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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
I love SpaceX, but this thread is not for SpaceX. But this one is: SpaceX
The stock showed weakness in AH. 591 is the 10 day EMA which should provide great support.
That said I will not be surprised to see some shenanigans in pre market tomorrow setting up a bear trap. Or maybe the AH action today was a bear trap.
20 day EMA is 550 IF we get down to those levels.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
If we get to $550 this week and $700 calls 3 weeks out aren't priced more reasonably, I'll be quite angry. I have no problem with this volatility, it's just supremely frustrating I can't wager on it. Simply don't have the cash to drop on 300 trading shares.
Last edited:
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I decided it was a buy opportunity for more calls. I went ahead and entered a couple of orders tonight. Since I'm not up with the market open, I figure that'll give me a chance at even more calls. This time, I went pretty close in with the strikes - 12/18 expiry and 620 / 630 strikes.
I also doubt they'll fill, but I can hope.
For information on Quantumscape compared to Tesla watch these videos:-
Short answer Quantumscape definitely has some R&D breakthroughs that probably make commercial solid-state batteries viable.
However, Tesla's Battery Day tech is very competitive, Quantumscape now has to clear a much higher bar.
It isn't clear whether Tesla or Quantumscape will have better cheaper batteries in 5-10 years time, it is clear Quantumscape not have a significant impact for at least 5 years.
Short answer Quantumscape definitely has some R&D breakthroughs that probably make commercial solid-state batteries viable.
However, Tesla's Battery Day tech is very competitive, Quantumscape now has to clear a much higher bar.
It isn't clear whether Tesla or Quantumscape will have better cheaper batteries in 5-10 years time, it is clear Quantumscape not have a significant impact for at least 5 years.
NY State pension fund divesting fossil fuel stocks. This story lists specific tar sands and fracking stocks that may be sold off...
State getting out of oil stocks
"According to the Youth Climate Leaders group, the firms that will come under scrutiny and which may be sold off in coming years include the following. For tar sands: Imperial Oil, Canadian Natural Resources, Husky Energy, Suncor Energy, MEG Energy Corp., Athabasca Oil Corporation, Cenovus Energy, Japan Petroleum Exploration, and Tatneft.
Shale oil and gas companies (which also use hydrofracking or fracking) include Devon Energy, Continental Resources, QEP, and Pioneer.
Integrated oil and gas companies include multinational giants like Exxon/Mobil, BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron, as well as equipment and service firms like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes."
I'll try to find the Shorting Oil thread and post this there.
State getting out of oil stocks
"According to the Youth Climate Leaders group, the firms that will come under scrutiny and which may be sold off in coming years include the following. For tar sands: Imperial Oil, Canadian Natural Resources, Husky Energy, Suncor Energy, MEG Energy Corp., Athabasca Oil Corporation, Cenovus Energy, Japan Petroleum Exploration, and Tatneft.
Shale oil and gas companies (which also use hydrofracking or fracking) include Devon Energy, Continental Resources, QEP, and Pioneer.
Integrated oil and gas companies include multinational giants like Exxon/Mobil, BP, Shell, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron, as well as equipment and service firms like Schlumberger and Baker Hughes."
I'll try to find the Shorting Oil thread and post this there.
Not sure if this was covered in an earlier post but Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research downgraded to hold from buy. To me it’s reasonable since the share price has surpassed his price. When he upgraded and set his price target, TSLA was trading in the 400 range and it didn’t have much impact. I’m sure the downgrade will be in many headlines though.
One of Tesla’s Long-Time Bulls Says It’s Time to Take Profits
One of Tesla’s Long-Time Bulls Says It’s Time to Take Profits
Congo Line
(not the dance)
Does anyone know if Pierre takes into account the impacts of autonomous driving, energy, and solar on valuation by 2026?
davecolene0606
Member
hmmm, S&P folks need shares mantra turns to sell....
Don’t
Fire Away!
(It’s STILL the batteries, Stupid)
Today and this week so far provides a good opportunity to repeat a point I have made in the past.
As we see the share price back at where it was Friday, and watch it moving about 10% up and down in the interim, most in this forum, are understandably very sanguine. We all have low cost basis, tremendous belief in the long term value, and some of us have sliced and diced the S&P dynamics a million ways and killed a few brain cells in the process.
At large shops, the process tends to be more simplistic. Let's start with the index funds. It is - buy a day before inclusion for the most part. If they can get it a second before inclusion, they'll gladly take it. Price be damned.
At S&P benchmarked funds it's not too different. They probably just buy a generic basket and go long / short names they think can generate alpha. For several, tsla is too big and hard. So check the box to stay market neutral. Fun fact: Jim Chanos uses S&P as a overlay on his funds. Probably his benchmark. So he'll be getting at lest some offsetting exposure via SPY.
At smaller shops like event driven or other places, they live and die by controlling risks and speculating in a very disciplined way. For them sharpe ratio (look it up if not familiar) is the gold standard. They can only allocate a certain percentage of their capital to one trade. And if the volatility is large, they will be even further constrained in what they can allocate. Even the evangelistic ARK has a very light ~10% allocation. Baron is the exception that proves the rule.
So as I see head scratching around why people are selling ahead of inclusion, I submit that is pretty natural. In fact, the large gain in Tesla coupled with the recently increased volatility will force several risk managers to push their portfolio managers to trim tesla exposure. With no index buyers in sight yet, a PM wouldn't want to bet her job or run afoul of her risk manager in search of that extra 1% return she may generate. And I also think this makes some sense from an institutional perspective. Their objective is not to maximize return. Its risk management first and foremost and most return within those risk constraints. (And I see the downgrade to hold from Pierre Ferragu as I am about to hit post. "Institutional mechanisms" at work)
The ramification is, given the demand at inclusion, it seems very unlikely that sufficient front running has happened. If anyone got overextended, the recent volatility would have reminded them to fall in line via institutional mechanisms.
Personally, I feel the fireworks next week are still on schedule. if it stays around here or dips tomorrow, I may nibble a bit more. May be we should start a Tslaholics anonymous.
As we see the share price back at where it was Friday, and watch it moving about 10% up and down in the interim, most in this forum, are understandably very sanguine. We all have low cost basis, tremendous belief in the long term value, and some of us have sliced and diced the S&P dynamics a million ways and killed a few brain cells in the process.
At large shops, the process tends to be more simplistic. Let's start with the index funds. It is - buy a day before inclusion for the most part. If they can get it a second before inclusion, they'll gladly take it. Price be damned.
At S&P benchmarked funds it's not too different. They probably just buy a generic basket and go long / short names they think can generate alpha. For several, tsla is too big and hard. So check the box to stay market neutral. Fun fact: Jim Chanos uses S&P as a overlay on his funds. Probably his benchmark. So he'll be getting at lest some offsetting exposure via SPY.
At smaller shops like event driven or other places, they live and die by controlling risks and speculating in a very disciplined way. For them sharpe ratio (look it up if not familiar) is the gold standard. They can only allocate a certain percentage of their capital to one trade. And if the volatility is large, they will be even further constrained in what they can allocate. Even the evangelistic ARK has a very light ~10% allocation. Baron is the exception that proves the rule.
So as I see head scratching around why people are selling ahead of inclusion, I submit that is pretty natural. In fact, the large gain in Tesla coupled with the recently increased volatility will force several risk managers to push their portfolio managers to trim tesla exposure. With no index buyers in sight yet, a PM wouldn't want to bet her job or run afoul of her risk manager in search of that extra 1% return she may generate. And I also think this makes some sense from an institutional perspective. Their objective is not to maximize return. Its risk management first and foremost and most return within those risk constraints. (And I see the downgrade to hold from Pierre Ferragu as I am about to hit post. "Institutional mechanisms" at work)
The ramification is, given the demand at inclusion, it seems very unlikely that sufficient front running has happened. If anyone got overextended, the recent volatility would have reminded them to fall in line via institutional mechanisms.
Personally, I feel the fireworks next week are still on schedule. if it stays around here or dips tomorrow, I may nibble a bit more. May be we should start a Tslaholics anonymous.
Something tells me he's going to be switching it back to a Buy with a new PT in about a month and half (Q4 earnings and 2021 guidance), possibly as soon as 3 weeks if Q4 P/D number's come in higher than expected.
He should have just waited a month to see how that plays out.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I wasn't aware of quad witching day coinciding with beginning of the 3 day buying window. So that'll be interesting to see. Two major forces going at each other. Who will win? Personally I think Quad witch will win.
Quad witching exacerbates volatility in the broader markets, but I do not think it has any specific relevance to TSLA at least from a first order perspective. And the second order impact may be positive. So I wouldn't think of them as going against each other. We'll see.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Oh.... interesting, I never checked volatility premium during this time. I always look at quad witching as a day where the stock price gets easily pegged at a certain predictable number. It's looking like either $600 or $620 for next Friday.
Benzinga - hour ago: Tesla Could Be Headed For $716 As Momentum Stocks Recover, Technical Analyst Says
Someone from somewhere with significantly more capital and firepower probably called him and said: "Hey Pierre, remember the time i told you to buy XYZ stock and you made $$$$$ from it...well, it's time to repay that favor...downgrade $TSLA so we can buy in at a cheaper price before S&P...wink, wink"
Mo City
Active Member
Jeff did a split shift and shot a second video at Austin today. First one was at 5:00 am.
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