When I look in your aging mirror, I see someone who does OK with concentration and risk taking. Just an observation.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Ugh, I can not believe we are still having this discussion: Model S/X is NOT getting a 4680 bty pack in the forseeable future (meaning at least several years). Elon has said so, multiple times: Tesla will NOT turn off a 10 GWh/yr supply of battery cells (those 18650s imported from Japan) while they are still cell constrained.
How do you not get this?
Maybe in several years, after both Austin and Berlin are fully ramped with local 4680 production, and the new Roadster is fully supplied with its 200 KWh packs, and Tesla Semi production is not limited by the availability of 4680 cells for its 600-to-1,000 KWh packs, then MAYBE Tesla will update the Palladium S/X to use 4680 structural packs.
But there is a limit on the number of new IDRA Gigapresses can make each year (likely required to produce structural packs), so DO NOT hold your breath. Those presses will go first to Models 2/Z factories, then Robotaxi...
I estimate its perhaps 7 years until Tesla switches Models S/X to 4680s.
Deal with it!
Cheers!
Right start, wrong finish.
You say they won't give up on using those 18650s and you are right.
You then go on about how many other products need 4680s, which is the wrong line of though.
What you should consider is what product can they toss those 18650s in if not the Model S/X? I'd say that is the Model 2 (or Model Q or whatever they want to call the car smaller than the Model 3). Once they are cranking out smaller cars, that is the obvious place to put the 18650s.
Smaller pack, smaller car, less downside in terms of range to using the smaller cells. Perfect place to toss them.
Surely that smaller car will be happening in less than 7 years.
I'm going to say 4680s in Models S/X by 2025. 3 years ahead of your 7 year number. But Elon will reiterate that it isn't happening at least once a year in 2021 and 2022 and 2023 just to fight the Osbourne effect.
Just like he said there wouldn't be a Model S cosmetic refresh for all those years before they finally did it.
There really wasn’t a cosmetic refresh was there?
Would consider the Pallidium to be pretty much a whole new car save the body panels.
Just my opinion. Subject to change when I finally get my Plaid (ordered battery day when it was the +).
mltv
Member
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
I just find this unbelievable. So instead of a BEV Prius which should exist by now, we get a hydrogen powered Prius that has a combustion engine to burn hydrogen. I am not one for betting against a company, but Toyota really looks like an easy play with the highest automotive market cap outside of Tesla. A least most of the others auto companies seem to understand they have a big issue. Toyota thinks they are going to muscle through this disruption on their terms.
www.motor1.com
Toyota Prius With Hydrogen-Fueled Combustion Engine Coming In 2025
A rumor from Japan strengthens previous reports of an upcoming Toyota Prius with a hydrogen-powered combustion engine.
www.motor1.com
I think they are just the canary in the mineshaft for East Asia.
Toyota is or was one of the biggest backers of the smear campaign against EVs. I had heard that confidentially a couple of years ago but recently Sandy has come out saying the same thing so I guess it's ok. EVs threaten the entire structure of Japan Inc automotive sector. Remember when Japan had the best cell phones .... that's what it is going to look likeI just find this unbelievable. So instead of a BEV Prius which should exist by now, we get a hydrogen powered Prius that has a combustion engine to burn hydrogen. I am not one for betting against a company, but Toyota really looks like an easy play with the highest automotive market cap outside of Tesla. A least most of the others auto companies seem to understand they have a big issue. Toyota thinks they are going to muscle through this disruption on their terms.
Toyota Prius With Hydrogen-Fueled Combustion Engine Coming In 2025
A rumor from Japan strengthens previous reports of an upcoming Toyota Prius with a hydrogen-powered combustion engine.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Frankly I think that the leader of a process like this needs to have high functioning autism such as Asperger's. The leader needs obsessive interest in the mission, be logical to the point of being "weird", not care much about social convention for its own sake, not care much about social status hierarchies, and have a strong drive for justice. I doubt a neurotypical person could do this.
Not being any kind of expert and with very limited experience of the spectrum (I delude myself into thinking) -- I think you very much nailed the head there. Details may be wrong; feel free to contribute.
Nota bene, functionality AND iq do matter. Not just any nutter will do. If you don't mind my saying so.
He can afford it.There goes the ad revenue from the other car companies for MKBHD!
Alex Voigt has this very interesting bit of info:
According to a credible source with access to VW's order book, about 70-80% of weak deliveries are due to demand constraints and not semiconductor shortages (supply constraints) This is likely the case with other automakers too More about this topic later
Not that we couldn't guess this, but it's nice to have confirmation.
According to a credible source with access to VW's order book, about 70-80% of weak deliveries are due to demand constraints and not semiconductor shortages (supply constraints) This is likely the case with other automakers too More about this topic later
Not that we couldn't guess this, but it's nice to have confirmation.
With the advent of EV's this was always going to happen to ICE eventually. I'd be surprised if it's happening that hard already though!
What's worse for VW is that their EV offerings are not seeing the high demand that would in the future, offset the lack of demand in their ICE vehicles. Demand for ID3/4 is abysmal in China and in Q3 in Europe is showing about a 20% decline in sales for ID3/4 across the board.With the advent of EV's this was always going to happen to ICE eventually. I'd be surprised if it's happening that hard already though!
Apparently Tesla has expanded its lawsuit against Rivian for poaching IP. Sounds like there was some core technology theft on the 4680 cells.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
I wouldn't be surprised if Elon tries to bomb Rivian's IPO via twitter given these rather egregious thefts.
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
I wouldn't be surprised if Elon tries to bomb Rivian's IPO via twitter given these rather egregious thefts.
Can you summarize? Some of us aren't really willing to pay a subscription to read Bloomberg
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
he basically said there wouldn't be a refresh of any kind, they change parts out daily, weekly as needed and the car advances.There really wasn’t a cosmetic refresh was there?
Would consider the Pallidium to be pretty much a whole new car save the body panels.
Just my opinion. Subject to change when I finally get my Plaid (ordered battery day when it was the +).
But yet here we are, after all the times he said there wouldn't be a refreshed Model S, we got a refreshed Model S. Now if you want to call it a cosmetic refresh or some other kind of refresh you can. My point was he denied it year, after year, after year, and then it happened.
Historic reference: Osborne Computers. Osborne II killed in the womb because it had been yapped about, so company BK'd.
Not recommendable, generally.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
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