Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MC3OZ]

I'm waiting to see the math on that -- I'm assuming there will be a hit to GAAP profit due to stock-based compensation (Elon hitting the next tranche), but I'm not sure how big that is compared to expected profits excluding regulatory credits.

My optimism is based on production and deliveries, with Q3 typically being much better than Q2.

I'm also waiting to see what the experts predict here:-
Near-future quarterly financial projections

 

[Prunesquallor]

Rumors on Twitter that Chamath’s IPOB is gonna merge with Neuralink. Just a rumor for now, but IPOB did jump up this morning.

Another big jump AH.
Sumptin's up.

edit: but does anyone believe Elon will ever take a company public again?

 

[OrthoSurg]

Your only option is to start putting a lot of people on ignore. I think I’m up to 30 people. Too many people posting memes all day long or saying they sold TSLA and asking over and over when they should buy back in.

I guess that’s why my first go to post every evening is the Papafox thread. Probably the best info you can find on TSLA and analysis. It’s interesting to come here when there is a dip so see all the non longs sell off. While the longs are buying.

 

[Hock1]

The only SPAC I ever have invested in - personally, that’s coming hard on to a half-century; familially, that would be generations - is C. Palihapatiya’s first foray in this genre. That was called “IPOA” and as all should know since has morphed into Virgin Galactic.

I did this with significant trepidation, as the sole selling point was Mr P’s business acumen and his unparalleled access to much of Silicon Valley’s movers and shakers. So far, the investment has worked out for me as a reasonable buffer to our immense TSLA holdings.

Regardless, I am using this post to disparage SPACs and to warn all not to use them. Not only is Black Hole Investing (my term) fiduciarily unjustifiable in of itself, the entire structure is rife with opportunities for mischievous parties to separate investors from their funds, all without having to thread the needle of corporate disclosures, regulatory oversight and all the hard-nosed questions the investment community will throw at would-be raisers of capital during investment roadshows.

Of all the bad ideas that have come to the investment world in recent decades, SPACs are at the pinnacle of what should be made illegal.

Advice.

On edit: more on SPACs in the Nikola thread, here: All discussion of Nikola Motors

Unfortunately, I have nothing to add to the benefits/detriments of SPACs. Since 1965, when I bought my first stock, I have never invested in any kind of diversified investment vehicle until roughly a year ago when I bought ARKK and ARKG (they are both up about 100% since then). I have always invested heavily in individual companies, over long periods of time, that I have thoroughly researched and know very well. Having read about your experience, it only adds to my belief that significant money invested in individual companies over the long term is the way to build wealth. Sounds easy but, as many here are finding out, it's not.

Edit:First (& Most Important) Rule Of Investing: Master The Art Of Doing Nothing

 

[c041v]

Man, the rain just wrecked that place. STILL nothing going on.

People seem to appreciate my take on these things and may appreciate some variety among the NKLAQ and S&P posts, so here goes;

There's a few factors working against a site like this when it comes to precipitation;

- The equipment is actively grading the site with what appears to be zero positive drainage (i.e no rainwater will run off the site as it would with say a roadway, ditch or anything else that isn't designed to be perfectly flat) As a factory floor needs to be perfectly flat, and is eventually enclosed, so it's a gamble with the weather to construct these types of projects. It also does not make sense to grade it for positive drainage as you will eventually have to level it properly for the eventual concrete slab.

- As a side note, my current project in Vancouver utilizes near 100% dredged river sand that works beautifully against this sort of thing as it is a free draining material (rain goes right through, and wheeled equipment can drive on it rain or shine) but that is largely a function of local material availability.

- The material the large earth-moving equipment (Scrapers, bulldozer and, articulated haul trucks) are handling appears to have a very small grain size, likely a silt or clay like material, which is notoriously poor in terms of a running surface when saturated with water. It's great to move when it is dry or near optimum moisture*, but for reasons associated with the point above, it really just makes sense to wait it out. The problem is that wheels/tracks will simply pick up the material and ruin the already accomplished efforts and create twice the work to restore what they have done.

- You can use additives like lime to dry the material, and gravel/aggregate can provide a running surface, but those are both very costly as a function of their proximity to the site. Cubic dollars can solve this, but it's usually only done for small areas and if something is schedule critical. You could use a grader to "peel" off the top layer of saturated material, but you will then have to do something with that material in terms of hauling it away, which is costly and wasteful. Again, waiting things out is really the best option here.

The good news is that there is some work happening! The pile -driving-looking rigs are in fact not pile drivers, but Excavators with a special attachment for something called "Stone Columns". These machines are uses to effectively inject aggregate into the lower soil strata to provide a more competent sub-grade in terms of bearing capacity, normally through vibratory means, although soil mixing variations through mechanical means exist as well. It means there won't be any piles, at least for part of the site. It's a pretty common technique for areas with poor ground conditions and does provide resistance of sorts against liquefaction during a seismic event. Not sure that's the intent here, probably more for the bearing capacity, the technique itself is referred to as "ground densification" and does exactly what the name implies - makes things denser so they can support more weight. Dense = good.

You can see the telehandlers loading aggregate from nearby piles into the feed bins located a ways down on the attachment arm. That's what all the aggregate is for. This type of work is unimpaired by rainfall events.

*In case you noticed the water truck watering the material on drier days, what's going on here?! Too wet today, too dry yesterday? In essence, yes. There's an optimum moisture content for fine grained materials that hugely impacts their work-ability as it concerns heavy civil projects like this; Atterberg limits - Wikipedia

My references (again): Same toys, different Sandbox.

More relevant: I cancelled that sell order I had earlier this week and bought more the very next day

 

[Prunesquallor]

...
- The material the large earth-moving equipment (Scrapers, bulldozer and, articulated haul trucks) are handling appears to have a very small grain size, likely a silt of clay type material, which is notoriously poor in terms of a running surface when wet.
...

Yep, we call it Texas Gumbo. Beneath a couple of feet of topsoil, it's red clay.

 

[dl003]

Another big jump AH.
Sumptin's up.

edit: but does anyone believe Elon will ever take a company public again?

not sure but since Neuralink won't be generating any revenue for a while, if Elon was going to take it public, there would be nobody better than Chamath for that undertaking, IMO.

 

[smorgasbord]

AH seems to be our friend.

Probably just a preemptive move to max pain.

Or, maybe something to do with options, since options are not traded After Hours?

 

[djy]

Another big jump AH.
Sumptin's up.

edit: but does anyone believe Elon will ever take a company public again?

False alarm. Turns out IPOB will be taking Opendoor public, not Neuralink.
Opendoor In Talks to List Via Social Capital II Merger

 

[FYMR]

I agree, but I think the best way to approach it now is to ignore the S&P element entirely. It doesn't affect the performance of the company, the number of batteries it's producing or any objective aspect other than SP. We all want SP to continue through the roof, but since it relies on the whim of others, the best policy is to just ignore it unless/until it happens. It's a potential upside surprise and that's all.

I totally agree. I said this to a friend today that is in this forum.

It happens when it happens. I have removed from any forecast or prediction or wish.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

People seem to appreciate my take on these things and may appreciate some variety among the NKLAQ and S&P posts, so here goes;

There's a few factors working against a site like this when it comes to precipitation;

- The equipment is actively grading the site with what appears to be zero positive drainage (i.e no rainwater will run off the site as it would with say a roadway, ditch or anything else that isn't designed to be perfectly flat) As a factory floor needs to be perfectly flat, and is eventually enclosed, so it's a gamble with the weather to construct these types of projects. It also does not make sense to grade it for positive drainage as you will eventually have to level it properly for the eventual concrete slab.

- As a side note, my current project in Vancouver utilizes near 100% dredged river sand that works beautifully against this sort of thing as it is a free draining material (rain goes right through, and wheeled equipment can drive on it rain or shine) but that is largely a function of local material availability.

- The material the large earth-moving equipment (Scrapers, bulldozer and, articulated haul trucks) are handling appears to have a very small grain size, likely a silt or clay like material, which is notoriously poor in terms of a running surface when saturated with water. It's great to move when it is dry or near optimum moisture*, but for reasons associated with the point above, it really just makes sense to wait it out. The problem is that wheels/tracks will simply pick up the material and ruin the already accomplished efforts and create twice the work to restore what they have done.

- You can use additives like lime to dry the material, and gravel/aggregate can provide a running surface, but those are both very costly as a function of their proximity to the site. Cubic dollars can solve this, but it's usually only done for small areas and if something is schedule critical. You could use a grader to "peel" off the top layer of saturated material, but you will then have to do something with that material in terms of hauling it away, which is costly and wasteful. Again, waiting things out is really the best option here.

The good news is that there is some work happening! The pile -driving-looking rigs are in fact not pile drivers, but Excavators with a special attachment for something called "Stone Columns". These machines are uses to effectively inject aggregate into the lower soil strata to provide a more competent sub-grade in terms of bearing capacity, normally through vibratory means, although soil mixing variations through mechanical means exist as well. It means there won't be any piles, at least for part of the site. It's a pretty common technique for areas with poor ground conditions and does provide resistance of sorts against liquefaction during a seismic event. Not sure that's the intent here, probably more for the bearing capacity, the technique itself is referred to as "ground densification" and does exactly what the name implies - makes things denser so they can support more weight. Dense = good.

You can see the telehandlers loading aggregate from nearby piles into the feed bins located a ways down on the attachment arm. That's what all the aggregate is for. This type of work is unimpaired by rainfall events.

*In case you noticed the water truck watering the material on drier days, what's going on here?! Too wet today, too dry yesterday? In essence, yes. There's an optimum moisture content for fine grained materials that hugely impacts their work-ability as it concerns heavy civil projects like this; Atterberg limits - Wikipedia

My references (again): Same toys, different Sandbox.

More relevant: I cancelled that sell order I had earlier this week and bought more the very next day

Where do I subscribe to your Patreon?

 

[djy]

Your only option is to start putting a lot of people on ignore. I think I’m up to 30 people. Too many people posting memes all day long or saying they sold TSLA and asking over and over when they should buy back in.

Problem with ignoring is that it doesn’t get rid of the replies to an ignored post. And then I sometimes wonder what that reply was in regards to and I end up clicking on “show ignored content”, so in the end I end up burning more time than I would have if I didn’t ignore!

Maybe you could just post all of your ignored member list and try to publicly shame them into behaving better.

 

[new_sneakers]

@ReflexFunds has lots of info here:
https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1304086141042413571?s=21

A great thread worth reading, as is usual with @ReflexFunds - for those who can't access it, the size of the impact of accounting for Elon Musk's CEO stock tranches is not affected by the current stock price, but by how many operational milestones are expected to be reached.

So it is likely to be a $70 million impact this quarter -

unless they now expect an additional (fifth) milestone to be reached, meaning they would have to play catch-up and add ~$10 million for each of the past six quarters, making it around $130 million or so this quarter.

Then in Q4 either around $70 or around $80 million.

These numbers might be a bit off - go and read @ReflexFunds ' Twitter thread linked above for better information!

 

[gabeincal]

Page when I google Tesla News. What do you all think about the piece of wood holding a Model Y condenser....?

 

[CLK350]

Another big jump AH.
Sumptin's up.

edit: but does anyone believe Elon will ever take a company public again?

What's up with the AH action after the 4 PM close?

There is the possibility of the Hindenburg report debunking in detail Trevor Milton's fraudulent past, Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America after being digested overnight by GM's staffers, gets Barra, *if she has any sense*, to back away from GM's deal this next morning Fri 10th - in which case NKLA really tanks and some people figure out Tesla is the real deal.

Hence a real possibility of a morning bump for TSLA. If the macros aren't too negative I don't see the MMs being able to squelch that rise and hold the surge down for a 4 o'clock close at 400. They will then hold the line @ 450, next best thing they can do. Some other relevant activity:

 

[Bet TSLA]

Page when I google Tesla News. What do you all think about the piece of wood holding a Model Y condenser....?

View attachment 586928

I think: "Who cares?" Anybody who does care should schedule a service appointment and complain.

 

[mongo]

Page when I google Tesla News. What do you all think about the piece of wood holding a Model Y condenser....?

View attachment 586928

There is a thread on the topic:
Found this little gem on my $55K Model Y

 

[dl003]

Page when I google Tesla News. What do you all think about the piece of wood holding a Model Y condenser....?

View attachment 586928

Would it have been better if Tesla painted it white? If the adequate part was already abundant and cheap, I'd be upset as a shareholder if Tesla didn't clean every HD in a 500 mile radius. Now, I don't know anything about engineering so I'd defer technical judgment to the more savvy among us.

 

[UCF3]

What's up with the AH action after the 4 PM close?

There is the possibility of the Hindenburg report debunking in detail Trevor Milton's fraudulent past, Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America after being digested overnight by GM's staffers, gets Barra, *if she has any sense*, to back away from GM's deal this next morning Fri 10th - in which case NKLA really tanks and some people figure out Tesla is the real deal.

Hence a real possibility of a morning bump for TSLA. If the macros aren't too negative I don't see the MMs being able to squelch that rise and hold the surge down for a 4 o'clock close at 400. They will then hold the line @ 450, next best thing they can do. Some other relevant activity:


View attachment 586925

This reminds me of my favorite quote of 2020. The NYU professor Damodaran who said “Nikola exists to make TSLA look cheap”

 

[22522]

People seem to appreciate my take on these things and may appreciate some variety among the NKLAQ and S&P posts, so here goes;

There's a few factors working against a site like this when it comes to precipitation;

- The equipment is actively grading the site with what appears to be zero positive drainage (i.e no rainwater will run off the site as it would with say a roadway, ditch or anything else that isn't designed to be perfectly flat) As a factory floor needs to be perfectly flat, and is eventually enclosed, so it's a gamble with the weather to construct these types of projects. It also does not make sense to grade it for positive drainage as you will eventually have to level it properly for the eventual concrete slab.

- As a side note, my current project in Vancouver utilizes near 100% dredged river sand that works beautifully against this sort of thing as it is a free draining material (rain goes right through, and wheeled equipment can drive on it rain or shine) but that is largely a function of local material availability.

- The material the large earth-moving equipment (Scrapers, bulldozer and, articulated haul trucks) are handling appears to have a very small grain size, likely a silt or clay like material, which is notoriously poor in terms of a running surface when saturated with water. It's great to move when it is dry or near optimum moisture*, but for reasons associated with the point above, it really just makes sense to wait it out. The problem is that wheels/tracks will simply pick up the material and ruin the already accomplished efforts and create twice the work to restore what they have done.

- You can use additives like lime to dry the material,

Lime can be used to treat soils to varying degrees, depending upon the objective. The least amount of treatment is used to dry and temporarily modify soils. Such treatment produces a working platform for construction or temporary roads. A greater degree of treatment--supported by testing, design, and proper construction techniques--produces permanent structural stabilization of soils.

Lime will turn it into different stuff.
https://www.graymont.com/sites/defa...per/lime_treated_soil_construction_manual.pdf

More lime.