Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SarahsDad]

I feel like something is brewing but it's not clear what it is yet

Just checked my Plaid+ reservation page and the car image is now missing. Anyone else seeing this? Maybe the Plaid+ will look different after all.

 

[Mokuzai]

Just checked my Plaid+ reservation page and the car image is now missing. Anyone else seeing this? Maybe the Plaid+ will look different after all.

View attachment 638384

Same here, it's been a broken image link for several days.

 

[kanweg]

Invisibility cloak! Elon did it! No more speed tickets. Add that to the list of cost advantages of owning a Tesla.

(Now, where did I leave my car)

 

[SOULPEDL]

Some important decision needs to be made soon? I wonder what it is and what Elon will decide.

Or he is signaling the legacy carmakers about now being last chance to get serious about BEV.

 

[lklundin]

Imagine how wonderful it would be if Tesla would announce on the Q1 earnings call that it was going to pay for the new India GF with the $1B in BTC profits, and that Tesla would reinvest the original $1.5B in Cathy Wood’s ARK funds.

While I can't really see how it aligns with Tesla's business model to buy Bitcoin, I can sort of accept the underlying rationale that it diversifies the exchange-rate-risk inherent in a multi-currency business. Maybe. Or perhaps its a clever, short term investment (announce the BTC-investment, wait for this to cause an increase in the price, then sell for a profit and be done with it).

However, I find it disconcerting when there are actual investments - or suggestions of investments - of Tesla's cash into something that is not actually aligned with Tesla's business model.

To me this suggests a belief that Tesla's cash is not best spent furthering its own business model, but better left to someone else to look after.

I belong to an unfortunately too small group of people who actually understand the meaning of exponential growth. So I understand as well as everyone else - or possibly even better - that a company that already grows by a staggering 50% annually really cannot hope to further increase that insane growth rate by spending _more_ money on growth.

But still, Tesla has some of the brightest minds around and have found innovative solutions to all kinds of different problems. So I am somewhat disappointed that they have not chosen to spend some money on aspects of their own business that would pay back in the longer run. I mean Elon Musk goes on about how it is insanely difficult to mass produce cars cheaply and that Tesla need to play a 'game of pennies' and how Tesla need to save on all aspects of its business. Fine - and I guess they got rid of their barnacles on barnacles.

Well, if Tesla has so much cash that they can't meaningfully spend it on growth, maybe they should think about how to spend it in on their own business in a manner, where it still comes back to them at a later stage.

For example, Tesla does not allow transfer of FSD from one car to another (something that I am so far unaffected by, but which is a real problem for people who total their FSD-equipped Tesla). Well, maybe the goodwill gotten from introducing conditions under which FSD could be transferred would give them more goodwill - and maybe help some doubters that FSD is actually worth it.

I have been to an understaffed, overworked service center, and I don't think I am the only one. So increasing the staffing on understaffed service centers would increase customer satisfaction.

Or what about increasing the amenities at certain superchargers, like making sure there something as simple as sufficient waste bin capacity ? Something more expensive, but excellent for Tesla's image would be PV-roofs over more supercharger stations - even if Tesla couldn't spare battery cells for storage there, they could negotiate the right to sell power back to the grid. Actually, with e.g. 3kW PV per stall, Tesla could initially accept the lower capacity factor from having no storage at all. Anyway, it should be easy to come up with ideas for how to put a bit of that cash to work, directly furthering the company's goals.

Prove me wrong.

 

[jerry33]

To me this suggests a belief that Tesla's cash is not best spent furthering its own business model, but better left to someone else to look after.

Did you really mean this the way it sounds--give the money to a "Financial Advisor"? Might as well just leave it in your checking account.

 

[Twooz]

When you come to a fork in the road, take it!

It came from this article: A Fork in the Road

 

[EVWatcher]

It came from this article: A Fork in the Road

It certainly looks to be used in the blog. But it could just as easily be a hint that Marscoin or something of that nature is under development given that yesterday his profile pic was a bitcoin anime girl.

Fork (software development) - Wikipedia
https://www.bitcoinforks.io/

Regardless, I think its unlikely to be directly Tesla related so it make sense to continue dicussing it here maybe? Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

 

[Big Time]

What we do know about Tesla & Kirkhorn & Elon is they ALL know how close Tesla was from bottoming out during the Model 3 ramp. That was very recent and fresh in their minds. When I look at some analysts EPS estimates for Q4 2021 and onward, Tesla will be raking in the money.

There is no way anyone with clout @ the Tesla conference table would not only recommend the Bitcoin transaction, but also actually going through with it WITHOUT a clear roadmap to the financials that Tesla would need for this type of investment to be both in the best interest for the company but also a SAFE investment.

Where are you all looking for quarter to quarter EPS estimates for 2021? Tired of Gary, but the man does know financials. I would like more research ideas if anyone can recommend.

I am decent at looking at automotive deliveries/revenues and margins but as soon as EPS comes into play I’m still confused where these guys get their estimates without really diving into Tesla energy expenses/operating expenses with the factory builds. All of this which I don’t have any resources for.

hoping for a green Monday, hope you all have a nice weekend.

 

[Unpilot]

The man likes a good Meme....and a joke now and then...geez.

 

[Beltsbear]

I feel like something is brewing but it's not clear what it is yet

Elon musk will fork a coin. He could fork Doge with big holders excluded. Or fork with a different mining algorithm.

 

[EVWatcher]

What we do know about Tesla & Kirkhorn & Elon is they ALL know how close Tesla was from bottoming out during the Model 3 ramp. That was very recent and fresh in their minds. When I look at some analysts EPS estimates for Q4 2021 and onward, Tesla will be raking in the money.

There is no way anyone with clout @ the Tesla conference table would not only recommend the Bitcoin transaction, but also actually going through with it WITHOUT a clear roadmap to the financials that Tesla would need for this type of investment to be both in the best interest for the company but also a SAFE investment.

Where are you all looking for quarter to quarter EPS estimates for 2021? Tired of Gary, but the man does know financials. I would like more research ideas if anyone can recommend.

I am decent at looking at automotive deliveries/revenues and margins but as soon as EPS comes into play I’m still confused where these guys get their estimates without really diving into Tesla energy expenses/operating expenses with the factory builds. All of this which I don’t have any resources for.

hoping for a green Monday, hope you all have a nice weekend.

Interestingly IF you buy MMT and velocity of money's impact on inflation then the very act of taking bitcoin as a payment system would cause Tesla's investment in bitcoin to lose value. I suspect Tesla either knows this and has thought more chess moves ahead on this somehow, or doesn't believe in velocity of money and its effects on inflation - which strikes me as unlikely.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

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I wish we could move on from BTC and bickering to the really important stuff...
Like WTF does this mean?

Seems pretty clear to me; FSD by the end of March. And I'm padding that big time. Probably by the end of this month.

 

[Mo City]

What we do know about Tesla & Kirkhorn & Elon is they ALL know how close Tesla was from bottoming out during the Model 3 ramp. That was very recent and fresh in their minds. When I look at some analysts EPS estimates for Q4 2021 and onward, Tesla will be raking in the money.

There is no way anyone with clout @ the Tesla conference table would not only recommend the Bitcoin transaction, but also actually going through with it WITHOUT a clear roadmap to the financials that Tesla would need for this type of investment to be both in the best interest for the company but also a SAFE investment.

Where are you all looking for quarter to quarter EPS estimates for 2021? Tired of Gary, but the man does know financials. I would like more research ideas if anyone can recommend.

I am decent at looking at automotive deliveries/revenues and margins but as soon as EPS comes into play I’m still confused where these guys get their estimates without really diving into Tesla energy expenses/operating expenses with the factory builds. All of this which I don’t have any resources for.

hoping for a green Monday, hope you all have a nice weekend.

Troy's latest thoughts on Q1 and all of 2021:

https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1363257880993017858

Hi everybody. This is update #4 for Tesla deliveries in Q1. My est is now,
• 177K for Q1 (was 182K)
• 857K for 2021 << 71% YOY (was 880K)

Reasons for drop:
• No Model S/X exports in Q1/Q2
• Slow Model Y ramp up in Shanghai & Fremont
• No Model 3 LR AWD in China until Q2

 

[capster]

...

Prove me wrong.

How’s about we just give Elon and Tesla the time and the space to do so and stop beating a dead horse here?

 

[InDaClub]

When you come to a fork in the road, take it!

A fork in the road, is also known as a split, in the road. It's so obvious.

 

[st_lopes]

Interestingly IF you buy MMT and velocity of money's impact on inflation then the very act of taking bitcoin as a payment system would cause Tesla's investment in bitcoin to lose value. I suspect Tesla either knows this and has thought more chess moves ahead on this somehow, or doesn't believe in velocity of money and its effects on inflation - which strikes me as unlikely.

This isn’t correct. Velocity is half the equation. Supply is the other half.

 

[StealthP3D]

I don’t necessarily see those two as mutually exclusive when it comes to BTC and sustainability. I’ve worked with several BTC miners in setting up new facilities in locations with the most affordable, accessible, and fully renewable/sustainable energy sources available.

Tesla turning jurisdictions in to self sustaining, solar producing farms can just easily help turn BTC’s power consumption in to an opportunity for advancing the mission.

The future is difficult for most investors to see. This is proven repeatedly.

Nobody gets bent out of shape because resistive electrical heating is still in widespread use. Silicon is getting so cheap that it's not that much of a leap to see that, in time, all new resistive heaters, from water heaters to hairdryers, will be high performance crypto mining computers instead of simple resistors.

 

[Mengy]

View attachment 638394

I wish we could move on from BTC and bickering to the really important stuff...
Like WTF does this mean?

Obviously he is saying this picture of a fork in the road is a metaphor for something Elon has coming.

"Metaphor Fork".

So, Elon has two major choices before him, each of which takes him down two very different paths. He is at a fork in the road.


To consolidate all of his companies under the X brand as one conglomerate, or to keep them separated and individualized? He might be making the choice very soon!




Truly, I have no idea what he is talking about.

 

[OrthoSurg]

At dir

What many are missing is that this BTC buy represents Tesla’s treasury function fulfilling its mandate of managing the company’s war chest. Most healthy Fortune 500 companies will carry more cash on hand than they need to fund their near and medium term operating requirements. That excess cash is meant to be used opportunistically or as reserves for black swan events. That cash will often be invested in T-bills or government bonds, many of which have carried near zero if not negative yield curves (especially when you consider that low interest rates would not even compensate for inflation). Treasury functions around the globe are looking for means of putting that unused cash to work and BTC is becoming the answer. It’s no longer a speculative bet. It’s a legitimately uncorrelated asset class that isn’t going to be subject to the same macro economic forces that currencies or equity markets will be. People trying to value it like other assets are just stuck in trying to compare apples to oranges.

The true unlock of value is when BTC suddenly becomes more than just an inflationary hedge. When customers and suppliers start accepting transactions in BTC, we are going to see an adoption velocity that people are going to be blind sided by. A genuine universal, frictionless, fully traceable currency. Not to say BTC is the right crypto asset to fulfill that need, but sometimes the first mover and recognizable brand wins that race, even against better use case competitors (Microsoft anyone...)?

Anyone that’s every worked with large businesses and has tried to move material sums of money between jurisdictions, particularly Asia or Latin America, can appreciate what removing that friction means to the working capital and treasury function of these businesses.

I’ll repeat... anyone liquidating their Tesla positions because of BTC are being distracted and short sighted as to where global finance and monetary policy is heading... and ultimately are forgetting that this is still the beginning of Tesla’s journey.

Like Elon tweeted.
In retrospect, it was inevitable.

Just surprised finance analysts like Gary Black doesn’t get the big picture.

I would never sell TSLA just because they have taken an edge in BTC, even if I thought it was purely speculative.
Maybe the fact I had already a portion of my liquidity in GBTC made me happy by that news but people who are selling are still doubting Elon Musk. Wouldn’t bet against him.