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https://twitter.com/elonmusk/with_replies?lang=en-gb

Tweet: "Elon the update feels 10X better than the prior version. How does this UI enhance the actual improvements on the road?"

Elon: "We measure this primarily in intervention probability. This update addressed several issues, resulting in perhaps ~1/3 fewer interventions. Many of the improvements consist of fixing silly bugs vs grand eureka moments. True for most beta releases in my experience."

Tweet: "How fast do you think you will be rolling out updates for FSD beta?"

Elon: "Every 5 to 10 days"
 
Has been a reliable source of information in the past. Has family member working in Nevada.
YIFYSubtitles.org - ultimate subtitles source
Screen Shot 2020-10-31 at 11.14.47.png
 
Has been a reliable source of information in the past. Has family member working in Nevada.
YIFYSubtitles.org - ultimate subtitles source
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Presumably they are referring to pack production rather than cell production? That would mean that GigaShanghai has received new pack production lines after initially starting out with the original GigaNevada line,

Has anyone seen how much input Tesla has on cell production by LG, CATL, Pana?
 
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Reactions: Mike Ambler
Presumably they are referring to pack production rather than cell production? That would mean that GigaShanghai has received new pack production lines after initially starting out with the original GigaNevada line,

Has anyone seen how much input Tesla has on cell production by LG, CATL, Pana?

It would be strange to add a new 2170 pack making machine in Shanghai if they are moving to 4680s. IMO these machines are complex and expensive for 2170.

4680 packs seems to be much easier to make, that means cheaper pack making machines and the added benefit of a structural pack.

CATL LFP packs are probably easy to build, that means some LG 2170s can be shipped to Nevada. Nevada can convert some lines to 4680.

What Carsonight means by that comment is hard to guess.
 
Tweet: "How fast do you think you will be rolling out updates for FSD beta?"
Elon: "Every 5 to 10 days"

So based on the Dojo video a couple of posts back, they run the training computer 2 or 3 times per release. With Dojo at full speed daily updates :eek:

As a possiblist (but having learned only from the many videos), it seems hard not to imagine a pretty compelling FSD in 12-24months, at least in reasonably well regulated countries.

I wonder if you could count (will we see?) a "days per nine" count?
 
So based on the Dojo video a couple of posts back, they run the training computer 2 or 3 times per release. With Dojo at full speed daily updates :eek:

As a possiblist (but having learned only from the many videos), it seems hard not to imagine a pretty compelling FSD in 12-24months, at least in reasonably well regulated countries.

I wonder if you could count (will we see?) a "days per nine" count?

It is possible that the FSD beta is being trained on a partially built Dojo.
Final Dojo can apparently train 3 times per day.
Yes, in theory that could mean daily updates.

The other thing that might be different is they can just update the NN weights produced by training without a software update.


Prior to Dojo training takes longer. 7 days?

If this is true, as Dojo is progressively built, training will accelerate, improved versions will come faster.
 
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It is possible that the FSD beta is being trained on a partially built Dojo.
Final Dojo can apparently train 3 times per day.
Yes, in theory that could mean daily updates.

The other thing that might be different is they can just update the NN weights produced by training without a software update.


Prior to Dojo training takes longer. 7 days?

If this is true, as Dojo is progressively built, training will accelerate, improved versions will come faster.

1. Using Dojo as opposed to the existing trainer they may be moving from running training in 72h to running [the same] training in 7h, but
2. They are not running the same training, if only because they are shifting from '2.5D' to '4D'. and we are unsure if the 72h > 7h is a like-for-like comparison or also takes the 2.5>4D shift into account, and
3. But anyway as they shift more and more of the driving task into the central network, as opposed to being in separate modules, then the training task becomes larger. At least it does until a portion becomes sufficiently solved that it can be set aside for a while (i.e. training sessions will concentrate on other aspects until they too are sufficiently solved, then they will iterate around the mission space picking up edge cases in some sort of priority sequence).
4. Dojo shouldn't be thought of as being one monolithic computer. For sure it may (??) be capable of operating in that manner, but more likely it will be better to think of it as several computers each of which addresses part of the training process, e.g. self-labelling; running training; edge-case identification; etc.
5. It is unlikely that they will ever just dump new netweights in during a software update. They would almost always want to restructure the net.
6. But bear in mind it is over 30-years since I last worked on NN controllers (boy does that make me feel old), but I don't think the issues have changed (because we could see these issues even back then).
7. It is great to see all this coming to fruition.
8. Have a think about this for a moment. For about the next 10-years, the essential barrier to entry in the FSD game - quite apart from amassing the required data sets and feedback loops - is the ability to design/build/operate one of the world's largest supercomputers, either using mission-specific chipsets or paying extra for the overhead of generic chipsets. At any given moment there are probably only about a couple of dozen organisations able to play in that league, and only a handful of them will be in the first division, and most of them have other objectives (aerospace, nuclear, whatever) and there are only so many people that are viable hires for these organisations. The barrier to entry for competitors will likely get bigger, not smaller, for the next ten years (as competitors need to be comparable to Tesla before being able to credibly launch in the FSD marketplace).

regards, dspp/pp
 
2. They are not running the same training, if only because they are shifting from '2.5D' to '4D'. and we are unsure if the 72h > 7h is a like-for-like comparison or also takes the 2.5>4D shift into account

was thinking the same as I wrote the original post. I guess the gist is that the march (can we already say of 9s) is on and surely in 2yrs we will have a bunch of 9s.
 
I'm pretty sure it doesn't drive. In fact, in the Doug DeMuro review, you can clearly see that it is plugged in with an extension cord. I would bet the cord is "shore power" and that there's no functional battery powering the lights and systems.

Ah, another thing in common with the Nikola Semi... probably learned that trick from Milton too:

25.png
 
So based on the Dojo video a couple of posts back, they run the training computer 2 or 3 times per release. With Dojo at full speed daily updates :eek:

As a possiblist (but having learned only from the many videos), it seems hard not to imagine a pretty compelling FSD in 12-24months, at least in reasonably well regulated countries.

I wonder if you could count (will we see?) a "days per nine" count?

See post from @Mike Smith above: Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable, linking to Elon's tweet https://twitter.com/elonmusk/with_replies?lang=en-gb

Cutting interventions by 33% every 5..10 days means increasing the time elapsed between interventions by 50% with every S/W iteration. They need 1/log(1.5) = 5.679 iterations for a 10-fold increase of the interval between interventions. Roughly one '9' every month if they can keep the initial pace. Every two months in Elon's pessimistic estimate.

Let's assume a conservative by the car every 2 minutes as of today. One accident every 10 years should be good enough to count as mission accomplished (fatal accidents would be a small fraction of that). 10 years = 5.256 million minutes. This equals to 5.256/2 improvement over current capabilities or log(2.63M) of '9's, resulting in 37 iterations.

TL;DR: FSD in six months maybe, one year definitely.

(Edit for clarity)
 
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1. Using Dojo as opposed to the existing trainer they may be moving from running training in 72h to running [the same] training in 7h, but
2. They are not running the same training, if only because they are shifting from '2.5D' to '4D'. and we are unsure if the 72h > 7h is a like-for-like comparison or also takes the 2.5>4D shift into account, and
3. But anyway as they shift more and more of the driving task into the central network, as opposed to being in separate modules, then the training task becomes larger. At least it does until a portion becomes sufficiently solved that it can be set aside for a while (i.e. training sessions will concentrate on other aspects until they too are sufficiently solved, then they will iterate around the mission space picking up edge cases in some sort of priority sequence).
4. Dojo shouldn't be thought of as being one monolithic computer. For sure it may (??) be capable of operating in that manner, but more likely it will be better to think of it as several computers each of which addresses part of the training process, e.g. self-labelling; running training; edge-case identification; etc.
5. It is unlikely that they will ever just dump new netweights in during a software update. They would almost always want to restructure the net.
6. But bear in mind it is over 30-years since I last worked on NN controllers (boy does that make me feel old), but I don't think the issues have changed (because we could see these issues even back then).
7. It is great to see all this coming to fruition.
8. Have a think about this for a moment. For about the next 10-years, the essential barrier to entry in the FSD game - quite apart from amassing the required data sets and feedback loops - is the ability to design/build/operate one of the world's largest supercomputers, either using mission-specific chipsets or paying extra for the overhead of generic chipsets. At any given moment there are probably only about a couple of dozen organisations able to play in that league, and only a handful of them will be in the first division, and most of them have other objectives (aerospace, nuclear, whatever) and there are only so many people that are viable hires for these organisations. The barrier to entry for competitors will likely get bigger, not smaller, for the next ten years (as competitors need to be comparable to Tesla before being able to credibly launch in the FSD marketplace).

regards, dspp/pp
Dumping network weights work fine and no need to restructure nets when you have more data. Unless you are running something safety critical where you need to hash to verify that builds are correct and no code has been tampered with, which Tesla has to do. But I assume that they can just recompile the software 1.0 code and push that once the new weights are ready.

I think the lombardy street drive highlights that it might not be enough to output a list of waypoints, you need a list of poses and these will be different for a Model 3 and a Cybertruck. Maybe they will have to do a rewrite of the control, do some form of search rather than a more direct calculating the lateral translation and optimize that with an MPC or whatever Tesla is doing right now.


Like Elon is saying, it’s good to release, see what are the real problems, see how customers are using the product and get real useful data. And Tesla are great that they allow themselves to be antifragile. Every crash will make Teslas safer, every embarrasing bug will make the cars more robust. While competition is too afraid to ship...
 
Yeah, SP rode the Lower-BB from Mar 9 to Mar 18. I recall you were going to buy back in around $400? These are all pre-split numbers so we're up a comfortable 5x (my CAGR is still 200% today)

View attachment 604003

At any rate, since we didn't bounce up hard off the Lower-BB, I expect we'll ride it again for some time until there is more certainty on the U.S. elections, and the Coro thing settle down (Tech is the LEAST affected sector of the Economy, doh).

Also, there are forces lobbying the S&P Committee to delay, since TSLA churn is their crack habit. I expect S&P is hoping for a buying opportunity after a soft Q1 2021. Little do they know that Tesla will almost CERTAINLY have to claim their Valuation Allowance for deferred tax assets beginning in Q1 if it turns out that the entire 2020 FY is profitable. The ~$1.5B Tesla will be forced to claim on the Income Statement will put an end to that foolishness. I still think the Committee is missing a Golden opportunity to add TSLA into the NDX slot made available upon the merger of Tiffany and LVMH (but there's those Lobbists).

HODL. ACCUMULATE. HIBERNATE.


HAH! :rolleyes:
Sorry for this radical, inflammatory OT political post, but...

@Artful Dodger for president!
 
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Request for a PM assist from anyone who has a solution for my problem. We (wife &I) have been giving our $15K max tax free gift in TSLA stock to each child and grandchild. The problem is we have two minor grandchildren in Australia. Their parents have a joint E-trade account so no problem for them but they can't get an E-trade account for the two minors in Australia. We can't setup a custodial account in US without a US social security number. Any ideas? Thanks in advance.
 
It is possible that the FSD beta is being trained on a partially built Dojo.
Final Dojo can apparently train 3 times per day.
Yes, in theory that could mean daily updates.

The other thing that might be different is they can just update the NN weights produced by training without a software update.


Prior to Dojo training takes longer. 7 days?

If this is true, as Dojo is progressively built, training will accelerate, improved versions will come faster.
I wonder if they will change the way software updates work on the cars then. Right now a software update takes 20+ minutes where you can't move the car at all. This is fine for weekly or monthly updates but if they plan on pushing new FSD code daily they need to come up with an update method which doesn't disable the whole car for half an hour at a time.