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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Stupid question...what is the more important number between GAAP and Non-GAAP profit? Why such a difference?

For a fast growing company, I tend to think the non-GAAP numbers are a better representation of the business; GAAP numbers tend to be a better long term view into a company that is more stable (probably positioned in a more stable market too).

The real answer gets into accounting, and I believe that every investor needs to have at least a basic understanding of accounting principles. Stuff like double entry bookkeeping, debits / credits, expense / capital, and reading financial statements (income statement, balance sheet, cash flow statement) as well as understanding how these are different and why they are essential and complementary for understanding a business.

I also believe there are any number of online primer / education sources for this sort of education, and I expect they'll run between 2 and 8 hours (it's not hard, but it's not trivial). And I've probably freaked out a few accountants along the way (note - I'm not an accountant, nor do I work in anything resembling that field).


For myself, with such a long term view of the company, any particular quarterly financial numbers are largely irrelevant. To the degree I notice, I care that top line revenue is heading the right direction, and that bottom line income (whether GAAP or non-GAAP) is heading in the right direction. The bottom line should be increasing faster than the top line (more efficient use of capital as factories go from partial capacity to full capacity).

And I tend to focus more on year over year results vs. quarter over quarter. The year over year does a better job of accounting for the seasonality that is common to many businesses, including auto.
 
S&P inclusion is a must at this point. Another blowout 4Q report plus 2x production guidance and TSLA will move beyond $500B market cap. These fools will look even worse, if that's remotely possible.

I guess we should've loaded up on calls today! Ah well.....

So here we go with the capping. I'm guess $500 by early Friday, then a pushdown to $485 by Friday close, and a drift up to $520 by end of next week. Another $15 on top if we get a stimulus bill.

Good times. Well done Elon and team!
 
S&P inclusion is a must at this point. Another blowout 4Q report plus 2x production guidance and TSLA will move beyond $500B market cap. These fools will look even worse, if that's remotely possible.

I guess we should've loaded up on calls today! Ah well.....

So here we go with the capping. I'm guess $500 by early Friday, then a pushdown to $485 by Friday close, and a drift up to $520 by end of next week. Another $15 on top if we get a stimulus bill.

Good times. Well done Elon and team!

I'm a bit contrarian on this. I don't want immediate S&P inclusion. I want the argument of "TSLA is only profitable because of regulatory credits" to stick around a bit longer.

Why? Because when S&P inclusion then happens later, it will be an unbelievable squeeze on the shorts. To the point I hope it sends them into bankruptcy.

Yeah . . . I hold grudges. :D
 
Hmmm... seems like an interesting time for Ally to want permission to lend my shares today:

upload_2020-10-21_14-22-53.png
 
Installed annual capacity for Model 3 in Shanghai increased from 200,000 (as listed in the Q2 shareholder deck) to 250,000 (Table on page 7 in Q3 shareholder deck).
Given that the footprint for Model Y buildings in Shanghai seems to be ~2 times larger (or more?) than Model 3 buildings, the annual installed annual capacity from Shanghai could be at least 750,000 units.
I remember seeing estimates for around 1 Mil. units for Shanghai, which seem more and more possible.
 
Not sure if noted, but energy storage revenue was 759 million. A 3 billion dollar company within the company only limited by supplies to build product. Q4 could be the first billion dollar quarter for TE.

**TE is only 558 million. The 759 was MWh deployed. Still over 50% quarter over quarter growth, which would peg Q4 about 750-800 million for TE.

Shanghai is now producing at capacity? Did they just say they’re build ~5000 MIC Model 3s a week? They have added a 3rd shift for MICM3, will they project increased capacity goals?
 
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So, earnings beat Wall Street expectations -- as usual.
Therefore, we can expect a dip tomorrow -- as usual.
Just, because, Logic!

To the degree his happens, it's pretty standard buy the news, sell the rumor behavior. It happens to many / most companies.

The more interesting dynamic to watch for is the next 1 to 3 weeks after earnings - that's when I expect the earnings + guidance to be better represented in the share price.
 
I'm a bit contrarian on this. I don't want immediate S&P inclusion. I want the argument of "TSLA is only profitable because of regulatory credits" to stick around a bit longer.

Why? Because when S&P inclusion then happens later, it will be an unbelievable squeeze on the shorts. To the point I hope it sends them into bankruptcy.

Yeah . . . I hold grudges. :D
Yes, I am on precisely the same page. Would kinda prefer them to hold off and make it worse, but I got deez Nov20 calls I need to sell!!!!

Seriously though, the committee working out their options later this week and early next will likely see there's no way out except to go right now. Picture TSLA as a $500B market cap behemoth after 1Q21. Largest publicly traded energy company in the world, largest auto manufacturer in the world, still next in line behind......Etsy. Lol!

It kinda needs to happen now. Ain't gonna happen over the holidays, and do we really want to wait until 500k deliveries is announced on Jan 2? Fun times.
 
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