Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

For the shareholders meeting, I am inviting all TMC members to come visit the Bay Area and I'll reserve for dinner in a large outdoor setting.

@Pezpunk and @StealthP3D will be footing the bill and buying 4680 bottles of beer. Hope that's enough.

And I will be hosting a separate dinner for TMC misanthropes. @Krugerrand is invited to foot the bill, but I imagine will not show. In fact most of those on the guest list will probably pass.

 

[thx1139]

I think there will be a 500+mi Model S, and it will likely be by the end of 22, early 23 at the latest. If Tesla is cell constrained for 4680s for a while (pushing + back to late 22 anyway), and people are waiting on Plaid+ to upgrade their S... makes total sense to can it for now. Osborne and all. I'm sure a 500+ model will reappear within 24 months.

I think you are correct and likely will be the Model S Long Range

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

Troy's entire theory banks on Tesla Shanghai not exporting MIC Y at all. He seems to think that just because Tesla has said that the Y will not come to Europe until Berlin is operational, that Tesla will not export ANY MIC Y to other regions. Again he's making assumptions. Tesla WILL start exporting MIC Y to other regions....they could have possibly already started doing it. Point is we won't know that....and Troy certainly won't know when they do start to do that.

We'll have to wait to find out if this is the month that Troy's wrong but rest assured, in one of the coming months Troy will be severely wrong on his China numbers because of this simple fact. I doubt Tesla will openly state when they start actually exporting MIC Y.

It seems like they already are. Maybe not 8k but according to this article 3.461 model Y to South Korea in May.

Tesla Model Y Leads Import Sales in South Korea, Beats Mercedes-Benz E-Class - TeslaNorth.com

Edit: I'm actually not sure if these come from Shanghai or Fremont.

 

[uujjj2]

Would also take that a step further to say that a fledgling company is dependent upon those expensive vehicles to fund development and volume production of cheaper vehicles, just as S/X did for Tesla. This is practically essential to the EV circle of life. If Lucid cannot sell those cars (say, because Tesla has a comparable or better option), Lucid dies.

Since Tesla has proven the path, new EV companies may get slightly more latitude with shareholders, but at the same time I think those shareholders are likely to be more impatient.

Lucid has two ways to get money for the 2nd gen: sell cars, or sell stock. Whether a 400 or 500 mile range sells more cars, there's no question a 500 mile range is going to sell more stock!

 

[Drumheller]

Does anyone know the time of Thursday's event and has a streaming link been shared by Tesla? Thanks, in advance.

I'm also one of those that would like more range. My 2021 Model Y has an EPA rating of 326 miles. In April I drove across Texas and had the cruise set between 75 and 82 depending on location. I managed about 200 to 220 miles of range in that situation. Would like to see real world range of at least 300 miles.

 

[Dave EV]

4680 is better due to cost and weight reductions, but with all tech applied to the 2170 being equal to the 4680 (chemistry, and tabless) the 2170 would be the higher performing cell in a performance car.

Exactly, and I don't think enough people fully understand this. All else being equal, smaller cells will have higher performance (peak charge/discharge rates) at the expense of slightly higher cost and slightly higher weight. But this leads us to the next comment:

It seems that quite a few of us are conflating the 4680 battery with the structural pack. I think that might be a mistake. The Plaid S could still have the structural pack along with the older form-factor cells.

Agreed - Tesla could be rolling out the structural pack with the Model S/X, but with the 18650 sized cells. The remaining question would be: Did Tesla also integrate other changes into the pack to get it to tolerate extended rates of high discharge to avoid overheating and reduce internal resistance? Are the cells tabless? (I doubt this last one, personally).

I suspect that the design of the Model S/X Plaid battery packs and motors (and perhaps all Model S/X packs to simplify production) have significant design changes to reduce weight, reduce internal resistance and improve cooling.

Pre-Raven Model S/X were notorious for overheating quickly on the track. Ravens are slightly better, but not much. I expect the new Model S/X Plaid to have two rear switched reluctance motors similar to the Model 3/Y and an induction front motor to go with a redesigned battery pack, but still using 18650 cells.

 

[abasile]

Although we drive only EVs, and we haven't used a gasoline pump in years, we know other Tesla fans who leave their Teslas in the garage and drive ICE vehicles on some long trips, even here in California. More range is definitely a desire, and there's no point in trying to argue that X miles/kilometers of range is "enough". Many enjoy taking trips in areas where the Supercharger coverage is scant. Others prefer to stop where they want to stop, independent of whether or not there are chargers. Still others, particularly Model X drivers, may want to tow trailers and carry bikes. And, of course, weather and cold can be concerns.

While I initially felt some disappointment about the cancellation of the Plaid+, I feel it's of greater importance that Tesla continues to incrementally increase driving range across the entire vehicle lineup, especially on the 3 and Y. Provided this continues, the S-3-X-Y vehicles will be at 500+ miles in not too many years, anyway. Hopefully, at least for the next 5-10 years, Tesla management will eschew drawing a line in the sand that X miles/kilometers is "enough".

Tesla has a large Supercharger network. Considering the need for meal and restroom stops, 500-mile range seems to be superfluous for most Tesla drivers. However, competitors without a comparable charging network might feel that such range is necessary to entice buyers. Meanwhile, consumers may be becoming to the realization that overnight home charging is for the most part sufficient.

you only need above 400 miles if you don't have a reliable, fast , high coverage supercharger network

I don't see what all the fuss over Plaid + is ... a few years ago the thinking was that model S would be cancelled overall ... certainly don't need multiple designs at this segment especially if different production process .... also Plaid + does not even make sense ... it is just Plaid

OT: driving NYS thruway this weekend got bored counting Tesla's.. they are everywhere

View attachment 670508

 

[MP3Mike]

Does anyone know the time of Thursdays event and had a streaming link been shared by Tesla? Thanks, in advance.

7PM Pacific time, and no.

 

[Dave EV]

Why?

All else being equal, a smaller cell will have lower internal resistance and better thermal conductivity. So a pack made of 2170 or 18650 cells will perform better than a 4680, but weigh and cost slightly more for the same overall capacity. Neither of those two things are much of an concern with a low volume, high cost car like the Model S/X, but for future Model 3/Y other future low cost EVs, this will be very important.

 

[MXWing]

the bait and switch is "baiting" me to order by hyping a 520-mile range car with revolutionary battery tech, then trying to "switch" my order to a lower-range vehicle without the new battery tech that was advertised. When the switch failed, they were forced to outright cancel the product i originally ordered.

LOL @ "When the switch failed". Seems the entire Plaid strategy failed because of YOU. Going to beg to differ on that.

It didn't make sense for Tesla to offer Plaid+ at this time or the near future. End of story.

Plaid S is compelling for the majority of people. You said yourself your SP100D might last you for a few years somehow the Plaid S isn't going to work for anyone else then?

Stop being ME ME ME and look at the bigger picture.

It's ridiculous to focus entirely on cell form factors and miss what ACTUALLY matters. Value to the consumer.

 

[scaesare]

All else being equal, a smaller cell will have lower internal resistance and better thermal conductivity. So a pack made of 2170 or 18650 cells will perform better than a 4680, but weigh and cost slightly more for the same overall capacity. Neither of those two things are much of an concern with a low volume, high cost car like the Model S/X, but for future Model 3/Y other future low cost EVs, this will be very important.

I'm not so sure that's the case with tabless cells.

For tabbed cells, the larger the diameter the physical format, the longer the linear length of the current collecting anode & cathode, and hence a longer (i.e. greater resistance) pathway for current to flow to get to the tab and the endcap.

For tabless cells, this is no longer the case. The entire edge of the current collector is in contact with the cap, eliminating the single tab. Current now has a direct pathway from that edge to the cap regardless of the length of the collector, and hence the diameter of the cell.

Similar for thermal conductivity. That foil is in contact with the metal cap and allows a direct highly conductive pathway for cooling... no longer does heat have to traverse multiple "jelly-roll" layers to the side-casing of the cell. Thus diameter is not a limiter for cooling as it was in the tabbed designs.

 

[elasalle]

From my brokerage's newsfeed:

Video Shows Tesla's Gigafactory Texas Model Y Machinery Is Already Operational​

11:17 am ET June 7, 2021 (Benzinga) Print
Tesla Inc's (NASDAQ: TSLA) Gigafactory Texas is the company's latest vehicle production factory. It is supposed to begin production later this year of Tesla's Model Y, followed by the Cybertruck and Tesla Semi.

And now it appears Tesla's factory is already hard at work.

Teslarati shared a video from Twitter showing multiple pieces of machinery inside Gigafactory whirring away. The equipment is most likely in an initial testing phase as Tesla gets ready to start production.

Although the factory is also still under construction, Tesla could begin vehicle production while other areas of the factory are built.


In May, hundreds of Model Y front castings were seen piled outside of Gigafactory Texas. This latest video adds to the evidence Tesla is aggressively pushing its schedule to begin Model Y production at Gigafactory Texas as soon as possible. It needs to do so if it wants to meet demand, as all of quarter two inventory was sold out early.

But, But ... it's raining cat&dogs in Austin

 

[The Accountant]

It's been stated, even by people that track the ships, the there's much more uncertainty about the number of ships out of Shanghai than Fremont. They acknowledge there could be ships that they're missing.

The inability to track all ships leaving Shanghai with Tesla cars on them can't be overemphasized.
In April, the "ship trackers" only had 3 ships leaving Shanghai for Europe with total loading time of 3.6 days. I usually estimate 1,200 vehicles per day of loading but let's say China is more efficient and that they load 1,500 cars per day. That would be about 5,400 vehicles for export (3.6 x 1500) yet the CPCA reported 14,174 exports.

 

[MXWing]

The inability to track all ships leaving Shanghai with Tesla's on them can't be overemphasized.
In April, the "ship trackers" only had 3 ships leaving Shanghai for Europe with total loading time of 3.6 days. I usually estimate 1,200 vehicles per day of loading but let's say China is more efficient and that they load 1,500 cars per day. That would be about 5,400 vehicles for export (3.6 x 1500) yet the CPCA reported 14,174 exports.

Correct me if I am wrong but hasn't China ALWAYS overdelivered no matter what it was?

-Construction time of factory.
-Time to ramp production.
-Production vs estimates.
-Time to return to production during a global pandemic.
-Time to introduce and produce Model Y line.

I would bet more on you underestimating them than overestimating them.

They are the culture of 'git r done'.

Yup....and this disconnect between how things are being tracked by certain people and what's actually happening is only going to grow because while there might be plenty of demand locally in China for all production to go to local China, the combination of it being much more profitable for Tesla to fulfill overseas demand from Shanghai and demand in the US being off the charts right now......means that I'm confident as Shanghai increases production levels, exports will skew more and more towards MIC exports (percentage wise of total exports) while Fremont caps it's exports level to it current rate (maybe even reduce it some) while any extra production levels go towards local US demand

Something is WRONG if China has high sales in April and high sales through middle May.

How many people in the 510 Area Code get deliveries first day of the quarter? Practically none. They can be close enough to throw a rock at Fremont but Tesla probably gives them a car June 30th at 11:59PM.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

The inability to track all ships leaving Shanghai with Tesla's on them can't be overemphasized.
In April, the "ship trackers" only had 3 ships leaving Shanghai for Europe with total loading time of 3.6 days. I usually estimate 1,200 vehicles per day of loading but let's say China is more efficient and that they load 1,500 cars per day. That would be about 5,400 vehicles for export (3.6 x 1500) yet the CPCA reported 14,174 exports.

Yup....and this disconnect between how things are being tracked by certain people and what's actually happening is only going to grow because while there might be plenty of demand locally in China for all production to go to local China, the combination of it being much more profitable for Tesla to fulfill overseas demand from Shanghai and demand in the US being off the charts right now......means that I'm confident as Shanghai increases production levels, exports will skew more and more towards MIC exports (percentage wise of total exports) while Fremont caps it's exports level to it current rate (maybe even reduce it some) while any extra production levels go towards local US demand

 

[kengchang]

It seems like they already are. Maybe not 8k but according to this article 3.461 model Y to South Korea in May.

Tesla Model Y Leads Import Sales in South Korea, Beats Mercedes-Benz E-Class - TeslaNorth.com

Edit: I'm actually not sure if these come from Shanghai or Fremont.

That came from Fremont, Twitter saw Y being trucked to Pier 80 and the RoRo got sent to South Korea

 

[pnungesser]

Does anyone know the time of Thursday's event and has a streaming link been shared by Tesla? Thanks, in advance.

I'm also one of those that would like more range. My 2021 Model Y has an EPA rating of 326 miles. In April I drove across Texas and had the cruise set between 75 and 82 depending on location. I managed about 200 to 220 miles of range in that situation. Would like to see real world range of at least 300 miles.

My 2016 MS 90D gives an EPA range of about 265 miles at 100%, down from 285 when new, 5+ years ago. I can comfortably go 220 miles at 80 MPH from a full charge and still arrive with 10% charge left. Always get a little less than displayed range, but not significantly. I don't understand why others are getting so much less range than indicated. In warm weather I use about 300 wH/mile and in cool weather about 320 wH/mile. I know this is OT but what am I doing right?

 

[Drumheller]

My 2016 MS 90D gives an EPA range of about 265 miles at 100%, down from 285 when new, 5+ years ago. I can comfortably go 220 miles at 80 MPH from a full charge and still arrive with 10% charge left. Always get a little less than displayed range, but not significantly. I don't understand why others are getting so much less range than indicated. In warm weather I use about 300 wH/mile and in cool weather about 320 wH/mile. I know this is OT but what am I doing right?

I achieved closer to EPA rating in my 2013 Model S than I do in my Model Y. I'm guessing aerodynamics. Also, the Y is rated 240 wH / mi. I can get that doing 45mph in the city. Highway usage brings me above 300.

Let's stop here in this thread before we summon moderators. Feel free to message me directly if you want to discuss it more.

 

[Tslynk67]

So there was a couple big green candles, news?

Edit - might be this: Tesla Could Start Selling Cars In India In 2021

??

 

[The Accountant]

It seems like they already are. Maybe not 8k but according to this article 3.461 model Y to South Korea in May.

Tesla Model Y Leads Import Sales in South Korea, Beats Mercedes-Benz E-Class - TeslaNorth.com

Edit: I'm actually not sure if these come from Shanghai or Fremont.

People seem so certain that Shanghai did not deliver Model Ys to SKorea. I have no idea why the certainty since no one has total visibility.
Here is one person claiming that no ship went from Shanghai to Pyeongtaek SK but I in fact tracked the TOKYO CAR ship from Shanghai to Pyeongtaek on May 24-28..

TOKYO CAR - Ports visited: