Interesting Twitter thread from Snow Bull Capital. Have not heard of them before but apparently they were 98.1% accurate on their P&D estimate last quarter. They are forecasting 168.9k total production and 157.5k total deliveries for Q3.
https://twitter.com/snowbullcapital/status/1311757704948584464
The CEO of the firm has interesting color on Giga Shanghai. Twitter thread is linked and his findings are below:
https://twitter.com/TaylorOgan/status/1311761299366387721
In China, MIC SR+ Model 3s are already rolling off the line with CATL’s LFP batteries. Interestingly, the new batteries weigh the same as LG Chem’s batteries in MIC LR RWD Model 3s.
In terms of MIC Model Y, the Fremont Model Y assembly engineering team has been at GF3 during the factory ‘shut down’ last week building NEW Model Y lines (not retooling existing Model 3 lines, as many thought).
The Model Y lines are going to be nearly identical to the most recent Model Y line at Fremont, at first. That won't take long.
Also, retooling for the new Kuka robots has already begun at GF3. The same German engineering team that programmed the Kukas at Fremont (and GF1 & GF2) worked alongside the Tesla Model Y assembly engineering team from Fremont during last week’s factory shut down.
In addition to the German Kuka team, the Japanese Fanuc team was also ‘retooling’ (programming) the new Fanuc robots at GF3 at the end of August. We believe this was primarily on the Model 3 lines.
We expect this to inevitably increase production efficiency as it did when similar lines were retooled with the same Kuka and Fanuc robots at Fremont, increasing production efficiency by 55-60%.
So, with GF3 being more automated than Fremont, the addition of the new robots to the already-highly automated Model 3 lines could get production up to >800/day (+60%).
This, and the addition of a third shift DURING the Chinese national holiday starting last night (when most thought it would be completely shut down for the next week) increases our Q4 estimates for Model 3 production out of Shanghai to 62,855.
One of the indicators we will be looking for in Q4 is weaker
#Model3 demand in China due to the impressive domestic EV competition, namely BYD Han and Xiaopeng P7.
Such an indication of decreased demand would be if GF3 begins exporting MIC Model 3s to South Korea in Q4. If domestic demand for MIC Model 3s is REALLY weak, we could see retooling of Model 3 lines for RHD in Q4.
We don’t expect Tesla to retool GF3 Model 3 lines for RHD until Q1 2021. We think the RHD retooling will likely take place during the Chinese New Year, as initial RHD retooling took 8 days in Fremont.
