Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[powertoold]

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

In Japan, where people don't generally drive long distances, a regular outlet for charging would be sufficient. I doubt that would strain the grid.

 

[Knightshade]

Is this all


Internal xfer of holding between funds prohibited according to Gary B.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339294115310276610?s=19

that's...not actually what he says there at all.

He says you can't do it without it being done at market pricing (and the SEC doc largely confirms that).

 

[Knightshade]

If you are going to do that why not just sell in after hrs? Wouldn’t any squeeze be reflected there?

Depends how many sellers there are.

If they need 100 shares (just using easy math #s) and only 50 sellers with a share each show up-price would squeeze higher in AH (assuming continued buying there rather than waiting on Monday).

If they need 100 shares and 150 sellers show up, only the 100 sellers with the lowest "I'll this amount of profit" number get to sell, and the other 50 are left HODLing their you know what.

 

[rallykeeper]

Is this all


Internal xfer of holding between funds prohibited according to Gary B.

https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1339294115310276610?s=19

It's only prohibited if it's not at market pricing -- for the wonks, this is known as a 17a-7 trade. Rule 17a-7 is trying to make sure neither fund is disadvantaged by the trade -- trades at the official closing price of an equity security are generally considered permissive.

Fund-to-fund transfer at official closing price is completely fine. Presumably, this is exactly what Vanguard will do. For VEMX, it completely solves their tracking error problem since it can sell its entire position to Vanguard S&P 500 index products -- and it mitigates the number that SPY (and its mutual fund cousins) will have to buy on the open market.

As an earlier poster observed however, there aren't that many index funds that have to sell -- VEMX (and its cousin ETF) is kind of the exception to the rule.

 

[PKOttawa]

So, I've been given some extra thought on recent news of solid state batteries, Tesla's structural batteries and everything that goes on, here is a note I came up with that I thought I'd share with the community.

Cybertruck's structural battery is just the first step.
We know that CT is incorporating a structural approach for batteries where the 4680 batteries just become a part of the structural integrity. I think this is just the first step. Where this design is going to shine is for Tesla Semi program.
I've always thought about why isn't Tesla incorporating their Semi's battery system into the trailer itself. And trailer can always be charging while being loaded/unloaded, providing minimal down time for the semi as they wait to be charged. And the answer has always come down to the fact that if we make the trailer too heavy, the possible load decreases, making it more expensive to run. But the trailer+truck itself is 35,000lbs worth of steel with a max. loaded weight at 80,000lbs. If Tesla can integrate batteries into forming the trailer bed itself, it could potentially create a trailer bed weighting not a whole lot more than 35,000lbs while retaining the same structural integrity to bear the 53,000lbs worth of load on top. This is further confirmed by Elon's comments on how he thinks about airplane design where the oil tank itself is just part of the structural integrity of the fuselage; allowing max amount of fuel loaded onto the plane while not planning for an extra part for fuel.

Solid state batteries are missing the point.
This week, we had news from Toyota that they plan to introduce an EV with solid-state batteries that's able to charge in 10min while providing decent amount of range. Similar approaches are shown by comments from QS technologies. But I think they are missing the point and put too much emphasis on EV and from a wrong POV. Tesla's battery formula program goes onto separating into 3 (or perhaps more) different type of formula depending on the need of each type of vehicle. This is not just for EV, but also the other battery programs that Tesla is currently running, namely the megapack designed for grid infrastructures. First on EV... Toyota and the others are still using the same mentality of ICE vehicles where people are used to "fill up" when they actually go into a gas station. However, as many of us with a Tesla or other EV knows, that's not the way we use EV. We charge at home when it's low and go out in the morning with a "full tank". And in long road trips or where the battery doesn't provide enough for us to get from point A to B, we charge just enough for us to get to the next charging point. This is similar to how we use cellphones. Even though we charge fully at night, if we know that given our usage, it's not going to last the day, we'd charge whenever there's a chance... just enough for us to keep going until we can fully charge it again. So, by focusing too much on charging speed, they actually forget that yes, fast charging is nice, but really what we need is many quick short burst of charges that can get us to the next point of charging. So, the need for extremely fast charging is not actually necessary. The focus should still be on the motor efficiency and longevity of the battery, which I think Tesla is right on track. Furthermore, it's always about economy of scale. The easier and more cost-efficient the manufacturing can be, whether it's the battery itself or the car as a whole, is what going to make a difference between becoming a giant in EV vs. a niche player.

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

 

[ZsoZso]

... Says expert analyst who is in the bottom 5 percentile of everyone in his trade. (But hey statistics dictate that someone has to be on the tail end of the distribution, so let's not be too hard on the guy. However, maybe his analysis should come with a caveat that his track record shows that he's really bad at his job)

View attachment 618525

Wow, he is even behind Gordo on Tipranks ?!?! Now, that is a remarkable achievement!

 

[JBRR]

 

[zeed]

that's...not actually what he says there at all.

He says you can't do it without it being done at market pricing (and the SEC doc largely confirms that).

Right. I take it to mean they have to sell and repurchase and cannot simply memo the shares internally to a different fund inside their organization.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

You're right, the competition is coming:

 

[Christine69420]

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power.

In a country such as Japan that gets most of its electricity from burning coal and natural gas, EVs don’t help the environment, Mr. Toyoda said. “The more EVs we build, the worse carbon dioxide gets,” he said.

Hilarious. So where are they going to get the hydrogen for their (basically vapourware) FCEVs? Or their amazing new solid state batteries?

Yes it is pretty silly. Japan is a modern industrialized country just like Norway. And in Norway we have exceptionally many EVs. So they did a study:

The underlying assumption is that 75 percent of all new passenger cars will be electric cars by 2030, while the remaining are rechargeable hybrids.
Even in a scenario with full electrification, electric cars will only account for 4.2 per cent of electricity consumption. It is not enough that it will have a major impact on electricity prices, according to TØI.

Japan is a long way from having full electrification of their cars. So they have plenty of time to adjust their power production. Dare I suggest solar panels and battery plants?

Source: Elektrifisering av bilparken vil i liten grad påvirke strømprisen

 

[Mike Smith]

I'm guessing the majority, if not all of today's gain is actually a response to news of the start of Model Y production in Shanghai. Wall Street wasn't expecting this until Q1, so it's big news. Combined with strong macros this is about the response you'd expect even without any S&P noise.

 

[dww12]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

If it was really 2-3 years away there would be car with them right now (ex. Roadster 1). There isn’t. Model S was 5 years after that, and the 3, 5 years after that. It’s been 12 years from 18650 to purpose built 4680. As far as now is concerned this is infinity away, and only metric that matters right now is cost.

 

[Cherry Wine]

<=$650 sell orders are shrinking considerably. 186k shares.

163k.

EDIT: 11:45 AM PT: Back up to ~185k.

 

[asburgers]

Anyone seeing this wall at 650? It's been up there for at least the past 2 hrs.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think you’re off the mark with solid state batteries.. they are a complete game changer and a vast improvement over lithium ion in every way. Of course there are challenges.. but it looks like they will become reality in a 2-3 yr time frame. Specifically these batteries have these advantages over lithium:

- Charge twice as fast meaning less waiting on long trips..
- 2-10 times the energy density.. This means they’ll enable much longer range for an equivalent battery size (Let that sink in.. this is huge)
- Better cold weather performance simplifying battery thermal management
- Highly reduced degradation.. meaning a much longer battery life
- Safer since they don’t over heat and combust..

Tesla had dumped billions into lithium battery production.. but they need a story on solid state.. This is clearly the future for EV batteries..

800 cycles? what is that? a little over 2 years if you charge every day? QS won't even be going to prod with their solid state till 2027.

 

[Todd Burch]

... Says expert analyst who is in the bottom 5 3 percentile of everyone in his trade.

FTFY.

 

[Johan]

View attachment 618548
800 cycles? what is that? a little over 2 years if you charge every day? QS won't even be going to prod with their solid state till 2027.

"800 cycles" is not nearly granular enough. From what state of charge to what state of charge? What is considered holding up for 800 cycles - 80% capacity remaining? Less? At what temperatures? Etc.

 

[Green Pete]

Wouldn’t it be fun if Tesla threw a wrench into all this madness, say by announcing a split or other interesting news.

I'm praying for v11 rollout this weekend

 

[Artful Dodger]

- Big spike tomorrow after hours, during closing cross.
- Drop back to flat after hours

This would be a spike most traders (especially option buyers) cannot profit from.

The SP fixed by the Closing Cross is NOT after hours trading. "Market on Close" Orders will sell at the Closing Cross share price, you just don't know what that exact price will be until after the close.

So, most traders CAN participate. Further, if Options contracts are moved either into- or out of- "the money" by the NOCP then that too affects Options traders.

TL;dr any "big spike" will come at the end of the main session with the closing cross, not after hours. Then, that NOCP should persist (or for at least some time After-hrs where

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

Up, up, up, up, DUMP! Weird...