Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

People are overthinking the FSD subscription offering.

Yes it will start off relatively cheap in comparison to paying a one off upfront purchase. However the upfront purchase option gets you free FSD access on a vehicle for the rest of eternity. A monthly FSD subscription is only fixed for that short period - and will undoubtedly drastically increase in price once full L5 autonomy is achieved.

I also think from an accounting perspective that Tesla will likely be able to recognize 100% of subscription revenue straight away vs having to defer portion of the upfront purchase option for future features.

 

[2daMoon]

Like everyone I'm only guessing, but in relation to FSD pricing, a tiered structure based on miles of usage per month occurs to me.
I say that because Tesla doesn't want people operating 'Stealth Robo-taxis"
Assuming a Robo-Taxi drives 200 miles per day at $1 with a 50 cent profit margin,
The Robo-taxi makes $100 per day or $36,000 per year.
The Robo-taxi drives around 6,000 miles per month - I'll call that tier unlimited miles.
Other tiers are 250 miles, 500,miles, 1000 miles, 2000 miles.

Miles only count when FSD is engaged, drivers get a warning if when keeping FSD engaged would tip them over to a higher price tier.
For the high end unlimited miles option, I can see Elon keeping his promise and increasing the price of FSD to $15,000.
I'll assume monthly payments over 5 years correspond to that amount :- $250 per month.

For the low end 250 miles subscription, Tesla wants customers to try it, so $20 per month,.,,
My guess would be 500 Miles $40, 1000 Miles $75, 2000 Miles $150

Tiered pricing can be multiplied back to get the purchase price for the lifetime of the car:-
250 Miles = $1,000
500 Miles = $2,400
1000 Miles = $4,500
2000 Miles = $9,000
Obviously if a driver exceeds their miles, they get a warning and pay the difference in monthly subscription for that..
e.g purchased 500 miles per month, exceed 500 miles extra cost for that month 75-40 = $35 (+ possible $5 fee)

I'm only guessing ... but we need to balance the 2 considerations ..
A Robo-taxi can earn around $30,000 per year, and what people want to pay for private FSD use.

If an owner enrolls in the Robo-taxi fleet it would seem counter-productive for Tesla to charge monthly for FSD when they can take their cut right from the income produced and managed by their Robo-taxi software. (Lifetime FSD owners just get a bigger payout on theirs) Anyone with a Tesla should be able to push a button on the app and enlist their car into the fleet. As well as be able to set time for return, or, press a button when you need the car. (but pretty soon you will realize you don't need your car specifically and will just call the closest one instead of waiting for yours)

I like the idea of flat monthly fee for Private use (maybe with some free miles) with a per-mile-used adder. This avoids getting notifications of any sort, as well as avoids forcing a customer to bump up a level each time they are warned. I hate being nagged unnecessarily by my devices. They're not the boss of me!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I don’t have the stats because I’m out of town. But today was a good performance to stop the three game losing streak and some momentum heading into the weekend

 

[UnknownSoldier]

I don’t have the stats because I’m out of town. But today was a good performance to stop the three game losing streak and some momentum heading into the weekend

I mean it's blatantly obvious that the sudden move up today was to make sure that put holders got killed too. They weren't happy with just killing the call holders, they wanted the put holders to die too. Right now the stock is entirely under the control of the manipulators, which is why it's not affected one way or the other by anything fundamental.

I should learn how to properly run spreads. The manipulators want the SP exactly here. Not much higher, not much lower. An iron condor is the only solution.

 

[AudubonB]

In my best Paul Hogan voice ...

That's not a Semi,




This is a Semi

View attachment 658556​

yes, yes, I know you meant semi-O.T., just couldn't pass up the opportunity to invoke Semi-on-topic foolishness.

Yaah yaah yaah.
Y'know, a semi tractor without its trailer - trailer is off, ie, an off-trailer - is a semi-O.T.

 

[steve3]

Tesla investor news in Denver...

Denver Basic Income Project will give homeless people money instead of services.

“Donovan provided the initial seed money for the Denver project, which is being funded through private donations. ‘I was sitting back last year as COVID hit, watching my net worth go up with my Tesla investment that grew by 700 percent while people were going out onto the street and losing their jobs and their income,’ Donovan said.”

What happens when you give money to people who need money?

 

[ke6jph]

I'm in a similar situation and agree with you completely. My 2018 AWD has EAP, which is perfect. I like driving the car too much to use EAP/FSD for anything other than long road trips. So I can't imagine paying $10K for FSD on a new vehicle. And I LOL'ed when I saw the article on the noisemaker. Can't imagine why someone would pay to have this retro-fitted. I would pay $200 to remove it if I had it! But I suppose there are those who want to add it.

And like you, I have one little extra motivation to keep my 2018. Mine was one of those rare 'stealth' performance builds, which I didn't even realize until I tried to purchase the acceleration boost upgrade (definitely felt foolish when I found out after emailing Tesla to see why I didn't have this option).

I can see myself owning my Model 3 for many more years.

Sure is fun playing the “Ice Cream“ music on the pedestrian speaker slowly thru the downtown bar scene on a warm spring afternoon and watching the people looking for the “ Truck”. Even driving down residential streets and watching the kids react is a blast. And you can turn it on and off at will (except for the back up sound)

 

[Discoducky]

Is it just me or is Elon Twitter now better than earnings calls? I feel like he's giving so much with a bit of decoding we know, somewhat, when v9 hits and how good it will be, updates on Model Y 22/23 beating Corolla for #1 spot, updates on Texas crash and many details.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Jeff Bezos never participated in earnings calls all the years he was CEO of Amazon. True story.

I know we like to give Bezos a hard time for copying Elon, but this is something that Elon really ought to copy Bezos on. He doesn't need to be there. He obviously doesn't like being there. There is literally no rule that the CEO or any other officer of a company must attend earnings calls. He should just leave it to the Master of Coin, the reality is interacting with the analysts every quarter is a lowly meaningless task that the Technoking shouldn't stoop down to in the first place.

 

[MC3OZ]

you free FSD access on a vehicle for the rest of eternity.

I just hope that the car ends up at the right after-life destination....

 

[MikeAtkinson]

New Tesla factory plans submitted for Austin

There is a comment from

user "M B"

A site plan was filed today with the City of Austin for a project named "Project Bobcat." The address referenced in the site plan, 13101 Harold Green Dr. is where the Martin Marietta Ready Mix plant is currently located. Whatever they are building is huge, 6,543,147.6 square feet on 150 acres! That's as big as what they are currently building. I tried to include the link but it keeps deleting my post. The permit case number is 2021-064703 SP and the file name is SP-2021-0145D for those curious and want to look it up. Could this be what they are currently clearing just east of MM Ready Mix? Could the Cathode and Lithium Hydroxide production facility be part of this "Bobcat Project?" Things are picking up!

I have not so far been able to find this permit.

 

[Lessmog]

So what do I win? Any real size of these will be fine:

Would you settle for the Boring hat? Not sure if it comes in any other than Natural Size.
I have one extra, unused. (But so do you?)

 

[mickle]

New Tesla factory plans submitted for Austin

There is a comment from

user "M B"



I have not so far been able to find this permit.

BobCat = BatteryCathode?

 

[CorneliusXX]

New Tesla factory plans submitted for Austin

There is a comment from

user "M B"



I have not so far been able to find this permit.

Here's a link to the application

Interactive Development Review Permitting and Inspection | AustinTexas.gov - The Official Website of the City of Austin

 

[ajax]

New Tesla factory plans submitted for Austin

There is a comment from "M B"

"A site plan was filed today with the City of Austin for a project named "Project Bobcat." The address referenced in the site plan, 13101 Harold Green Dr. is where the Martin Marietta Ready Mix plant is currently located. Whatever they are building is huge, 6,543,147.6 square feet on 150 acres! That's as big as what they are currently building. I tried to include the link but it keeps deleting my post. The permit case number is 2021-064703 SP and the file name is SP-2021-0145D for those curious and want to look it up. Could this be what they are currently clearing just east of MM Ready Mix? Could the Cathode and Lithium Hydroxide production facility be part of this "Bobcat Project?" Things are picking up!"

Hmmm, well Gigafactory 1 was originally called "Project Tiger," so maybe the commenter is on to something with the theory that "Project Bobcat" is battery related.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

From

https://twitter.com/x/status/1386878108473692165

Some new information on Model 3 production numbers. Tesla don't differentiate between 3/Y production, so Model 3 production has been guesses up to now.

2017 Q3 222
2017 Q4 1,550
2018 Q1 8,182
2018 Q2 18,449
2018 Q3 56,065
2018 Q4 63,359
2019 Q1 50,928
2019 Q2 77,634
2019 Q3 79,703
2019 Q4 92,620
2020 Q1 74,100
2020 Q2 67,000
2020 Q3 92,000
2020 Q4 123,100
2021 Q1 121,200

And

Backing out Model Y deliveries from P&D numbers:
2020 Q1 2,100
2020 Q2 13,050
2020 Q3 32,100
2020 Q4 38,550
2021 Q1 61,580 (46k Fremont + 15k Shanghai ?)

 

[Lessmog]

Hmmm, well Gigafactory 1 was originally called "Project Tiger," so maybe the commenter is on to something with the theory that "Project Bobcat" is battery related.

Expect Ford to unveil copycat Project Polecat soon? Maybe in Newer Mexico?

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Tesla Employee count

https://twitter.com/x/status/1387888687422312451

2020 - 70,757
2019 - 48,016
2018 - 48,817
2017 - 37,543
2016 - 17,782
2015 - 13,058
2014 - 10,161
2013 - 5,859
2012 - 2,964
2011 - 1,417
2010 - 899

So we can calculate productivity:

Year	Employees	Car Production	Productivity (cars/empoyee)
2020	70,757	509,737	7.2
2019	48,016	365,232	7.6
2018	48,817	254,530	5.2
2017	37,543	100,757	2.7
2016	17,782	83,922	4.7

That is very crude as Tesla Energy and other activities affect employee count. Employee count is end-of-year while production is spread over the year, so ramping production leads to lower productivity estimates.

Per Cars Per Employee And Productivity At Volkswagen Versus Toyota – Michel Baudin's Blog

VW produces 10 million/600,000 = 16.67 cars/employee/year, and Toyota 9 million/340,000 = 26.47 cars/employee/year.

Considering Tesla's vertical integration, no dealerships, servicing and charging infrastructure, and the number of employees in Tesla Energy, Tesla's productivity is really good.

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Better than expected, given the ... interesting history of Tesla vs Clarkson in the early days, esp. the first part of the video, where Tesla's strengths are demoed.
Having 6 lawyers in the car is off course a dirty trick, but ... could be worse. At least the good first part is more believable to fence-sitters 'cause Clarkson is not seen to having 'caved' to Tesla but maintains his life-long skepticism of non-gas cars.

Edit: Video is from 2017 - thanks Lycanthrope!

 

[LiveLong&Profit]

Maybe Telsa needs a Public Relations person.

If the public understands the graph, the media is killing one hundred people a day by demanding no missed edge cases.

In theory, yes.
Tesla could spend a lot of time educating the public. It might work - over time. It might not work as well as hoped, because all people have feelings but logic and reason requires training and education - and also the ability to suppress feelings that may have made evolutionary sense, but are not always useful.

If our consensus estimation re. the Texas accidents are even somewhat correct Tesla will face strong headwind from detractors with agendas.

What is most likely to sway the public?
"Killer robot on wheels strikes again: Young mother and 3 kids killed by Tesla!"
OR
"Self driving cars will save 100 people a day, due to efforts spearheaded Tesla"

When logic and reason meet head to head with strong appeal to emotion then it is an uneven fight.