Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[capster]

I’ve never had an account there. What do I get?

Umm, well you probably don’t get to participate in the class action lawsuit against RobinHood! https://www.reddit.com/r/ClassActionRobinHood/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ClassActionRobinHood/

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sure seems like Tesla is going to have a large battery problem later this year. Where will they get enough batteries to grow 50%?

Berlin hasn't even started building the battery factory yet and apparently still needs environmental reviews.

Austin is apparently doing geo-pier work for the battery building already, so it seems this one will get built first.

Austin and Berlin will both need large volume of cells in 3-6 months, presumably 4680 size.

Maybe Panasonic, LG, or CATL start making 4680 size cells for both of these factories until Tesla can get their lines up and running?

I don't see how stockpiling 4680's from Fremont would help out with the volume of Y's both of these factories will need.

Not quite sure why you think 50% growth in 2021 is in doubt because of battery supply. Their production in Q4 equates to 700k production in 2021 which is already almost 50%. They already have the batttery supply for 700k production.

 

[MP3Mike]

I don't see how stockpiling 4680's from Fremont would help out with the volume of Y's both of these factories will need.

Maybe you don't realize how big the "pilot" line is in Fremont. It is larger than all the Panasonic lines providing 18650s for the Model S&X combined.

As I recall it is about 1/3 the size of all of the Panasonic lines in Giga Nevada combined. So at full speed it should be able to support ~150k Model Ys per year. So having a more than 6 month head start on Giga Berlin opening should give them a nice stockpile to help transition the period of time until they can build the 4680 plant in Berlin.

 

[Singuy]

Sure seems like Tesla is going to have a large battery problem later this year. Where will they get enough batteries to grow 50%?

Berlin hasn't even started building the battery factory yet and apparently still needs environmental reviews.

Austin is apparently doing geo-pier work for the battery building already, so it seems this one will get built first.

Austin and Berlin will both need large volume of cells in 3-6 months, presumably 4680 size.

Maybe Panasonic, LG, or CATL start making 4680 size cells for both of these factories until Tesla can get their lines up and running?

I don't see how stockpiling 4680's from Fremont would help out with the volume of Y's both of these factories will need.

In their earning letter look at production capacity. They have enough production capacity for 1 million cars for 2021..which means enough batteries for 1 million cars. So you don't have to guess if they will have enough batteries or not. They literally tell you in the letter.

 

[JustMe]

But I've always had Schwab. Should I create a Robinhood account just so I can close it tomorrow?

Consider opening a Robinhood account just to short Robinhood after its IPO

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Sure seems like Tesla is going to have a large battery problem later this year. Where will they get enough batteries to grow 50%?

Berlin hasn't even started building the battery factory yet and apparently still needs environmental reviews.

Austin is apparently doing geo-pier work for the battery building already, so it seems this one will get built first.

Austin and Berlin will both need large volume of cells in 3-6 months, presumably 4680 size.

Maybe Panasonic, LG, or CATL start making 4680 size cells for both of these factories until Tesla can get their lines up and running?

I don't see how stockpiling 4680's from Fremont would help out with the volume of Y's both of these factories will need.

Austin will be lucky to get more than a few thousand cars produced in 2021. They are at least four months behind Berlin. So no production until Q4. At best.

Also I don't think Berlin can make more than maybe 50k cars this year. They won't start production until June at best and maybe they'll get a 2k average per week of H2.

Assuming German battery production starts in Jan 2022. Fremont need to make enough batteries for those 50k cars. But they've already started so they have 12 months to make enough for 6 months of cars.

There will hopefully also be a few thousand plaid+ that'll need some 4680 in Q4 but it'll still be less than 60k total cars for the year.

Someone else will have to do the battery size math but seems doable to me.

 

[Prunesquallor]

GM pledges to end tailpipe emissions, become carbon neutral by 2040

“Where it is not possible to remove emissions in its products and operations in the next 20 years, the automaker said it will compensate by using carbon credits, or a permit that allows GM to emit a certain amount of emissions.

GM plans to introduce 30 new electric vehicles by 2025, and spend $27 billion on electric and autonomous technologies to get there — even as it runs many North American assembly plants hard, churning out gas-powered pickups and SUVs to fatten its top and bottom lines.

GM also is building up its hydrogen fuel cell technology and recently formed a partnership with trucking manufacturer Navistar Inc. to build trucks with its hydrogen fuel cells. “

Just shoot me.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Consider opening a Robinhood account just to short Robinhood after its IPO

Dude. Singularity. Stop around.

 

[st_lopes]

I disagree on the margin. I think Semi will have higher margins that Tesla's other vehicles with exceptions such as the highest trim S/X/Roadster. It will especially have higher margins than 3/Y. The don't have to compete nearly as much on price because there is nothing else like the Semi out there and businesses will be very aware of the total cost of ownership savings.

The question is will the margin be enough to compensate for the margin of the 5 cars that could have otherwise been sold. Highly unlikely.

 

[MP3Mike]

Austin will be lucky to get more than a few thousand cars produced in 2021. They are at least four months behind Berlin.

I don't think Giga Texas is that far behind. (Especially if you count that Giga Berlin doesn't even have permits yet.) For example they are already installing an IDRA casting machine in Giga Texas, but not in Giga Berlin. (But Giga Berlin has started installing the paint shop where Giga Texas is still build the building shell for the paint shop.)

Giga Texas is also working longer hours and more days per week; so they will catch up and possibly pass Giga Berlin. (For example they have started on the 4680 plant where Giga Berlin has not.) Of course Elon said they are currently in the process of preparing the equipment supply list to order the machine necessary for 4680 production, so they may get the equipment at about the same time. (Depending on where it is sourced from and how quickly the machines can be built and shipped.)

 

[RobStark]

That is a horrible hole in the EU regs if sales to dealers = sales. I guess it will catch up to them eventually, but I see sales to dealers -> sales to customers -> sold to used car lots -> lost in the system. Looks like another compliance scam.

VW will start dumping IDs into the North Sea soon.

 

[Mo City]

An FSD reference from Andrej Karpathy perhaps?

2021 to 2020: hold my beer

https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1354982457926242313

 

[JRP3]

https://twitter.com/MartinViecha/status/1354862366630920192?s=20

 

[Tyler34]

So I just had a look at citadel's 13f and it appears Tesla is their 4th largest holding. Wonder if some of the price movement we've seen this week is due to them having to sell to cover their gme position?

 

[heltok]

An FSD reference from Andrej Karpathy perhaps?

2021 to 2020: hold my beer

https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1354982457926242313

Think it’s more about RH, IBKR, GME, AMC etc. Or possibly B117.

 

[Mike Smith]

In case there were any questions about S&P's bias against Tesla:

Will Tesla Miss Out on Inclusion in the S&P 500 ESG Index? | ETF Trends

'Tesla even received a 28 out of 100 on the S&P environmental metrics, despite its near-perfect score on carbon emissions. It ranks poorly on transparency of its environmental reporting, along with climate strategy and environmental policy and management.'

 

[Cherry Wine]

So I just had a look at citadel's 13f and it appears Tesla is their 4th largest holding. Wonder if some of the price movement we've seen this week is due to them having to sell to cover their gme position?

Citadel is a huge MM. If they go belly up, the ripples will be enormous and hard to quantify.

Citadel Securities is the largest market maker in options in the U.S., executing about 25 percent of U.S.-listed equity options volume.[48] According to the Wall Street Journal, about one-third of stock orders from individual investors is completed through Citadel, which accounts for about 10% of the firm's revenue.[15] Citadel Securities also executes about 13 percent of U.S. consolidated volume in equities and 28 percent of U.S. retail equities volume.[49] In 2014, Citadel Securities expanded its market-making offering to interest-rate swaps, one of the most commonly-traded derivatives.[50] By 2015 Citadel Securities had become the world's largest interest-rate-swap trader by number of transactions replacing Wall Street banks.[51]

 

[Singuy]

Citadel is a huge MM. If they go belly up, the ripples will be enormous and hard to quantify.

So basically this wide spread short raid may cause a market crash worst than Lehman?

 

[FrankSG]

Not sure how many here know Pierre Ferragu. He's one of the top stock analysts out there. He was on Rob's podcast once and is bullish on TSLA.

If you don't know who @FrankSG is, shame on you.

Both of them feel Tesla's growth in 2021 will be closer to 100% than 50% (which is obvious IMO). Frank goes a step further and says if the over/under is 100%, he'll take the over. I'm with him. In fact, I think there is a decent chance 2021 & 2022 both show ~100% growth.

https://twitter.com/FrankPeelen/status/1354934332360593419

Extrapolating Q4: 720k
Shanghai Y same ramp as Shanghai 3: 150k

That means you only need another 130k from Berlin, Austin, faster Shanghai Y ramp, potential increase in demand for new S & X, Semi, further Shanghai 3 ramp, and/or further Fremont Y ramp to get 100% growth in 2021.

Berlin looks like it'll start production in the first half, perhaps also some early deliveries.

And there were reports/rumors that Shanghai might produce a total of 550k this year.

Combine all this, and I'll take the over on 100% growth this year. The main risks are battery and semiconductor shortages imo.

 

[MC3OZ]

I don't think Giga Texas is that far behind. (Especially if you count that Giga Berlin doesn't even have permits yet.) For example they are already installing an IDRA casting machine in Giga Texas, but not in Giga Berlin. (But Giga Berlin has started installing the paint shop where Giga Texas is still build the building shell for the paint shop.)

Giga Texas is also working longer hours and more days per week; so they will catch up and possibly pass Giga Berlin. (For example they have started on the 4680 plant where Giga Berlin has not.) Of course Elon said they are currently in the process of preparing the equipment supply list to order the machine necessary for 4680 production, so they may get the equipment at about the same time. (Depending on where it is sourced from and how quickly the machines can be built and shipped.)

My hunch is Austin will definitely catch up, but Berlin may start vehicle production a month or 2 earlier, perhaps using cells from Fremont.

At Austin ,Tesla has a good idea how long vehicle production and cell production will take to ramp.
These sensible option is to time battery production to be ready around the start of vehicle production.
As you state, they know what machinery they need to order, and when it needs to be ordered.
Kato Rd is not far away, and experienced staff can pop over to Austin to help out if needed.

There is also some chance Panasonic or LG can make some 4680 cells.

The big picture is cell production will be ramped in Berlin and Austin some time in 2021/2022. Tesla is targeting a run rate of 200 GWh per year by the end of 2022. If they hit that target, it is smooth sailing form there, a bit of choppy water in 2021 is no big deal.

Whatever happens, all 4 quarters is 2021 should be profitable, while ramping new factories and cell production.