Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

Question for you all…do we foresee us back at 705$ today? I’m putting in my buy orders

Macros looking good with Fed not tapering......dunno if we'll see $705 level again today....but what do i know

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Question for you all…do we foresee us back at 705$ today? I’m putting in my buy orders

If volume dwindles to nothing, which it probably will, you'll find us likely pegged to max pain of $700.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If volume dwindles to nothing, which it probably will, you'll find us likely pegged to max pain of $700.

Nah, ignoring the calculated max pain number and actually looking at the graph, it'll be a close of 709

 

[Unpilot]

If volume dwindles to nothing, which it probably will, you'll find us likely pegged to max pain of $700.

Nah, ignoring the calculated max pain number and actually looking at the graph, it'll be a close of 709

There ya go folks...make your bets.

 

[GOVA]

Question for you all…do we foresee us back at 705$ today? I’m putting in my buy orders

I foresee 6 9 8

 

[EVMeister]

Nah, ignoring the calculated max pain number and actually looking at the graph, it'll be a close of 709

$708.78 I reckon.

 

[SOULPEDL]

MM's can't control SP of a stock like AMC whose price is usually based purely on if there's a tiny amount of float available, or a teeny tiny amount, or less than zero sometimes.

With super low volume and shares available to trade, MM's can afford to naked short TSLA to make sure they optimize their weekly gains on options contracts. They'll lose a bit unwinding next week, but it's net profitable.

Plus, they likely use their tricks to free up some real shares which helps improve (or maintain) their manipulation leverage.

In retail, some sell chairs to buy options and risk losing the farm, some sell to day trade but then don't get back in as it keeps rising. And some believe those stupid stories out there and are on the sidelines now. The rest of us just HODL.

I'm sure TD is enjoying the use of my shares out there somewhere, but it must erk the banks to read this stuff on TMC, knowing we know what we know... ya know? I mean, we have Dodger, Papafox, Curt and many others call it out daily as if we had a copy of the Almanac from Back to the Future.

 

[Paul_SF]

Question for you all…do we foresee us back at 705$ today? I’m putting in my buy orders

A few $ makes a difference when your strategy is HODL?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

A few $ makes a difference when your strategy is HODL?

Lunch is expensive these days due to inflation

 

[StealthP3D]

Now have some dinner bets with a former colleague who used to be a bull, but is now short the stock:

1. That M-Y will outsell the Corolla over a trailing 12 month period before the end of 2023;
2. That Cybertruck will be best selling truck over a trailing 12 month period before the end of 2025;
3. That Tesla will produce more than 20M vehicles in 2030;

Stakes are dinners in our respective cities (on opposite coasts). I also offered to sell him some puts. This is going to be a wild decade.

You have access to the hen that lays golden eggs! Do you know how rare it is to find a TSLAQ that still has money and is willing to risk it betting against Tesla?

This rare creature only comes about when someone has been highly bullish on Tesla then suddenly flips.

P.S. That said, I'm not that bullish on your three bets on the whole (assuming these are even odds bets), especially #2 and #3. One problem with bet #3 is you assume the risk that 2030 is a down year for vehicle sales. Tesla could sell over 20M vehicles in 2029 and you could still lose the bet. I'm wondering if he isn't playing you for profit by making outrageously bearish comments on Tesla to get your confidence high enough that he can get you to agree to bets that are not worded all that favorably. If he's really bearish on Tesla (to the point of shorting them) you should have been able to get him to agree to much more favorable bets. Hopefully these are just fun, pocket change, bets.

 

[Sofie]

A few $ makes a difference when your strategy is HODL?

Good point! Lol! I still shop for bargains but yes I just bought at 710$!

 

[dl003]

Good point! Lol! I still shop for bargains but yes I just bought at 710$!

Textbook case of FOMO.

 

[Sofie]

Textbook case of FOMO.

Guilty!

 

[StealthP3D]

Rivian $80b IPO.....seems little bit expensive
Rivian Files for IPO, Seeking About $80 Billion Valuation

If we generously assume that Rivian has amassed 40,000 pre-orders, that values each pre-order at $2 million. Of course that's not a valid method to value an IPO. Tesla was valued at $1.7 billion at the IPO. So Rivian is being valued as 47 IPO Tesla's? And they don't even have the first-mover advantage?

Now Tesla is the dominate EV manufacturer with a huge lead in EV technology, software, AI, energy storage and energy production and TSLA market cap is just over 700 Billion. So Rivian thinks nine Rivians at $80 Billion each is worth more than the real deal?

 

[Question]

If we generously assume that Rivian has amassed 40,000 pre-orders, that values each pre-order at $2 million. Of course that's not a valid method to value an IPO. Tesla was valued at $1.7 billion at the IPO. So Rivian is being valued as 47 IPO Tesla's? And they don't even have the first-mover advantage?

Now Tesla is the dominate EV manufacturer with a huge lead in EV technology, software, AI, energy storage and energy production and TSLA market cap is just over 700 Billion. So Rivian thinks nine Rivians at $80 Billion each is worth more than the real deal?

I agree that Rivian seems expensive but I wouldn't use those TeslaQ "2 million per car" valuation models for Rivian either. Electric vehicle market is also totally different now than 2010. It was a huge risk to create EV company back then.

 

[dl003]

If we generously assume that Rivian has amassed 40,000 pre-orders, that values each pre-order at $2 million. Of course that's not a valid method to value an IPO. Tesla was valued at $1.7 billion at the IPO. So Rivian is being valued as 47 IPO Tesla's? And they don't even have the first-mover advantage?

Now Tesla is the dominate EV manufacturer with a huge lead in EV technology, software, AI, energy storage and energy production and TSLA market cap is just over 700 Billion. So Rivian thinks nine Rivians at $80 Billion each is worth more than the real deal?

Sad thing is, many imbeciles on Wall Street will jump on the bandwagon to make a quick buck. However, I suspect Rivian is going to be in for a bumpy ride. With tapering talks and rate hikes coming in a year or so, IPOs are not going to enjoy the same lofty level of valuation.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sad thing is, many imbeciles on Wall Street will jump on the bandwagon to make a quick buck. However, I suspect Rivian is going to be in for a bumpy ride. With tapering talks and rate hikes coming in a year or so, IPOs are not going to enjoy the same lofty level of valuation.

Also the fact that they’re already planning on putting money into a 2nd factory is a huge red flag to me.

For a company with no sales yet and no experience mass producing EV’s, could easily be a fatal decision if a cash crunch happens

It also tells me they put a lot of emphasis on hype and maintaining which is another red flag

 

[henchman24]

If we generously assume that Rivian has amassed 40,000 pre-orders, that values each pre-order at $2 million. Of course that's not a valid method to value an IPO. Tesla was valued at $1.7 billion at the IPO. So Rivian is being valued as 47 IPO Tesla's? And they don't even have the first-mover advantage?

Now Tesla is the dominate EV manufacturer with a huge lead in EV technology, software, AI, energy storage and energy production and TSLA market cap is just over 700 Billion. So Rivian thinks nine Rivians at $80 Billion each is worth more than the real deal?

It is an apples and oranges market compared to when Tesla IPO'd. Back then, 99% of people thought an EV only company would fail as it wasn't scalable. Add to that, that no automaker startup had succeeded for 80 years. Today, we know not only are EVs able to be manufactured, they can be profitable and scalable. Plus there is a roadmap to having an EV startup succeed. Still incredibly difficult, but it isn't impossible.

I see the case for Rivian going forward, and $80b isn't completely unreasonable to me. Lucid is currently around $36b... and I would say that Rivian has a much better chance at carving out a market. It is aspirational and involves a lot of projection. But if they could hit 50k combined trucks and suvs with 5k vans, they'll have a shot. Personally, I also feel the Tesla market cap right now just isn't high enough. Even just looking at the EV business and margins looking forward, Tesla should probably be in the 1.0-1.2t market cap. Once other parts can reasonably be projected by analysts, they'll add more to that number (especially if FSD works).

 

[Mengy]

Sad thing is, many imbeciles on Wall Street will jump on the bandwagon to make a quick buck. However, I suspect Rivian is going to be in for a bumpy ride. With tapering talks and rate hikes coming in a year or so, IPOs are not going to enjoy the same lofty level of valuation.

Agreed. Even though I think Rivian has a good chance of making it long term, no way I'd buy them at their IPO. I'd rather just buy more TSLA if I was going to buy any more stocks.

Maybe in a year or two if I see Rivian's financials improving over time I'd think of buying some shares. Maybe. But with Tesla doing as well as they are I think I'd sooner buy more TSLA while it's still in it's "early" days.

 

[PeterJA]

If we generously assume that Rivian has amassed 40,000 pre-orders, that values each pre-order at $2 million. Of course that's not a valid method to value an IPO. Tesla was valued at $1.7 billion at the IPO. So Rivian is being valued as 47 IPO Tesla's? And they don't even have the first-mover advantage?

Now Tesla is the dominate EV manufacturer with a huge lead in EV technology, software, AI, energy storage and energy production and TSLA market cap is just over 700 Billion. So Rivian thinks nine Rivians at $80 Billion each is worth more than the real deal?

Ignorant investors are looking for "the next Tesla," not realizing that Tesla has just started growing. They don't understand that FSD and other AI will change everything.

Tesla is a firmly rooted seedling that now can't be stopped. Rivian is a seed with high risk of never sprouting. The next Tesla is Tesla.