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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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With regard to the long term fundamentals of Tesla: demand can only increase

People's attitudes to pollution are changing. This will have far-ranging effects on local governments, insurers, fossil fuel, environmental protection, recruiting staff etc. In particular, this will lead to restrictions on fossils (including banning ICE from whole areas) and more support for EVs and Tesla

Shell in court over claims it hampered fossil fuels phase-out

rather than quote extensively, here are some of the main points:-
  • court in The Hague / Royal Dutch Shell / Dutch law
  • knowingly fought global phase-out of fossil fuels
  • high CO2 emissions
  • claimed is breaching article 6:162 of the Dutch civil code
  • violating articles 2 and 8 of the European convention on human rights –
  • the right to life and the right to family life
  • causing a danger to others
  • Shell responsible for c. 1% of global emissions
  • company is investing billions more in oil / gas
  • internal and external documents
  • Shell known about climate change since the 1950s and large-scale consequences since 1986
  • was seeking to become more sustainable in the 1990s
  • changed course in 2007 - most polluting fossil fuels including shale gas.
  • public relations campaigns to mislead (have you see their shoite on twitter?)
  • lobbied against ambitious climate action and policies.


Air pollution where girl died in London 'should have been treated as emergency'
Very sad case of 9 year old who died in 2013 of pollution/asthma in London

  • Coroner / inquest into Council (local government), transport authorities and more
  • article 2 – the right to life – of the Human Rights Act (similar to above)
much more at link, I don't feel I can do a good job of summarising it
I find all this stuff from Shell confusing and my emotions are all mixed up because here in the Dallas area if you want to get Tesla solar, you have to use the energy company MP2. MP2 is sourced only from renewables and also has a 12-3 am time for free charging with your EV. Shell has now owned MP2 for a few years, even though I've been told MP2 gets to run it's own operations and Shell is basically their financial backing. So I don't know what to think with the link between Tesla - MP2 - Shell....I just have to focus on the long game...
 
VW is apparently considering firing Diess.

https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1333480966472523785?s=20

VW Diess.JPG
 

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No idea why but somebody likes $580.

Lots of people think we will have cheap gas for a long time, even many who see the EV revolution happening. I wonder how cheap gas will really be after these oil companies are hit with climate change lawsuits that make those doled out to the tobacco companies look like pennies. Not to mention additional taxes to assist victims and pay for clean agendas.
A splendid topic we'll be talking about for all of 2021 in the "shorting oil" thread. Should be really interesting once the collusion falls apart and it's every gal for herself. There is ZERO money is refining right now, and none on the horizon. Frackers are making ZERO money right now, and likely never will again over any significant operations window.

Once Saudi Arabia and Russia realize it's optimal for them to simply pump like mad forever, that will end a lot of other more expensive production as we move from the current consolidation phase into the bankruptcy phase. THEN it gets really interesting. As the Saudi's lose control of their "country" due to lack of revenue, does the whole thing explode? Some crazy stuff will happen, and though no one will be "making money" in oil, there will be insane volatility as the market fragments and crumbles. WTI will trade in a $10-$200 window....lol!

I foresee oil volatility ratcheting demand for EVs as we edge toward 50% of new car sales being EV in 2024-2027. If it don't happen in 2024, a nice spike to $6 gas in 2025 will certainly help drag that tipping point forward! Good times.
 
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A splendid topic we'll be talking about for all of 2021 in the "shorting oil" thread. Should be really interesting once the collusion falls apart and it's every gal for herself. There is ZERO money is refining right now, and none on the horizon. Frackers are making ZERO money right now, and likely never will again over any significant operations window.
The real issue is the cost of clean up because the companies are bankrupt and the small amount put into cleanup funds won't begin to cover it.
 
Hmmm, when is the %age weighting of $TSLA in the S&P being set, is that today after market close? If yes, might this be the reason behind the immense effort to keep it down?

Just wondering...
I think you're on to something here.... the way they're hammering the SP down as we head for today's close is hardcore.

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This is really interesting. Tesla average battery size will reduce over time whilst others will increase massively. Tesla can then sell more cars for a given kWh increase whilst others can sell fewer. Tesla share of EV market will trend up rather down. Could they get to 35%?...
I'm starting to think Tesla could end up with 35% market share by unit sales. Suppose they hang on to 35% of battery supply, but continue to grow unit sales. Eventually, every automotive segment will be dominated by EVs. As that happens, Tesla will tend to enter a segment from the larger battery size. This grabs share from ICE, but erstwhile ICE makers will scramble to get enough battery supply to compete for EV space within that segment. But eventually, they will have to rise to the pack sizes that Tesla offers to lock in their EV share of the segment. Thus, longer term Tesla will compete in all segments, and EVs in all segments will offer the same ranges or pack sizes. And if Tesla holds 35% of the battery supply, it also hold about as much of share of unit sales. But more importantly for Tesla investors, Tesla will enjoy the advantages of holding higher revenue share at lower pack cost for quite a long while. Share of unit sales is just not as important as share of gross profit.
 
A couple thank you's for the board today:

1) I was finally able to put some sell orders into Fidelity by using contingency orders. You can't set a sell order for more than 50% above current SP, so I set a contingency sell at $1042 by establishing a trigger at $850(both levels within 50%). I'm selling shares 5 at a time starting at $1042 and stopping at 15% of my shares if we cross $1200 :)

2) Thanks for the QS (QuantumScape) tip, up 42% since someone here pointed out their SPAC IPO. Interesting sector to keep an eye on. Retail investors, any really most institutional as well, don't appreciate how vital cell/pack tech and innovation will be moving forward. I could see an ultra-desperate Ford/GM/Others overpaying by quite a bit for these battery firms real soon. Anyone have other similar battery companies you think will be ripe for acquisition? I guess a good question for the "other tech stocks" thread.

Thanks for the help folks!
 
Honestly except for the Monday morning MMD I think we are seeing normal action.

Traders probably got spooked because of the dip today and are likely just waiting for the 5:15 decision just to remove any "uncertainty". Once the "uncertainty" is over you will see them accumulate again. Traders love to book profits and typically have no clue about the company's fundamentals and/or S&P dynamics. They just read a news snippet and make decisions based on that. They do however play a key role in price discovery.

Shame, it felt very comfortable in the $600's :)

Still can't imagine selling today, doesn't hold any logic. Will be interesting to see the %age attributed to short-selling.

On the other hand, a little pull-back never did much harm along the way, and we did get an ATH open and ATH in main-market, let's keep that trend up tomorrow.

Word on the street is that it's 2x tranches, which might bring-forward some volume buying...

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