Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Rob did explain it all very well.

What I would like to understand better is why the frontrunners would not demand very high prices.
Rob says it is because they don't want to get left with the shares after all index funds are satisfied.
That may be the 'practical' reason, and it may actually work.
Still, it seems there will be an opportunity for some frontrunner sellers to purposely retain those shares, knowing the likelihood of residual index fund demand. After all, their goal for participating has to be profit from high prices.

I don't know the answer, but putting this out there; in case useful or someone can help.

Limit sells on closing - where you specify a minimum price to sell at vs market sells/buys.

The closing cross seems to attempt to get the maximum number of shares traded & the price goes up/down in order to bring them in.

Sellers could have a mix of limit & best/market sells.I wonder if having a ladder of limit sells could raise closing cross price in a squeeze? Most buys by indexers would not have max prices attached, so they buy at whatever the closing cross price is.

So potentially buy demand is inelastic (on the special day of Friday 18th) but sell supply is elastic depending on price.

Overall, I haven't a clue. For me, I have a 2.5 hour window each day to decide (UK trading/broker restrictions). In general I am full-on HODL, but I have use for some money soon - but only if TSLA spikes, even then not too bothered as I believe it will look cheap in the mid-term future. My pure guess is that Monday will be the higher price as demand not satisfied on Friday close. Not advice, I'm clueless & likely wrong.
 
All doom and gloom @TMC has been a very bullish signal since forever.
Tesla joining SP500 is nothing special and will behave like any previous inclusions.
With a twist or two due to size that will only enlarge the problems and swings.
This year's rise had nothing to do with the inclusion but everything with company performance that broke the FUD dam.

Every trick in funds playbook were already there when twitter, FB, yahoo, ... joined.
Where was the front-running then?
 
Buckle up guys. The Green Hulk is coming today!! $TSLA to mars! :cool:
IMG_20201217_145101.jpg
 
Tesla China now producing Model Y. 44 finished cars on site. End of video shows next major phase of expansion in adjacent melon field is underway


It has not yet been confirmed that the construction on the watermelon field is for Tesla, I consider it is highly likely due to a construction access road being created from the Tesla site.
 
seriously -- you mean I can trade options AH if I call my broker? Or are you referring to exercising?
No one can trade TSLA options AH, so you're not missing anything. If theres a shortfalll at closing/AH Friday, the buying will simply flow into Monday. There will be a spike AH Friday and you can sell shares if you like, or wait til Monday and trade shares/options.
 
I’m as clueless as most of us here, but here’s my best guess of what is about to happen:

1. Regardless of what happens during the next two days including our new obsession, the Friday closing cross, the index funds will be unable to buy all they need to buy before Monday morning. (I refer everyone to the last thousand posts as to the pros and cons of this guess).

2. On Monday morning the SP shoots over $1000 until the index funds are able to buy all they want.

3. Sometime Monday the index funds stop buying and the SP drops like a rock, settling approximately at what it was pre-S&P announcement.

4. There might be smaller repeats of this on Tuesday and Wednesday, but whatever, the SP settles near what it was pre-S&P announcement.

5. We can all then stop talking about the S&P inclusion impact and focus on fundamentals, which look pretty amazing in both the near and long term.

I’m placing my very real bets on this (bought 12/24 OTM calls, sold my usual DITM calls, which I will rebuy when the dust settles). But I’m only wagering very recent winnings on this play. If I’m wrong (which is usually the case) I will kick myself and move on. I will still have plenty of powder to enable me to make my future investment mistakes.
 
What are the cons for the entities who need to buy if they can't buy all of their shares at the closing cross?
Doesn't it just mean that they need to sell more of the rest of their S&P500 stock?
So that they don't care if there is not enough offer to satisfy their demand?

Because if they think the stock will go up a bit because there will not be enough offer and there isn't a downside to them, can they just let it happen?
 
  • Like
Reactions: UncaNed
Everything I have seen in the options market tells me we close Friday below $600. I know it sounds crazy and is probably wrong but the open interest chart shows as of close yesterday that Calls are the highest and most expensive loss at a $600 strike and above. That means that somehow the THEY (option sellers) expect this under $600. There does not appear to have been any hedging this week as the under $600 Call strikes were sold and the price and volume stayed too low. This is going to make for an interesting day today and tomorrow. I will close all my Puts I sold that are above $600, for profits, hang onto the $650 Calls I bought just in case, and still make a sizable profit with what's left over. I am guessing THEY are planning the same thing but on Friday.
I am wondering if it was THEM buying up large amounts of shares over the last months for this Fridays Hedge...... That might make sense of all this.

While none of what we KNOW matches this open interest chart... that's my best guess... it just seems like there is no way we close under $600 Friday. Things are upside down.... I mean look at the first minutes of open. EVERYONE KNOWS the SP500 is buying today, tomorrow and maybe even some next week and everyone is dumping their shares while the indexes are up? crazy things are going on.
1TSLA.png