Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dl003]

I

Promised ...? eh, nah, not quite. But he did everything other than promise. He certainly allowed everyone to believe it, made no effort to refute the assumption, and he participated in countless discussions where there was the implication that Plaid+ used 4680 packs. Plus there is this exchange:

View attachment 670426

As a Plaid+ Battery Day order, I feel intentionally misled. Even the phone call i received last week seems to have been disingenuous, since there was no mention of any plan to cancel the Plaid+ all together, merely that it wouldn't be ready until 2022 (which, to be honest, i fully expected back when i ordered and they were saying "late 2021"). Outright cancellation had to have already been one option that was already on the table at the time, but Tesla has refused to be even the slightest bit transparent about the details of this vehicle's battery or timeline or many other details.

i'm not pissed, because hey, my P100D is still the best car i've ever owned by such a wide margin, i don't mind keeping it longer, but this Plaid+ fiasco is kind of annoying.

And hey, perhaps he is toying with everyone and the big shocker Thursday will be that all Model S Plaid does have the 4680 packs. This is certainly the optimistic take and the one Tesla bulls (including me) would most like to believe, but I know full well that in a vacuum of concrete information, people tend to construct the most optimistic possible narrative, so i'm *always* suspicious of the "sandbag" narrative (which has turned out to be a valid suspicion 99 times out of 100 with Tesla). Furthermore, i don't think the sum of known evidence really points in that direction.

I could still be wrong. I'd love to be wrong. I hope Tesla decides to level with its customers about what's inside this car.

I hope they have made good progress at Kato which gave Plaid a boost and Elon felt Plaid+ was not worth the wait and the osbourning. I hope you will find the Plaid sufficiently amazing on Thursday.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Normally this type of announcement would be kept on by shorts and you'd see a pretty steep SP drop. Since everything is currently moving opposite to reality I'm predicting a pretty big run-up into Thursday.

 

[Mokuzai]

I have a Plaid+ order and got the call asking if I wanted a Plaid sooner. Said I wanted the 4680 version. I was sorta on the fence of the Plaid+ since I really want/plan on getting a roadster. So this pretty much locked in that I'll just wait for a roadster and be happy with my S75 till then.

 

[Pezpunk]

one odd thing... if the Plaid+ wasn’t scheduled to be produced/delivered until 2022, why cancel it now? Plenty of time to get 4680s sorted out. Just odd/confusing.
what does this mean for all other cars that are dependent on 4680?

Right. Plus, it's such a low-volume car, it's hard to believe it would meaningfully eat into 3 and Y production (it'd be a drop in the bucket!), and since it's a higher margin vehicle anyway, how would that even be a bad thing? Confusing all around no doubt.

I honestly don't think Plaid+ was ever going to be on the 4680s

Elon was certainly talking as if Plaid+ = 4680 late last year.

I hope they have made good progress at Kato which gave Plaid a boost and Elon felt Plaid+ was not worth the wait and the osbourning. I hope you will find the Plaid sufficiently amazing on Thursday.

me too.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Is BilWrit… from Reno or Kato?
I think he wouldn’t know much about Kato…

Either way....I don’t think Bill understands what people are getting at. People are associating 4680 with 500 miles of range. If Tesla comes out on Thursday and says they’ve update the Plaid range to like 475 miles.....almost everyone is not going to care if it’s 18650 cells or 4680. People care more about the range than whether it can go 0-60 in less than 2 seconds

 

[The Accountant]

Is BilWrit… from Reno or Kato?
I think he wouldn’t know much about Kato…

He's in Reno

 

[Krugerrand]

@Krugerrand ...courtersy Twitter

View attachment 670405

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/ntrer2

I’ve been under an airtight NDA for months, but since it’s on the Internet now I guess it’s okay to admit that I posed for that picture, that I was told to look like someone had just informed me that I was really a dog not a cat, and finally that I was paid in TSLA.

 

[traxila]

Who is P? Am I a moron for not knowing?

I honestly do not have a clue if SP is going up or down tomorrow off of this. I would think down, based on the recent past and the fact that there will be relentless FUD tomorrow.

But there is still so much we do not know. Will Elon turn this into a loss this week? He must have something else to reveal. Why shoot yourself in the foot right before the event? But is true, Elon doesn’t really care about SP short term, so who knows.

I see Teslas everywhere now. My kids keep trying to get into the wrong car. It does seem demand is crazy right now.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Either way....I don’t think Bill understands what people are getting at. People are associating 4680 with 500 miles of range. If Tesla comes out on Thursday and says they’ve update the Plaid range to like 475 miles.....almost everyone is not going to care if it’s 18650 cells or 4680. People care more about the range than whether it can go 0-60 in less than 2 seconds

That would be great and would explain why everyone that claims to know more about this car than is publicly known is acting like there is another shoe to drop.

 

[Singuy]

Who is P? Am I a moron for not knowing?

I honestly do not have a clue if SP is going up or down tomorrow off of this. I would think down, based on the recent past and the fact that there will be relentless FUD tomorrow.

But there is still so much we do not know. Will Elon turn this into a loss this week? He must have something else to reveal. Why shoot yourself in the foot right before the event? But is true, Elon doesn’t really care about SP short term, so who knows.

I see Teslas everywhere now. My kids keep trying to get into the wrong car. It does seem demand is crazy right now.

That's Bill

 

[InTheShadows]

Maybe they knew it would be canceled, maybe not. At some point the decision is made. I get that it sucks, as a customer, but you don't know at all that you were intentionally misled.

Buy a roadster.

Thinking a little bit more

I honestly don't think Plaid+ was ever going to be on the 4680s
If it was, then Tesla made one of the smartest decision to cancel it. Yeah I went from hating the news on a technologically achievement standpoint to now a practical standpoint.

It would have been INSANE for Tesla to retool for a Plaid S+ that results in less than 1% of total volume shipment from Tesla. Refresh S retooling took way longer than expected and that's not on a new cell architecture. It'll be crazy to have different cells going into the Plaid S+ vs everything else.

So taking a step back, nothing has really changed. Tesla is focused on getting 4680s into volume production sometime next year with the Y, cybertruck and Semi. . Diverting 4680s specifically to the Plaid S+ is a waste of time and resources, so they were probably not going to do that anyways if Plaid S+ wasn't cancelled. They were just going to add more 18650 cells to get that range.

I’m thinking the opposite. I think the plaid has the 4680 cells as will the LR S also. I think their volume is enough on the 4680 that they can build the plaid now and get the 4680’s out into the real world to test them more throughly. Then next year once Berlin and Texas are up they will have enough to put them in the LR S, which I think will be a fairly low volume of sales.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Not suprised the Plaid plus is cancelled. When the order button was greyed out that should have been a signal. Also, why have a Roadster thats twice as expensive with a four door Model S with the same or close specs? This move does give the Roadster some breathing room spec wise.

I bet putting 4680 batteries into the S/X required too much engineering and recertifying with the government as a new car (big money and lots of crash tests). Not worth the ROI.

 

[StealthP3D]

They were free to clarify their plans at any point over the last nine months. Last week's phone call to me would have been a perfect opportunity. But no, just mind games and coercion to try to get me to voluntarily unorder a product they were getting ready to cancel.

just ONCE in your life i'd like to see you acknowledge when Tesla or Elon makes a mistake. Would that actually kill you?

It's a near certainty that the person giving you the opportunity to change your order didn't know Elon would tweet that the Plaid plus was cancelled. We don't even know if it's cancelled forever or or only the originally announced production schedule is cancelled. You are free to receive a refund of your, what, hundred dollars? any time.

As far as me acknowledging when Tesla or Elon makes a mistake, the problem with that is by the time it's clear to me it was actually a mistake (for sure, not only a perceived mistake) it's too late to be relevant. Investing is a forward-looking endeavor and any mistakes made by Tesla management have not risen to anywhere near the level to change my investment actions. I've said many times that Tesla management makes mistakes (all management teams do, all CEO's do). This should not be news to anyone. To pretend I don't admit that is silly in the extreme.

What's really going on here is I don't pretend to be more astute than Elon himself. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt unless I actually know everything he knows, everything he based his decision on and what he was trying to accomplish. In hindsight there are a bunch of things I consider mistakes, fortunately, none of them serious enough to prevent my investment from appreciating over 20 fold!

Some things people think were mistakes that I don't. For example, "Fart Mode" that some people roundly criticized as a stupid and childish move. I really don't think Elon approved Fart Mode because he thought it was cool, I think it happened at a time when Tesla detractors were trying to paint Tesla's as a car for snobbish, rich people. Elon thought the media attention surrounding Fart Mode would make the cars seem less snobbish and more accessible to the masses. I think it succeeded in making the brand seem less snobbish. But people who can't see half as far as Elon still think it was a childish and stupid mistake that damaged the brand. I disagree. So shoot me.

I can tell you this on no uncertain terms: Given what I know about how you would prefer to see Elon run Tesla, if you were the CEO of a public company I would run, not walk, away. Not a chance I would invest my hard won investment capital when I have places like Tesla to put it. Effective management is my number one investment criteria and Elon Musk has consistently exceeded my requirements to remain invested. I am not going to second guess him until after the fact. And then it's not actually second guessing him. Am I right?

 

[Singuy]

I’m thinking the opposite. I think the plaid has the 4680 cells as will the LR S also. I think their volume is enough on the 4680 that they can build the plaid now and get the 4680’s out into the real world to test them more throughly. Then next year once Berlin and Texas are up they will have enough to put them in the LR S, which I think will be a fairly low volume of sales.

1. Bill confirmed again that it's not the 4680s
2. Reading the transcript from just 50 days ago pretty much confirms we wouldn't see 4680s in volume production in awhile...definitely not in cars that were suppose to be release 3 months ago.

 

[Pezpunk]

It's a near certainty that the person giving you the opportunity to change your order didn't know Elon would tweet that the Plaid plus was cancelled. We don't even know if it's cancelled forever or or only the originally announced production schedule is cancelled. You are free to receive a refund of your, what, hundred dollars? any time.

As far as me acknowledging when Tesla or Elon makes a mistake, the problem with that is by the time it's clear to me it was actually a mistake (for sure, not only a perceived mistake) it's too late to be relevant. Investing is a forward-looking endeavor and any mistakes made by Tesla management have not risen to anywhere near the level to change my investment actions. I've said many times that Tesla management makes mistakes (all management teams do, all CEO's do). This should not be news to anyone. To pretend I don't admit that is silly in the extreme.

What's really going on here is I don't pretend to be more astute than Elon himself. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt unless I actually know everything he knows, everything he based his decision on and what he was trying to accomplish. In hindsight there are a bunch of things I consider mistakes, fortunately, none of them serious enough to prevent my investment from appreciating over 20 fold!

Some things people think were mistakes that I don't. For example, "Fart Mode" that some people roundly criticized as a stupid and childish move. I really don't think Elon approved Fart Mode because he thought it was cool, I think it happened at a time when Tesla detractors were trying to paint Tesla's as a car for snobbish, rich people. Elon thought the media attention surrounding Fart Mode would make the cars seem less snobbish and more accessible to the masses. I think it succeeded in making the brand seem less snobbish. But people who can't see half as far as Elon still think it was a childish and stupid mistake that damaged the brand. I disagree. So shoot me.

I can tell you this on no uncertain terms: Given what I know about how you would prefer to see Elon run Tesla, if you were the CEO of a public company I would run, not walk, away. Not a chance I would invest my hard won investment capital when I have places like Tesla to put it. Effective management is my number one investment criteria and Elon Musk has consistently exceeded my requirements to remain invested. I am not going to second guess him until after the fact. And then it's not actually second guessing him. Am I right?

you could have just typed "yes it would actually kill me to criticize anything Elon does ever" and saved yourself a bunch of keystrokes. i find it an incredibly dangerous approach to investing, but you do you.

I like Tesla a lot and think Elon's a great leader. I don't think either are infallible, though.

 

[gabeincal]

Enjoy the ride on the new track!

 

[Blue horseshoe]

With a lot of concern over cell type I would point towards Bills latest tweets indicating 2170 advances have been applied to 18650 cell structure.

This is consistent with how Elon operates. I've mentioned it before and it is worth repeating: someone I know used to work at Spacex and substantial portions of the rocket were changed on an almost weekly basis while the version of rocket never changed. Spacex and tesla are constantly iterating behind the scenes. 18650 and 2170 may be older form factors, but you would be remiss to think a currently made 18650 or 2170 battery is the same tech or chemical makeup as older production versions.

 

[InTheShadows]

1. Bill confirmed again that it's not the 4680s
2. Reading the transcript from just 50 days ago pretty much confirms we wouldn't see 4680s in volume production in awhile...definitely not in cars that were suppose to be release 3 months ago.

Who is this Bill that has violated his NDA to publicly confirm something like this before the event? I’m basing my opinion on Elon’s tweets.

 

[Dutchie]

Is it Thursday yet?……pffff

 

[StealthP3D]

Thinking a little bit more

I honestly don't think Plaid+ was ever going to be on the 4680s
If it was, then Tesla made one of the smartest decision to cancel it. Yeah I went from hating the news on a technologically achievement standpoint to now a practical standpoint.

It would have been INSANE for Tesla to retool for a Plaid S+ that results in less than 1% of total volume shipment from Tesla. Refresh S retooling took way longer than expected and that's not on a new cell architecture. It'll be crazy to have different cells going into the Plaid S+ vs everything else.

So taking a step back, nothing has really changed. Tesla is focused on getting 4680s into volume production sometime next year with the Y, cybertruck and Semi. . Diverting 4680s specifically to the Plaid S+ is a waste of time and resources, so they were probably not going to do that anyways if Plaid S+ wasn't cancelled. They were just going to add more 18650 cells to get that range.

I'm glad you came around!

I think people are treating the 4680 cells as if they are the holy grail or something when, in fact, the biggest impact they will have is in lowering production cost. Which is pretty damn important as an investor but it doesn't make the car anything but slightly better and a lot cheaper. And, in order to lower production cost they need to introduce those cells into new models as the 4680 volumes ramp up in conjunction with new models, not haphazardly creating supply chain issues.

I think Elon might have been a little over-eager to think they could have two Plaid Model s versions with different batteries. You use the cells you have in the cars designed for them and try to ramp new models in conjunction with the latest batteries. The current cars and batteries- are already blazingly good, they just need to get a bit cheaper. And in 5 or 7 years there will be another major battery development, maybe one that can use the 4680 format, maybe not. And technology will march on and the cost will continue to decline. Whether the car can go from 0-60 in 1.99 seconds or 1.79 seconds is, well, only good for bragging rights, it doesn't change the real nature of the product.