Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

An interesting video focusing on all the warts, many of which have been acknowledged in this forum already. Granted, some of what the host goes on about is taken out of context, though a lot of it is accurate enough. It doesn't come across as a hit piece, but a little sour grapes flavor can be detected.

Anyway, worth a watch, if for no other reason than to keep a balanced data set entering the cranium.

Alex purchased a brand new 2012 Model S.

He got a yellowing touch screen. Was upset that Tesla would not replace it or the laggy MCU for free. Says he will never buy a Tesla again.

He seems fully on board the EV revolution but that is where his perspective on Tesla comes from.

 

[Oveeus]

Totally on-board with spending some of those gains, but I'm really against depleting capital to do so. IMO you're better taking a mortgage for the property and paying it off with future gains. This is what I've done to buy a house. Interest rates are so low, it's close to free money.

Yes, there's risk of a market crash, bubble-burst, or whatever; but you can structure your portfolio to guard against that.

Not advice, just ideas and indeed, congratulations on your new place, regardless of how you find it - we all earned this place we find ourselves at right now.

not really depleting capital. As mentioned, I’m keeping a decent chunk of it, but the housing price up here is completely nuts. Bring a waterfront ID even worse regardless how little summer we actually get.

The decision was between a larger regular house (kids are growing out of our current place, hence the house hunting) without selling any tsla vs. a waterfront larger house by selling a chunk. Both still financed to the extent that our income can comfortably pay for it.

Then it came down to the idea of my original post. By sticking with ALL my tsla holding, I might be able to buy a waterfront in a snap 10yrs down. But by then, kids are off to college. What’s the point of buying a waterfront property by then?

I still have enough that if tsla becomes a 10t company, I can benefit greatly and enjoy my retirement. Just instead of flying private jets, I’d have to make do with peasants first class.

 

[NicoV]

I expect my background grin and ability to mildly laugh at coworkers telling me about the latest competition will continue to grow well after we hit my minimum retirement target. Heck maybe at some point I retire earlier without waiting for a set age to come.

I (and I think a lot of co-TMC-ers here) have become intimately familiar with the term ‘you money’.

 

[MaChiMiB]

Tesla reintroduced Enhanced Autopilot in Europe today.
3800€, incl Navigate on AP and smart summon.
FSD is 7500€ with stop sign and tragic recognition and stopping/starting.
Drive on city streets in "the near future".

 

[EVMeister]

Can confirm, also an option in the UK for £3400 (£6800 for FSD).

 

[Nocturnal]

That really seems too good to be true but if it is.....man Tesla was seriously sandbagging on 2021 guidance.

I get the sense that guidance was less about sandbagging than about ending this obsession with a set number. Sandbagging would have been "750k cars" while aiming for 900k. This is more "hey, we are growing at about 50% and don't want to see idiotic articles saying we missed our guidance when we were within half a percent."

________ Example Only________

At 25:49, his wheel rubs the curb, oopsy. Humans never do that.

FSD Beta Videos (and questions for FSD Beta drivers)
View attachment 634116

I'm not sure I've done it on previous cars or not, but I've done it at least twice with my 3. I think I get too aggressive parking close to curves in order to avoid door dings. New rims get here today so I'll be more careful with them.

 

[Khamul]

Some actually positive EV news from Denmark: an interprofessionel agreement among most charging point companies in Denmark (minus Tesla) have agreed to put up 20 000 new chargers before 2025. 20k destination chargers, 2k fast and 1k really fast (I can't recall what they're called in English). Better yet, all the charging apps must be made so that you can use and pay for other companies chargers through it, without having to download yet another app.

Probably not of much use for Tesla or Tesla-owners, but I see it as a positive step in the right direction.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I (and I think a lot of co-TMC-ers here) have become intimately familiar with the term ‘you money’.

This becomes dangerous for employers or administrators at work at some point because you are not bound to work for money and the degree of tolerance becomes less and less everyday.

 

[marvinat0rz]

...did you get the principles and examples in that post from this podcast?

No, just reasoning and a bit of healthy cynicism Margin can be super dangerous, it's not something one should use without thinking through the potential consequences first. Maybe they summarized it nicely in that podcast, I don't have the 90 minutes to check it out

I mean, I even know economists IRL that I respect, that make the case that you could use a bit of margin to enhance the returns of an index fund portfolio. But even that is something that introduces a risk of ruin that I personally would never be comfortable with.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb writes a lot about how to think about and manage risks of the type "oh, don't worry about it, that is so unlikely it will totally never happen". It's always seemed pretty obvious to me, but it's probably not that clear to everyone. I don't think it specifically has to do with risk aversion in general; I've after all owned this ridiculously volatile stock for a while. That kind of risk is comfortable enough.

 

[OrthoSurg]

Alex purchased a brand new 2012 Model S.

He got a yellowing touch screen. Was upset that Tesla would not replace it or the laggy MCU for free. Says he will never buy a Tesla again.

He seems fully on board the EV revolution but that is where his perspective on Tesla comes from.

I can’t watch Alex video sur anymore after he discouraged someone from buying an EV because they had no home charging access and in his video said she could not lose 3 hours of her time once a week to supercharge, that she should rather spent that time with her kids.

When I travelled to Washington DC and NYC the most fun time we had the kids and to go to the supercharger, play some Tesla arcade games and go for a 5km run while the car charges.

If he said, she could use that 30mins to read a book, teach some chess with the kids, go for a light jog, watch Netflix on Tesla screen...

But no he said she couldn’t afford spending 3 HOURS of her time charging at a supercharger.

O for Oil

 

[Johan]

I can’t watch Alex video sur anymore after he discouraged someone from buying an EV because they had no home charging access and in his video said she could not lose 3 hours of her time once a week to supercharge, that she should rather spent that time with her kids.

When I travelled to Washington DC and NYC the most fun time we had the kids and to go to the supercharger, play some Tesla arcade games and go for a 5km run while the car charges.

If he said, she could use that 30mins to read a book, teach some chess with the kids, go for a light jog, watch Netflix on Tesla screen...

But no he said she couldn’t afford spending 3 HOURS of her time charging at a supercharger.

O for Oil

In my first two years of owning a Model S I drove quite a lot. I charged about 85% of the miles at home over night and about 15% at SCs. I did an estimate of time spent/lost charging (5-10 seconds per plug in and out at home + all the time spent at superchargers) and then I estimated the number of times I would have had to go to a gas station to get diesel and how long that would take on average each time, doing all my filling on my way to or from somewhere. It came out to 30-50% less time spent refueling with the Model S, even though I had spent quite a few hours at superchargers.

 

[dgodfrey]

Gave it a love! I think the guy's auditioning for a job with GLJ Research.

Next-level FUD and presented really well, deserves some credit for that, every point has some basis of truth, but the devil is in the details and having that underlying knowledge that most out there don't.

In the end it reinforced my belief in Tesla - every point he brought up I was able to consider and refute, even the build-quality and customer service aspects I believe will be a distant memory going forwards.

I agree with your assessment. Not factually incorrect, but incomplete. Can't wait for SMR to eviscerate it with his response video.
Regardless, it's good to see all sides to an argument even if it's easy to disprove. I spend some time on another EV forum and the level of misinformation both intentional and ignorant, while improving, is still a full time job exposing the lies and false narratives. I will say though that defending Tesla when compared with the "competition" is like shooting fish in a barrel.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Update on Tesla Carriers this quarter.

There have been 3 carriers from San Francisco to Europe, with one due to dock in Zeebrugge tomorrow evening, there are three more due to leave SF by the third week of the month.

Two carriers have left SF for Taiwan/South Korea, one of which stopped in Taiwan and has now arrived at Korea.

Also two carriers reported from Shanghai to Europe.

Looks like they are tracking on having record deliveries to Europe (10 carriers).

 

[phantasms]

Tesla IR just released a Form SC 13G.
Blacrock with ownership of 5.3%. Is this new info?

https://ir.tesla.com/_flysystem/s3/sec/000083423721007508/us88160r1014_020421-gen.pdf

 

[zzziii]

Indonesia says Tesla hopes to join EV battery supply chain plan
Nickel resources lure interest of other makers, including CATL and LG Chem

JAKARTA -- U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla has proposed joining Indonesia's plans to create an EV battery supply chain within the country, a senior Indonesian government official said on Friday.

The government received Tesla's proposal on Thursday, Septian Hari Seto, deputy for investment and mining at the Coordinating Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Investment, said in a news briefing on Friday.

The nickel-rich country is already in talks with China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, better known as CATL, and South Korea's LG Chem regarding the plans to create its own EV battery supply chain covering the whole breadth from upstream to downstream.

"We are very excited because this Tesla lithium battery technology is among the best in the world," Seto said. "If we have investment from CATL, LG ... plus Tesla, we can learn a lot from here. Because what we ask is a transfer of technology. This is an opportunity to collaborate with three world-class companies with advanced lithium battery technology."

The deputy said there is "potential for cooperation over energy storage system with Tesla, such as "power banks of up to tens of megawatts with the idea of being able to replace peaking power plants when electricity demand far exceeds average usage."

"We can't allow [Tesla involvement] if they only want to take raw materials. [This proposal] is going beyond just taking raw materials," Seto said.

Indonesia accounts for 23% of global nickel reserves, the world's biggest. Nickel is a key material in EV batteries, and the government is hoping the reserves, along with investments from the world's leading battery and chemical companies, can help position the country as a key player in the global electric vehicle market. It is also keen to make the archipelago a hub for production of electric vehicles themselves.

Read the rest of article here: Indonesia says Tesla hopes to join EV battery supply chain plan

 

[dgodfrey]

Concrete example: you have 2000 $TSLA shares, you sell 20x Jan 2021 $1675 strikes ~92 per contract = $184k - actually I wouldn't sell these now, as premiums just took a bit of a hit, you'd time it when it's on the up, like this last Tuesday, pricing was closer to $100, so $200k to last you 12 months (enough, too much, I don't know your situation, but it's about the number I'd be looking for)

Possible outcomes:
- your shares get called away before the strike date and you receive $3.35M cash
- the SP drops, IV crushes, the premiums on these calls goes so low, you decided to rebuy them, you keep the delta with the initial premium (note that the drop accelerates towards the expiry date due to time-decay)
- you hold to expiry: a) the SP is below the strike price - you keep the cash or b) the SP is above the strike price, your shares are gone, you get $3.35M cash

It basically hinges on whether you think the SP would double over the next year and whether you'd be happy to let your shares go at that price.

If they did get called away, and you receive all that cash, then you can immediately sell cash-covered puts for more income. In the case of puts, I would sell them shorter time-frame as you can be more aggressive with the pricing, working on the basis that you want to get those shares back.

Where it gets complicated is whether you have taxes due on the realised gains in the situation where your shares get called away. In my case not, so this type of trading is a no-brainer.

I think you had mentioned that you can't roll your options but if you want to keep them from getting called away, you have to buy them back at a loss then resell up and out. Having them called away in a tax free account helps tremendously in that regard. I think I would rather have the tax free transactions than the opportunity to roll if I had to pick one.
I've recently moved some of my Roth into a self directed fund so that I can have the best of both worlds.

 

[2daMoon]

Gave it a love! I think the guy's auditioning for a job with GLJ Research.

Next-level FUD and presented really well, deserves some credit for that, every point has some basis of truth, but the devil is in the details and having that underlying knowledge that most out there don't.

In the end it reinforced my belief in Tesla - every point he brought up I was able to consider and refute, even the build-quality and customer service aspects I believe will be a distant memory going forwards.

That was my take as well. ... and this view is what inspired me to share it. Clearly there are plenty who didn't see it that way, but I find it helpful to temper optimism in order to maintain focus.

Personally, I feel that each item is, or soon will be addressed. Problems are part of business and Tesla is aware of them and constantly making strides to polish this jewel.

I understand how folks will always prefer to hear all the good stuff, and understand how someone would choose Dislike when what they see doesn't go with that. Still, I found the video useful as a punch list of things an investor could use to reinforce confidence in Tesla's foundation as the company addresses the items on it.

I still think of this as a young company with plenty to learn, despite this, the fact that they do everything from first principles is what makes them so unique. They will apply first principles to the points made here and we can expect Tesla to come up with better solutions than traditional companies would in the same situation.

 

[Mike Ambler]

In my first two years of owning a Model S I drove quite a lot. I charged about 85% of the miles at home over night and about 15% at SCs. I did an estimate of time spent/lost charging (5-10 seconds per plug in and out at home + all the time spent at superchargers) and then I estimated the number of times I would have had to go to a gas station to get diesel and how long that would take on average each time, doing all my filling on my way to or from somewhere. It came out to 30-50% less time spent refueling with the Model S, even though I had spent quite a few hours at superchargers.

Johan, I don't think I've seen anyone speak hard numbers on this before. A blog post / publishable spreadsheet would be a real FUD buster.

 

[2daMoon]

Alex purchased a brand new 2012 Model S.

He got a yellowing touch screen. Was upset that Tesla would not replace it or the laggy MCU for free. Says he will never buy a Tesla again.

He seems fully on board the EV revolution but that is where his perspective on Tesla comes from.

That is the Sour Grapes I alluded to.

 

[jbcarioca]

This becomes dangerous for employers or administrators at work at some point because you are not bound to work for money and the degree of tolerance becomes less and less everyday.

Over the decades quite a few people I have known have been in this situation and I have been myself. No person I have met who had enough money to avoid other gainful employment lacked motivation to work. People who don't have any money sometimes think that money is the sole motivation to work. That is not true. Work is it's pwn reward. In many cases, money is an accepted medium of exchange.

I have known a number of very, very wealthy people, every one of them worked alongside less wealthy people and tended to avoid obvious ostentation. Many of us on this board could change our lives due to TSLA, among other things. The vast majority of us do not seem to change much. Line workers of Tesla from the early days often continue in their jobs without change. (I personally know a few of them, but they are not very visible).

As investors in this magnificent company we might well be pleased that there are many workers and investors who value the mission above material gain. FWIW, recently I was involved in a discussion with a member of this board discussing the prospect of making TSLA a beneficiary of our wills. After all, what company is doing more to advance the cause of human survival as a species? Is not that a worthy cause?

Finally, what you describe as "...degree of tolerance..." is quite often the result of differing perspectives, not inherent stupidity or malice. In these days of serious conflict it is easy to ascribe malicious intent or deficient mental ability to people who have different opinions than have we. That is very sad.