Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[oldTAVguy]

I love how CNBC won't talk about the fact that volume is very light....I mean....if these "retail" investors were the ones driving up the stock so much, they should easily be able to drive it up farther on this low volume

It is CNBS.

 

[Paul_SF]

“No mercy/ no malice” ... right

Tulips to Tesla | No Mercy / No Malice

the professor was wrong when Tesla was at less than 50bill, he’s wrong now still.

no mercy/ no malice/ no clue ...

 

[gene]

RIP Borealis 2006-2020

I have been raising malamutes for four decades and, while of course every one of them was special in his or her own way, not only was he the most outstanding Alaskan malamute I ever have known, but his grace, his gentlemanliness, his sensitivity to especially his mistress’s loves, fears, worries and pains, his astonishing ability to make us laugh at his antics, and his absolute gentleness to go with his massive frame - I never will see his equal in any dog of any breed.

Even in his passing, he was able to do so with the utmost solicitude, gently falling into a coma yesterday, while at home, and passing on just at dawn.

He and his littermate sister had as lucky a life as a dog can have, spending most of their time on this earth exploring the high boreal forest and the endless tundra that surrounds our high-elevation home and, when we wintered in Arizona, able freely to explore six fully fenced acres.

Each year, thousands of our guests would take back to their home countries hilarious stories and videos of the two clowns enthusiastically singing along to my or Jenny’s playing the harmonica; they would greet each set of guests by answering to “What’s your name?” with Aurora responding “A-roo-roo” and Borealis a baritone “Bo!”.

The world got a chance to watch Borealis when he appeared in a Jeep commercial that was shot on our compound - I’ll never get over not receiving a copy of that ad for our files.

Most wonderfully, when in 2010 the legislature named the Alaskan malamute as the official state dog, our biggest newspaper, the Anchorage Daily News, put this photo of Borealis on the front page.....where it stayed for an entire year (my once and shortly-reappearing avatar). Borealis was THE state dog.

Farewell Bo. The world is a dimmer, grayer place without you.

edited to correct date. Thanks, mongo

Audie, I am sorry to hear about the passing of Borealis. I remember meeting both your wonderful dogs a couple years back. You did provide Borealis as wonderful a life as any dog could have..

 

[Singuy]

I think it's time to seriously consider the massive opportunity with FSD not being priced into TSLA.

If the public sees Tesla's driving door to door with without interventions for most trips, that will change. When interventions are rare, people will accept that Tesla robotaxies are a certainty even if it takes years longer.

This is a trillion+ market, which is many times higher than Tesla's market cap. With passable FSD, Tesla would immediately take the defacto lead, if not ownership, of this market.

The reason why people may not take this seriously is because they've heard it before and haven't see the progress. However, we must consider the source of the news.

EM's recent tweets on FSD are different from past ones, because EM in 2020 under-promises and over-delivers.

On battery day, he let people know the tech was years out, when it's now obvious he was sandbagging. Similarly MY production was early and the scale of GFs is larger than expected.

When he says private testing with FSD rewrite is coming in a few weeks with no interventions, I believe they're close. Perhaps public betas EOY or Q1.

If the public betas work well, I can see a run to 2x, 3x SP or more in 2021. Moreover, the increase could happen over a short period.

Most of all, this would be a relatively predictable event. As investors, we should consider strategies to make the most of this.

Well one thing to consider is that he sandbags when the product had the ability to osbourne. FSD is exactly the opposite of this and he uses FOMO to sell this since Tesla went the FSD prepaid route. So I wouldn't put too much weight on extrapolating that he somehow changed in 2020. He is just being a very good sales man.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I'm too busy to look into this - visiting my mum for the weekend. But if anyone else wants to then Norwegian used cars are sold here:

Tesla Model 3 - Biler til salgs | FINN Bil

and Tesla's Norwegian website is found here:

Elektriske biler, solenergi og ren energi | Tesla

Mods: I hope this is ok as I'm trying to demonstrate anti-FUD of comparing used/new prices and that the lower 'sales' in Norway for a certain month and other cherry-picked facts are related to SUPPLY and not demand.

I looked for the cheapest used Long Range. So around 10% cheaper to buy a 2019 with 55-75,000 km (34-47,000 miles in one year, which is a LOT). That's kind of a worse-case. So then I looked at most expensive and saw 105% - not sure if it has FSD though.

Tesla Norway site

USED 2019 Model 3
Long Range firehjulsdrift
54.917 km kilometerstand
Drammen
kr. 453.500 - 90.86% of new

NEW Model 3
Long Range firehjulsdrift
Mindre enn 50 km kilometerstand
Drammen
kr. 499.142


Other used site
Tesla Model 3
2019 - 11750 km
525 000 kr - 105.18% of new

Tesla Model 3
2019
75805 km
MODEL 3 75KW Long Range AWD
Totalpris
435 000 kr- 87.15% of new

 

[insaneoctane]

Still holding /creeping upward @433. Wonder when MM will crash the party with their uninvited Friday antics?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Still holding /creeping upward @433. Wonder when MM will crash the party with their uninvited Friday antics?

We're probably near max pain, so just hold the fort and these guys are all set. Maybe $428 or so.

 

[HG Wells]

We're probably near max pain, so just hold the fort and these guys are all set. Maybe $428 or so.

Last time I looked maxpain was 421.
Should start pushing it down at 2.
Don't think they will get it below 427-428.

 

[computerchuck]

We're probably near max pain, so just hold the fort and these guys are all set. Maybe $428 or so.

That's kinda what I'm thinking as well. Not a ton of up movement this week that held steady.

Disclosure: I have written many $480 calls expiring 23 Oct.

 

[adiggs]

“No mercy/ no malice” ... right

Tulips to Tesla | No Mercy / No Malice

the professor was wrong when Tesla was at less than 50bill, he’s wrong now still.

no mercy/ no malice/ no clue ...

There are points here that are relevant and worth keeping in mind. At the market / economy level (aggregate, or average), this is all spot on. It doesn't always go up, and keep going up. In fact it can't. The thing to always keep in mind about averages / aggregates - there is stuff that is below the average, and there is stuff that is above the average - it's not all the same.

On the other hand, and the basis of my own crazy concentrated investment in TSLA, none of these sorts of posts address the specific of this 1 particular company, but instead use it as an example of all that is wrong right now (Tesla as tulips - I even get the analogy). The big difference being that while tulips are nice (I like tulips!), they don't provide me with economic benefit; tulips don't fill the same economic role in society as transportation, energy, etc..

Tesla provides me and many others with economic and joie de vivre benefit. And as a business, Tesla has a distinctly stronger foundation than others.


One of the big mistakes I see people making - regarding Tesla, regarding O&G, coal - most any business you care to name; conflating unit demand with value demand, and value of companies filling that demand.

Sure Toyota and VW are supplying unit demand far in excess of Tesla's unit demand fulfillment. Tesla is filling that demand from the top down (outsized revenue per unit demand supplied). Tesla is supplying unit demand with something so much better than anybody else is using to supply that unit demand, that customers are willing to pay a premium price (shows up in used car value retention among others).

And all of that adds up to investors paying a premium to own a slice of the company (market value in excess of a predicted value based purely on supplied units).


In the coal business, they started seeing a small decrease in unit demand in the mid 00's (2007?). That small decrease in demand (33% of US primary energy down to ~20% today) has corresponded with something like a 99.99% market value reduction for the companies filling that demand (i.e. - serial bankruptcies, consolidation, taking public companies private). Unit demand down 25% - market value of demand suppliers virtually 0.

Units can be a BADLY misleading unit of value.

 

[Todd Burch]

Astonishingly low volume. We will close at around 1/3 volume of the average day--and that average has been dropping lately!

 

[CorneliusXX]

RIP Borealis 2006-2020

I have been raising malamutes for four decades and, while of course every one of them was special in his or her own way, not only was he the most outstanding Alaskan malamute I ever have known, but his grace, his gentlemanliness, his sensitivity to especially his mistress’s loves, fears, worries and pains, his astonishing ability to make us laugh at his antics, and his absolute gentleness to go with his massive frame - I never will see his equal in any dog of any breed.

Even in his passing, he was able to do so with the utmost solicitude, gently falling into a coma yesterday, while at home, and passing on just at dawn.

He and his littermate sister had as lucky a life as a dog can have, spending most of their time on this earth exploring the high boreal forest and the endless tundra that surrounds our high-elevation home and, when we wintered in Arizona, able freely to explore six fully fenced acres.

Each year, thousands of our guests would take back to their home countries hilarious stories and videos of the two clowns enthusiastically singing along to my or Jenny’s playing the harmonica; they would greet each set of guests by answering to “What’s your name?” with Aurora responding “A-roo-roo” and Borealis a baritone “Bo!”.

The world got a chance to watch Borealis when he appeared in a Jeep commercial that was shot on our compound - I’ll never get over not receiving a copy of that ad for our files.

Most wonderfully, when in 2010 the legislature named the Alaskan malamute as the official state dog, our biggest newspaper, the Anchorage Daily News, put this photo of Borealis on the front page.....where it stayed for an entire year (my once and shortly-reappearing avatar). Borealis was THE state dog.

Farewell Bo. The world is a dimmer, grayer place without you.

edited to correct date. Thanks, mongo

Sorry for your loss.

I grew up on a farm in Australia and we always had 5+ kelpies around for stock work. Even though most dogs are wonderful, there's some that are truly special - they seem to be able to anticipate just want you need. It's a sad day indeed when you are deprived of that gift.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

There are points here that are relevant and worth keeping in mind. At the market / economy level (aggregate, or average), this is all spot on. It doesn't always go up, and keep going up. In fact it can't. The thing to always keep in mind about averages / aggregates - there is stuff that is below the average, and there is stuff that is above the average - it's not all the same.

On the other hand, and the basis of my own crazy concentrated investment in TSLA, none of these sorts of posts address the specific of this 1 particular company, but instead use it as an example of all that is wrong right now (Tesla as tulips - I even get the analogy). The big difference being that while tulips are nice (I like tulips!), they don't provide me with economic benefit; tulips don't fill the same economic role in society as transportation, energy, etc..

Tesla provides me and many others with economic and joie de vivre benefit. And as a business, Tesla has a distinctly stronger foundation than others.


One of the big mistakes I see people making - regarding Tesla, regarding O&G, coal - most any business you care to name; conflating unit demand with value demand, and value of companies filling that demand.

Sure Toyota and VW are supplying unit demand far in excess of Tesla's unit demand fulfillment. Tesla is filling that demand from the top down (outsized revenue per unit demand supplied). Tesla is supplying unit demand with something so much better than anybody else is using to supply that unit demand, that customers are willing to pay a premium price (shows up in used car value retention among others).

And all of that adds up to investors paying a premium to own a slice of the company (market value in excess of a predicted value based purely on supplied units).


In the coal business, they started seeing a small decrease in unit demand in the mid 00's (2007?). That small decrease in demand (33% of US primary energy down to ~20% today) has corresponded with something like a 99.99% market value reduction for the companies filling that demand (i.e. - serial bankruptcies, consolidation, taking public companies private). Unit demand down 25% - market value of demand suppliers virtually 0.

Units can be a BADLY misleading unit of value.

This is a wonderful comment!

At the end of the day, we bought a product (Model S) that has literally transformed the way my family (and some extended family) view transportation. I can now do a 7 hour road trip and still feel fine at the end of it. We also bought a product that "fuels" our Model S (Tesla Solar panels) that has a determinable payback period. This product also came with batteries to displace our gas generator that was getting lots of infrequent use to make for a seamless electrical backup when the power goes out. Our food doesn't spoil, our heat/AC works, our lights and internet stay on. The batteries likely won't have a very good pure payback period, but neither does a traditional nat gas generator.

Tesla products and services have literally changed our lives and outlook on employing alternatives to fight human-caused climate change. Comparing TSLA to tulips or Pets.com is a terrible analogy, IMO.

 

[Causalien]

Probably off topic, so moderators move it if it bothers you.

Just brainstorming here. I want to start putting out prediction prices, but don't want it to end up affecting the market. So it'll have to be not readable until the date of the prediction at which time price will be revealed. It'll have to be something that I cannot change so that readers can be assured that I cannot change the price. Any good idea on how to do this?

 

[Curt Renz]

Astonishingly low volume. We will close at around 1/3 volume of the average day--and that average has been dropping lately!

Indeed, and that should aid those capable of manipulation.

It's Friday, which means expiration of weekly options. Posted MaxPain figures are based on pre-opening data and true MaxPain can shift throughout the day.

A cursory survey suggests that currently the greatest number of call owners facing expiration would be hurt by a close today under $435, while the greatest number of put owners would be hurt by a close above $430. So big option writers (mainly hedge funds and market makers) capable of share price manipulation may try to keep TSLA within that range at the close. Of course news or sudden investor interest could upset their plans.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Probably off topic, so moderators move it if it bothers you.

Just brainstorming here. I want to start putting out prediction prices, but don't want it to end up affecting the market. So it'll have to be not readable until the date of the prediction at which time price will be revealed. It'll have to be something that I cannot change so that readers can be assured that I cannot change the price. Any good idea on how to do this?

Are you talking about TSLA pricing? I wouldn’t worry about this thread having enough muscle or interest trying to sway TSLA pricing based on your prediction.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Are you talking about TSLA pricing? I wouldn’t worry about this thread having enough muscle or interest trying to sway TSLA pricing based on your prediction.

I agree, just put out your predictions here and we will hold you accountable

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Probably off topic, so moderators move it if it bothers you.

Just brainstorming here. I want to start putting out prediction prices, but don't want it to end up affecting the market. So it'll have to be not readable until the date of the prediction at which time price will be revealed. It'll have to be something that I cannot change so that readers can be assured that I cannot change the price. Any good idea on how to do this?

There's a predictions thread somewhere in this forum.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think it's time to seriously consider the massive opportunity with FSD not being priced into TSLA.

If the public sees Tesla's driving door to door with without interventions for most trips, that will change. When interventions are rare, people will accept that Tesla robotaxies are a certainty even if it takes years longer.

This is a trillion+ market, which is many times higher than Tesla's market cap. With passable FSD, Tesla would immediately take the defacto lead, if not ownership, of this market.

The reason why people may not take this seriously is because they've heard it before and haven't see the progress. However, we must consider the source of the news.

EM's recent tweets on FSD are different from past ones, because EM in 2020 under-promises and over-delivers.

On battery day, he let people know the tech was years out, when it's now obvious he was sandbagging. Similarly MY production was early and the scale of GFs is larger than expected.

When he says private testing with FSD rewrite is coming in a few weeks with no interventions, I believe they're close. Perhaps public betas EOY or Q1.

If the public betas work well, I can see a run to 2x, 3x SP or more in 2021. Moreover, the increase could happen over a short period.

Most of all, this would be a relatively predictable event. As investors, we should consider strategies to make the most of this.

Absolutely! It's time to consider that FSD isn't priced into Tesla stock.

And that the market is forward-looking, but only as far as it thinks it can see. What this means is that FSD will be priced in long before it has regulatory approval. It will happen when people see a large enough improvement in FSD behavior that they can personally see that it WILL happen, that it's just a matter of time. Right now many think that point is far in the future (or will never happen with the current sensor suite). But a sudden improvement in self-driving capabilities will cause investors to re-asses the situation and the share price will follow.

 

[Curt Renz]

CNBC - this morning: