decided to exercise may have been based on after hours news, but that was always part of the contract. As was the possibility of assigning out of the money options.

The option hasn't actually expired until some time after hours, not at close. Are you objecting to that?

 

[mongo]

Bills criticism has been the criticism of the Semi project since reveal because load capacity was not a spec shown during the reveal, which is actually the most important metric for an 18 wheeler due to the 60k lbs restriction put in place. Elon and his team fully understand that if they were to show this number back in 2016, it would have been a dud since we know the production product will be miles better. And it was what, just 3 months ago Elon finally felt comfortable bringing semi to volume production? Sept 22nd will spill all the beans.

Disagree.
Cost per mile per pound of cargo (or cubic foot) is more important than individual capacity.

Max gross is 80k. 12k front axle, 34k per tandem.

Tesla semi is fine. Tesla semi generates no frame torsion due to integrated motor axles so the frame can be lightened.
Normal tractors range from 10-25k.
Model 3 pack weighs 1,054 for 80.5kW. If Semi is 1,000 kWh (long range version), that works out to 13,000 pounds (worst case). So Tesla should be sub 23k (full normal + pack).
Average load is <40k pounds. https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/reports/tswstudy/Vol2-Chapter3.pdf

 

[dc_h]

Bills criticism has been the criticism of the Semi project since reveal because load capacity was not a spec shown during the reveal, which is actually the most important metric for an 18 wheeler due to the 60k lbs restriction put in place. Elon and his team fully understand that if they were to show this number back in 2016, it would have been a dud since we know the production product will be miles better. And it was what, just 3 months ago Elon finally felt comfortable bringing semi to volume production? Sept 22nd will spill all the beans.

Does this help?
Tesla Semi Prototype Spotted Hauling 75,000-Pound Load Through Northern California

 

[Navin]

Can we create a new topic called Bill Gates and his fetish for trucks topic away from this thread?

 

[NickInLab]

I have absolutely zero concerns about getting assigned plus my break even is 395$. I understood the risk before selling the put.

My understanding is the option exercise is based on the closing price in regular hours. I will call my broker to get a better understanding because to me this can be gamed. I guess most news do not come out on a Friday to clearly this is an exception.

Option exercise is entirely at the discretion of the entity who bought the option. OTM options are typically not exercised, but they absolutely can be exercised. As the writer (seller) of OTM an option contract, you are typically not, but absolutely can be assigned.

You can verify this for yourself by buying an OTM call and then immediately exercising it while it is still OTM. Cash will disappear and shares will appear in your account (and you will have paid more than the current market price for the shares).

 

[jerry33]

Since Gates will be seen as an authority he should take care to have actual knowledge about the topic. Some simple investigation would reveal that removing the ICE, transmission, and related components will allow the Tesla vehicle to be very competitive on weight, plus the fact that Tesla has proven quite adept at other weight savings measures. Additionally not every semi is loaded to the maximum weight load. He should also know that semis take 20+ minutes to load and unload, living plenty of time for an 80% charge, so his "short distances" claim is also false. Tesla and Elon are working on the premise that Gates is wrong, they have actual experience building EV's while he does not.

Yes, every semi is not loaded to the maximum weight, but a lot of them are because to not load them fully is missed income--and they typically charge by weight.

 

[vikings123]

Gates has a personal issue with Elon, that's all this is about. You would think a billionaire who claims to care about climate change would be above something this petty. I guess not. Big $ = bigger ego.

Unfortunately I only hold index funds in my 401k which doesn't have any access to Tesla directly. I think I'll just move to other funds that track the Nasdaq or Russel etc. I've never cared for these secret committees of self anointed oracles. You see the same kind of crap in Hollywood with the awards panels.

Lot of companies are now offering a Self directed brokerage account(SDBA). Some SDBAs even allow option trades, mine doesn’t.

If your employer does not offer one you should try submitting a request. I switched to an SDBA in Feb and honestly it’s the best decision ever made, other than TSLA of course

 

[Christine69420]

Can we create a new topic called Bill Gates and his fetish for trucks topic away from this thread?

There is already a dedicated thread under Investors Discussions for the Tesla Semi:

Tesla Semi

 

[Joesantelli]

I sold some sept 11 and 18 calls

Pretty sure I will be up huge at Tuesday open I could see the iv dropping quite a bit with this s&p news out

Kinda annoying how the media is panting it as a s&p exclusion for tesla just because they didint get added.

Anyways what are your guys thoughts on immediate iv for tesl@

 

[Mike Ambler]

I strongly advise anybody thinking about doing this sort of gambling to paper trade for at least a few months to get the feel for things. And don't bet significant amounts regardless. It's best to get a few huge losses under your belt in fantasy land rather than reality. Don't ask me how I know this.

Got it, Thanks. as previously stated, I do a real good dead investor impersonation.

 

[Singuy]

Very insightful about China's demand going forward. Also a little bit of BYD earnings in the video.

 

[insaneoctane]

Bill Gates Snubs Tesla In Post About Electric Vehicles

...He added that all-electric pick-up trucks will soon be available "thanks to legacy companies like GM and Ford and new companies like Rivian and Bollinger." Tesla's Cybertruck has received widespread publicity, but it didn't even warrant a mention from Bill Gates in a discussion about electric vehicles and pickup trucks....

...Bill Gates also indirectly said the Tesla Semi probably won't work. He noted that batteries are big and heavy, and the more weight that's being moved, the more batteries that are needed, which increase the weight further. He said even as new battery technology is developed, he doesn't think EVs will be a "practical solution" for 18-wheelers, cargo ships and passenger jets. Bill Gates explained that electric vehicles work for short distances, but another solution is needed for heavy vehicles that travel long distances.​

Years ago, I read that Bill's primary goal in any staff meeting at Microsoft was to prove to everyone that he was the smartest guy in the room. (The garbage sold by Microsoft also suggests this was their corporate culture.)

Now he seems intent on proving he is the dumbest guy in the blogosphere, despite having serious competition there.

After reading that it proves to me that Gates investment in QuantumScape is absolutely meaningless.... If you were considering that stock....

 

[st_lopes]

I'm betting on profiting more from a rise in the stock price than from earning the time value. Selling puts, the time value going to zero by expiration is one thing that makes you money. That happens even if the stock doesn't go up. Writing puts that are out of the money is safer, but potentially makes you less money.

No. All I'm betting on is that the stock price doesn't go down (much). I don't need it to get anywhere near the strike price to make money.

Of course, this is all very risky. If the stock price drops significantly you can lose a lot of money. This past week I wrote puts that had the potential to make me $X, and I would break even if TSLA was above 460 (I wrote them when TSLA was at 483). I lost $5X on that bet, as I closed the position near the bottom (375). Ouch!

I strongly advise anybody thinking about doing this sort of gambling to paper trade for at least a few months to get the feel for things. And don't bet significant amounts regardless. It's best to get a few huge losses under your belt in fantasy land rather than reality. Don't ask me how I know this.

Writing an ITM put around inclusion takes a serious pair of brass danglers. I hear what you’re saying on making money even if it’s sideways, just clipping time decay. Curious to see how this one plays out with the “news” of no S&P.

 

[vikings123]

Not sure what you're saying. Obviously the option assignment will be at 410, since that was the strike price. That the buyer of the put decided to exercise may have been based on after hours news, but that was always part of the contract. As was the possibility of assigning out of the money options.

The option hasn't actually expired until some time after hours, not at close. Are you objecting to that?

When I say my break even is 395$ I’m taking into account the premium I got for selling the option(15$). That also becomes my cost basis for the shares that got assigned to me.

Not objecting but it is good to know that you can exercise your options up to 1.5 hours after close on Fridays. I also think this is one reason why there was no S&P announcement yesterday. No harm done.

 

[mrmage]

I have absolutely zero concerns about getting assigned plus my break even is 395$. I understood the risk before selling the put.

My understanding is the option exercise is based on the closing price in regular hours. I will call my broker to get a better understanding because to me this can be gamed. I guess most news do not come out on a Friday to clearly this is an exception.

The only reason I pointed it out was to give an example of the craziness that can ensue when the eventual announcement comes out. People on this forum actually predicted this(exercise of options based on AH prices) will happen.

The latest that options can be exercised should be on the brokerage web site. I was surprised as well, but it’s clearly stated.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

 

[vikings123]

Option exercise is entirely at the discretion of the entity who bought the option. OTM options are typically not exercised, but they absolutely can be exercised. As the writer (seller) of OTM an option contract, you are typically not, but absolutely can be assigned.

You can verify this for yourself by buying an OTM call and then immediately exercising it while it is still OTM. Cash will disappear and shares will appear in your account (and you will have paid more than the current market price for the shares).

Yea agreed. And this is the relevant part from a Nasdaq.com article. I think @generalenthu already pointed this out yesterday.


Question #1: what happens if the stock price moves after 4 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday? Well, this is where it starts to get interesting. As any of you who trade in the after-hours market know, stocks continue to trade after the bell. Option strikes can move from out-of-the-money to in-the-money, or vice versa.

Trust me, the professionals in this market watch this very closely. They have approximately 1.5 hours after the close to make their decision on whether or not to exercise.

 

[insaneoctane]

Trust me, the professionals in this market watch this very closely. They have approximately 1.5 hours after the close to make their decision on whether or not to exercise.

Well that pretty clearly shows that retail investors must use a dull butter knife in Wall Street's gun fight....

 

[azaz]

Is there any chance of a Monday evening announcement?

as to the IV crush, it should be mitigated somewhat because battery day is around the corner. Also if we have a -5% or so day hard to see IV going down much

 

[Mich]

Interesting. This is the sort of thing that can happen when you sell options, as the power to choose whether and when to exercise belongs to the buyer. No shenanigans, just part of the deal. It's best to understand that before you invest. I keep learning.

This may well be a costly mistake for you if you have to sell the shares quickly.

This could be for tax purposes as well. I pay 27.7% tax on profit from trading shares but variable tax for profit from options (in my case 50%). If I exercise option contracts the gains are part of the shares transaction.
(this is for Austria)